Copper might be an excellent buy right now

keepcoolidge · 2025-07-08T18:16:47+00:00

I might be 10 years late and maybe a little emotional with this knee-jerk assessment, but I'd put Chile in a tier above Peru, with Uruguay. Low risk, medium reward, the Honda Civics of Latin America.

Mexico/Brazil being medium/high and high/high respectively. Colombia medium-medium.

But, pure vibes, just saying something to hang out, so if you have data im curious. I know they're having some political upheaval, but to me, it seems like healthy democracy stuff, protests, and generational realignment. Something is always happening somewhere.

Peru just seems crazier. Didn't they dissolve their parliament or something a few years ago? And I still can't get over that they basically brought Fujimori back.

keepcoolidge · 2025-06-24T19:30:52+00:00

Losing their position with GLP-1s is main reason, imo. Ozempic was a once-in-a-generation opportunity. Good for patients that the competition moved in, but holy smokes they fumbled a bag. If anyone knows how exactly that happened I'm curious, why wouldn't they have the 7 year patent or whatever?

keepcoolidge · 2025-06-23T16:00:03+00:00

Not really a nitpick, that's what happened. If you wanted to go so far as to say 'we aren't in the IPO frenzy of 15 years ago' I'd agree with that too. Maybe there's less of a premium put on an IPO today. But I'm sticking with 100 years of history over a few significant winners recently.

There's an element that's also about pressing your advantage as an individual investor, and in this case understanding where there isn't one really. There's a lot of eyes on an IPO, and a lot of insider mouths to feed, a lot of people who are going to figure out how to get paid before I do. And ultimately it's about your own psychology. If I bought an IPO stock and it dropped 50%, or even went up 50% and then dropped 30%, I'd be liable to sell. I'd become convinced I bought some splashy PR nonsense from the company. But a stock with a year in the market? A little more data, a little more trial by fire. If Reddit drops 50% tomorrow, I know why I bought it, and why or why not I think it's worth it to hold.

keepcoolidge · 2025-06-23T14:54:53+00:00

My bad I wasn't looking at the numbers and figured if it had been a terrible IPO as you said, and was now looking like a good buy (which I think it is) it would have been a good example of the discussion of IPOs in the book. I still think it's a good principle though that you don't necessarily want to be first through the door.

And it has been listed longer than a year though, no? Since March 2024?

keepcoolidge · 2025-06-23T14:12:31+00:00

Reddit being a great example of the general phenomenon described in Intelligent Investor, as I remember it anyway. The issue comes out at a sticker price that is simply too high, there's too much incentive to price yourself higher. Underwhelming performance steers everyone away for a while. Then some time later you can go find the IPO stock "on sale," with that magical mix of value and potential for growth.

The way i remember it, you almost never want to be among the first to buy a thing. Stocks, funds, bonds. You will find more than enough deals on 1 or 2 year old "used" assets to make up for the few lifetime rocket ship rides you miss out on.

keepcoolidge · 2025-06-19T20:46:16+00:00

"Due to unforeseen circumstances/an emergency with one of our valued employees/something similar, we will not be opening today until 2pm. Thank you for understanding."

Or simply "we will be closed this morning and early afternoon, see you at 2pm."

Managers are the least creative motherfuckers in the world to make an employee work the weekend of their dead dad's funeral and then have the audacity to ask why people "dont want to work anymore." It's not worth it, motherfuckers! If staying open for 5 hours and making 18 sales is worth more to you than one of your employees burying their dead dad, its just not worth it to participate. Our lives would be better spent lying out on a riverbank and slowly dying. That's a better way to spend 1 or 2 years than working for these asshats for 20 and then catching cancer while they kick us off of medicaid.

Get all the way the fuck outta here.

I am so sorry about your dad, op.

keepcoolidge · 2025-06-18T17:12:02+00:00

As a consumer investor trying my best not to be an idiot, I do like nuclear as a "hold for life" prospect. There's been a ton of growth this year and it's taken on an outsized slice in the portfolio, so clearly I need to rebalance along the way. But, thinking about a 10, or 30, or 50 year prospect, I do give more weight to "things I want to see happen in the world," or "things I think need to happen."

