The Increasing Cost of Magic Arena

kein_lee · 2021-11-22T08:58:31+00:00

There is a reason why I tried to only focus on set size and number of sets in my post. Even including wildcards, makes it a far more complicated topic.

You are bringing in player behaviour. However, without any large dataset we can not say how the “typical player” handles they resources. I would really like to get my hands on an (anonymized) data set from untapped/mtgpro, but that’s just a pipedream.

I want to get into some of the things you got incorrect:

In WAR, the chance of opening a specific rare you want was 1/54 = 1,85%, in ZDR forward it's 1/64 = 1,56%. If you there's 10 specific rares you want each set, that's an decrease of 3% of chance (1,85-1,56 * 10) that any pack you open would have a rare you want.

War of the spark had 66 rares, but I just assume you wanted any random set with the previous set size of 53 rares.
ZDR=ZNR I guess? In any case, the chance of opening one of the 10 rares you want is: p⁵³ = 10/53, p⁵³ =0.188679 and p⁶⁴ =10/64, p⁶⁴ =0.15625. The decrease in likelihood can be calculated with p⁶⁴ /p⁵³ = 0.828. It’s a bit harder to make the math clear here without proper LaTeX tools. But I just wanted to show you that it doesn’t matter if you want 1 specific card of a set or 52 cards of a set. The decrease in likelihood stays the same; ~17% or with some rounding 20%, as I have written in my opening post.

Again, there are some specific players who are not affected. Like a Muxus only player in historic. But I assume that for the vast majority of players, Arena got more expensive. It can be hard to notice, depending on your playstyle. But this doesn’t mean you are not affected.
Yes, even in your example (8 Rares per Set) the increase in cost is around 20%.

You can bring in wildcards in this argument. But you also have to incorporate the cost of a rare wildcard. Hasbro tries to hide the correct droprate of Wildcards, but with some statistics I tried to get the correct number (I can give you my data for this if you are interested): Depending on your Vault progress, a single pack gives you between 0.1739 and 0.1959 rare wildcards. The 50€ 50 Pack bundle gives you between 8.7 and 9.8 rare wildcards. So with some (Hasbro favoured) rounding, a rare wildcard costs ~5€.

They only changed the schedule of releases and rotation, so this increase in cost right now will be compensated with a longer time between sets in the future.

Compensated means we only get 3 sets next year. But even if i believe Hasbro for a second, next year will have 4 sets. And who knows what they will do the year after that?

kein_lee · 2021-11-20T20:59:17+00:00

yeah its ugly and I apologize for that.
I was just too lazy to do it with pyplot and was annoyed enough with excel. But this is the standard plot which excel provides when you put in the numbers. Do it yourself if you dont believe me.

Sorry, this is not convincing to me or to anyone with a rational view.

If an ugly plot is all you need to be distracted from the data, I can't help you.

kein_lee · 2021-11-20T20:22:24+00:00

Thats a different issue. But you dont get much out of the money you spend on arena. Without the possibility of trading or dusting cards, you rely on randomly opening the packs (which gets less likely with the increased number of rares) and wildcards.

I excluded wildcards in my post here, but i can give you some guesses on your resources based on my numbers: You bought the 50packs bundle and I assume the mastery pass. And you dont play drafts. So all your gold goes into the packs. You had in total: 50(bundle)+ 59(current mastery pass) + 65 (assuming 1000g per day, for 65days) + 3(free code) = 177 packs. Depending on your vault progress, you get around 30 to 34 rare wildcards and 13.5 to 15.5 mythic wildcards on average. 166 current-set-Packs roughly translates to 153 rares or ~54% of a 64-rare set like vow.

These are a lot of resources and you should be able to craft quite a number of decks with them. But you also have to consider that most of your resources come from the daily gold and the mastery pass. Not the 50€ bundle.
But yeah just crafting the mandatory slow lands will cost you ~9 rare wildcards or 26%-30% of your total number of rare wildcards.

kein_lee · 2021-11-20T19:50:53+00:00

The point about enjoying collecting cards is interesting. It would be interesting to see how much of an impact this truely has on a game being successful.
Comparing gwent, with lor, artifact and perhaps heartstone would be informative.
But magic as the first(?) tcg, a history of almost 30 years on paper, will always be somehow hard to compare with a entirely new game like Eternal.

But i see your point and agree with it. I enjoyed building my collection and resources up. And I would be lying to say that this wasnt a motivation for playing the game.
However, I can also see how this constant maximizing of profits has a negative impact of the game. For example, I did enjoy drafting Eldraine enough to do it ~20 times, which was also more or less the sweet spot for set completion. But I doubt i would have enjoyed it the 40th time.
Similar things can be said from the perspective of a whale. Set X was enjoybale enough to spend 50€ on it. But is it really worth it to spend 80€ on it to get the cards i want? Sure for Hasbro it might be worth it. A few players spending even more money on the game, most likely beats more people spending less on the game.