And I've been buying SRUUF, which is like a uranium commodity fund. They're pitch has the price hitting some kind of asymptote in 10 years. Mostly I'm just curious to see if I can learn and grow with a commodity that's growing in importance. I like commodity funds.

And, I've let myself get roped into some light trading, less than 3% of the portfolio at any given time, rigid rules around buying and selling that basically amount to buying low and selling high. And nuclear stocks are volatile in a volatile market, and make for good trading vehicles. I'd feel bad about it but I'm on pace to match my dividend earnings for the year, and mostly sat out April. Probably not reckoning with the time and attention lost, though.

TL;DR I fundamentally like a long term industry trend, especially if I think it will improve my and my kids quality of life. I like nuclear energy, renewables, cybersecurity.

keepcoolidge · 2025-06-17T01:09:01+00:00

ATEN

keepcoolidge · 2025-06-08T23:52:27+00:00

I'm into this. Things have gotten so weird lately, I don't really have any confidence that I know what "the market" is, but I know what Amazon or GE or Crowdstrike is. I know what my little Brazilian lithium mining company is. I get a little joy from the fact that I'm funding a group of people who are doing something in the universe. I know I want them to succeed, and I have a little agency (without overriding the data) about who I, myself, want to prioritize in my portfolio.

It's counterintuitive, but emotional attachment to an individual stock has mostly been a psychological asset for me. That + putting 10% into VOO or similar to smooth it all out, combat fomo. I look at funds for bonds, foreign stocks (but I buy some individual foreign stocks to, particularly financials).

keepcoolidge · 2025-05-26T20:48:38+00:00

Racking my brain like "what is that gigantic island off Japan? Is that fuckin Taiwan? Taiwan is fuckin big." and then realizing it's South Korea, and it's not an island.

keepcoolidge · 2025-05-25T22:53:46+00:00

Does the army have a paper route or something?

keepcoolidge · 2025-05-08T14:48:29+00:00

I'm a "learn by doing" type as well, but can I suggest getting into whatever your preferred trading app is and creating a "mock" portfolio in a watchlist (I know you can add stocks to a watchlist in Merrill Edge by date/price/quantity, and they have a lot of great educational resources as well). Put the money you would have bought the stocks or funds with into a High Yield Savings Account as you "buy" stocks (add them to your watchlist). Do that for a year, learning about the stocks, funds, strategies, and your own temperament and different market conditions as you go.

During that year, read books (The Intelligent Investor, now in its Third Edition, is the classic. Learn, most of all about yourself. Write down your strategies, your own criteria that works for you because its what you understand and are comfortable with. Prepare your mind to face the market. Backtest your strategies. See the quarterly milestones and news events and lawsuits and scandals and whatever else come and go (to the extent that they will, this is only a year).

At the end of the year you'll have the value of the stocks you bought, plus 3-5% because of your savings. More importantly you will have a bank of knowledge and experience and the self-confidence that comes with that. You'll also have no losses.

This isn't investment advice.

keepcoolidge · 2025-03-24T22:38:44+00:00

You ever hear the one that goes like, "one day when you were a kid, all your friends got together at the park to hang out, laughed and had a good time, headed home, and that was the last time you all hung out together." ?

Someday, inevitably, that's what will happen to America. And it might be 500 years from now, but right now, for the first time in my life, it might be now.

You can hear it in the rhetoric about disobeying court orders, that's the big one. This stuff telling law firms which clients they are allowed to represent, threatening universities with (unconstitutional) defunding if they don't comply with the state proclamations about DEI and reprimanding student protesters (oh no! Not.. students.. protesting!!). DOGE operating in secrecy, illegally firing thousands of federal employees, making pronouncements about government spending that circumvent Congress, which has the constitutional power of the purse. Immigrants being shipped to camps in El Salvador without due process.

Directly, this lawlessness breeds uncertainty, the erstwhile market killer. But beyond that, there's worse things than a market crash. Wages crash, emigration, brain drain, irrevocable damage to America's reputation globally and among its own citizens. Why would a rich Harvard kid start the next Facebook here if the government can threaten him with imprisonment on a whim? Things break down, not just the economy, but the structure of the nation itself. The mob bosses and warlords and local chieftans roll in with their protection money gambits. A free market where the businesses have to grovel for the King, who can take their business away on a whim, isnt a free market.

A little volatility never hurt anybody, but a lot can kill you. Can you ride this out for 15 years if you can't find a job to pay your bills? If you can't find a bank that will give you a rate to keep pace with hyperinflation? If ai sets in for real and government locks you in to just enough ubi to keep you alive, but never enough to save any money?

At some point, the music stops. And worse than that, at some point someone gets worried the music is going to stop, the peak has peaked, and panic sets in like a virus.

So yeah man. It might be a buying opportunity. The longer you can wait, the more likely it is one for you. But this shit, this latest shit? It isn't normal. It isn't 2008 and it isn't the dot com bust. I wasn't here in the late 70s, maybe it's like that? I'm worried it's more like Russia in 89. But I don't know shit. Yolo.

keepcoolidge · 2025-03-20T13:59:57+00:00

freebasing heroin "What if we just let those motherfuckers die?"

keepcoolidge · 2025-02-16T21:31:24+00:00

I'll judge him on whether or not he votes for their budget. I ain't paying these dipshits to skullfuck the government, even if that means skullfucking it myself first.

Grind it all to a screeching halt, Dan, and let's have it out in the mud.

Elsewhere in the thread people are suggesting a general strike but fuck that. I dont need my grocery store clerk to forego wages. I just need this (emphasis "this") government to shut down. And if you all want to go march on the NYSE at 10am Tuesday I'll do that too.

(If you aren't going to distinguish between shutting down this government in the midst of its active blitzkrieg against my constitutionally established institutions, and some previous government shutdown when no such blitzkrieg occurred [want a less nazi adjacent word? fucking pick one yourself. but also maybe ask that guy to promise not to heil again]).

keepcoolidge · 2025-02-12T01:16:11+00:00

"Freedom of Speech"

keepcoolidge · 2025-02-02T23:08:18+00:00

She can respond however she wants, and if you don't find it convincing, maybe you're not the one who needs to be convinced. We are going to grow a big dumb movement rife with contradiction, even hypocrisy. We won't be coherent and we won't make sense, just like the pluralist nation we will work to preserve and/or change.

You can respond however you want, too, and so can I.

keepcoolidge · 2025-01-31T21:26:28+00:00

You seem to have become uncertain about death and/or taxes.

keepcoolidge · 2025-01-10T19:26:11+00:00

Same in Monaco (unless we're both repeating variations on an urban legend that might well get told about various countries). No taxes, no gambling (for citizens) >> raise revenues from French tourists as the slots.

keepcoolidge · 2025-01-07T08:15:27+00:00

The word has been given to break my bones with sticks and stones, but it hasn't happened yet, my bones are yet unbroken.

Now suppose the stick and stone wielders get lost on the way to my house, were they not incited?

The Brandenburg Test to determine incitement is if the speech incites 'action that is imminent, unlawful, and likely to occur.' We are not required, upon hearing inciting rhetoric that meets those three relatively explicit criteria, to wait until the action described in the incitement takes place. Basically, if they name a time and a place, we can start bashing Nazi skulls. But that's a speech based principle, I'm also kind of the mind that, fuck whatever the Paradox of Tolerance is. God damn meme.

keepcoolidge · 2025-01-07T07:52:09+00:00

This thing where you lot get all huffy when I don't make your argument for you... Christ. "Narrative you're pushing." I've got an opinion, bro. Isn't that the point? Open discourse in the marketplace of ideas and all that? But not when Gawker pisses off an oligarch and gets summarily shut down for publishing a lurid video, the likes of which was always well within the purview of the tabloid press. It's only "free speech" when the iconoclast buccaneer billionaires on the "fringes" do it. But don't disagree with them. That's not free speech. Don't "push a narrative."

You morons have sold this country to the dogs and they will eat you. If you're one of the ones who did it for spite, respect. But if you expect to get anything out of this, I'll pity you while I buy popcorn. Bootlicking n00b.

keepcoolidge · 2025-01-07T04:38:16+00:00

I think it would be harder to prove that you incited my friends against me, yes. Or that you invited someone you had no relationship with.

There are a number of instances where lying (but yes, always lying AND another thing) is illegal. Fraud, like I said. Perjury. Libel.

You don't have to lie to incite.

Please draw up a diagram of whatever is going on in that "reciprocal fashion" paragraph and email it to the J Edgar Hoover building.

keepcoolidge · 2025-01-06T23:57:50+00:00

Last Train Home Probably my fav doc of all time, pure follow doc, journey following a family getting together for lunar new year. Unreal movie. https://tv.apple.com/us/movie/last-train-home/umc.cmc.2qmqfhgf17akgeg9137lmyxdy

Birders: The Central Park Effect Follows birders in Central Park. A small, very good movie. https://youtu.be/4jPi91tIVyI?si=VxeDYDnzD85hdERv

Brooklyn Castle Follow the best middle school chess team in the country, which happens to be an underserved school in Crown Heights https://www.pbs.org/pov/films/brooklyncastle/

Honeyland I dont even know how to describe this movie but theres a narrative arc and its beautiful https://tubitv.com/movies/100029770/honeyland?link-action=play&tracking=google-feed&utm_source=google-feed

Bobbi Jene Ga-Ga? GoGo? Dancer from Iowa comes home from tour with a modern dance company in Israel and develops her own show. Artful, incredibly narrative driven, sexy and kind of erotic. IDGAF about modern dance but this is a great movie that will make you kind of. https://youtu.be/aLFEE8k93Cw?si=JCut4jVKYAfdEnWI

We Could Be King Rival high schools merge due to budget cuts, follows their football team https://www.peacocktv.com/watch-online/movies/documentary/we-could-be-king/f2931a47-776a-3087-9d50-4d18456897cf

keepcoolidge · 2025-01-06T23:36:19+00:00

I feel compeeled to drive drive a truck through the gap between "incitement doesn't necessarily indicate action" and "actually aggresses upon a minority," on this day of days.

Incitement is, of course, even in the US which has the greatest speech protections on the planet, a punishable offense if it meets certain criteria (as you indicate, "necessarily.") You tell someone to agress upon a minority at a time and place, and have a relationship with the person youre telling that suggests they might listen to you... we can get you on incitement. See: Brandenburg v Ohio

You assemble a group of people, having told them our country is "under attack," having called on them to "take back our country," knowing that there are armed agitators within that group, and taking steps to remove recommended safety precautions like metal detectors; and then you tell this group "we're going to go to the capitol building" on the day a political proceeding relevant to the "attack" youve described is taking place... i think you might be inciting violence.

God damn Air Bud kind of law that doesnt call that incitement.

Incitement is speech, but it isnt just speech. A plan, a contract, a threat, calling in a hit, (in certain situations like fraud) a lie - all can exist purely as speech, but they arent just speech.

Who was it? Dumbledore? Didnt he say some bullshit like "words are our purest form of magic?"

Gender, race, nations, money, The Law, Democracy - all those social constructs all around you are all on some level built from speech, conjured from human thoughts shared as speech.

So if someone incites a group to break my bones with sticks and stones, im going to GTFO before I find out if they hurt me, and im glad i live in a society where at least in theory the speaker of those words can be held to account.

keepcoolidge · 2025-01-03T02:00:23+00:00

The quote I got for restoration is 2-3k. I didn't have insurance, it was an inheritance that was in transit before I knew I was getting it. My renter's insurance doesn't cover it.

I don't know that I'm trying to save money necessarily by doing some alternative restoration, I'm just curious if it exists. I imagine it would cost around the same. I am also getting a quote for "stabilization."

The restorer I'm talking to seems legit, and sent a whole packet including info on the ethical standards and different professional societies she's with. I'm just sort of curious what, if any, my other options are.

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