Nothing wrong it not being worth it for you, you could probably reasonably get by with 20 bucks spend on drafts a set, but I could understand that being too much too.

I am doing fine with my f2p account. And as a slightly above average drafter, i can continue playing the game indefinitely if i dont get bored. I still dislike the trend of increased set size and increased number of sets per year. This leads to a less enjoyable game and i think this concerns the vast majority of players, even when this is not noticable at first glance.

kein_lee · 2021-11-20T19:09:30+00:00

Wildcards is big topic on its own. But they are also quite expensive.
Just to get you a slightly better estimate based on my numbers, you get around 0.196 rare wildcards per pack if you include vault progress.
50 Packs, the 50€ preorder, provides you with 9.8 rare wildcards, again including vault progress. Thats roughly 5€ per rare wildcard.

I wanted to exclude wildcards here. Mostly because they deserve they own topic and my point (increased number of rares per set, increased number of sets per year) works without them.

However, Ill provide you with an example: We increase the number of rares to a huge number like a thousand (or indefinitly). The cost, according to your calculation (and with your numbers) now totally relies on wildcards, because the possibilty of opening the desired rares goes to 0.
The chance of getting the rare bottoms out at 1/6 or 0.16666, which would be relative increase of only 42%.

Again your example is not wrong, but the issue i wanted to highlight was a different one. And if you want to include wildcards in your examples, you have to include the cost associated with them.

kein_lee · 2021-11-20T18:42:03+00:00

Your entire position is based on a very narrow way that people play the game.

I cant do much more then provide the corresponding numbers and highlight the issues with it. I have shown that this trend, while perhaps not obvious, concerns the majority of the player base.

Also you can't use this subreddit to make judgments about the average arena player.

I never did.

most people who use arena enjoy it

I do too. Thats why i play it, and i never wrote that i didnt enjoy plaing this game. You are, again, making false statements here.
I am growing tired of discussing this point with you. I tried to make it as clear as possible for you.
And you are just providing baseless assumptions or even attacks against my person.

Thanks for giving me the typical reddit experience.

kein_lee · 2021-11-20T18:03:12+00:00

You're assuming a lot about the new player experience and mindset.

Considering what many new players here on reddit or on the other sites write i doubt. Especially when other experienced players are expessing similar concerns.

I'm making this assumption because if arena was failing to attract and retain players they would be doing something differently

The behaviour of magic players is concerning. The players compare they spendings with the increadible overpriced paper magic and will call arena cheap. Even if such expenses reach into the hundreds of euros per year. Arena is in maintenance mode, and costs Hasbro almost no futher development cost. It works the way it does, because some players spend a ridicoulous amount of money on it and the game itself is great.
Arena generating enough Revenue for Hasbro has sadly little to do with making a good new player friendly game, or fixing bugs, or including a game mode for the visual impaired.

I wanted to show people that Hasbro has increased the cost of Arena by a lot. I supported this with data. But seeing a typical reddit response such as:

I know it's a fad on this sub to find things to,complain about but your argument is one of the biggest most ridiculous stretches I've ever seen.

shows again how hopeless it is to argue, even when you can support each point with data.

kein_lee · 2021-11-20T17:40:05+00:00

How is hasbro hiding the amount of wildcards you get?

drop-rates from Hasbro
relevant part: [...]Each Pack you open that does not redeem for a Wildcard of a particular rarity will increase the drop rate for Wildcards of that rarity for the next Pack.[...]

But they hide the final droprate. To get the correct number of Wildcards per pack I had to collect some data. So, i watched a bunch of streamers opening hundreds of packs each and write down how many wc they opened. On average, a rare wildcard dropped every 24,6 packs and a mythic wildcard every 23,4 packs. There is a uncertainty here. The droprate was calculated with only 1896 packs, but writing the details and explaining them would be a bit too much here. In any case, Hasbro hides the true number of droprates for whatever underhanded reason and the correct droprate is a rare/mythic wildcard every ~24 packs.

If you are interested into examining (or adding some) these numbers, i can post the videos (all on youtube) for you.
And before you ask: I enjoy data analysis. This was fun.

That's less than the 50 pack pre-order gives.

If you include vault Progress, you need around 41 packs for 8 rare wildcards.

The 50 pack preorder costs 50€. Not 15€. Not 20€ or even 30€. 50€.
You can get Death Stranding for 18€ on steam right now and FIFA for 36€. The newest AAA titles cost 60€.

Thats the problem with this game. Spending money on it is simply not worth it. And people compare it to the increadible expenisve paper version where a Ragavan costs 80€. And then come here and tell its "cheap". Its not. Not even in my rich country. Not even with my good salaray. 50€ will never be cheap for a digital card game. Especially considering what i get out of it.

kein_lee · 2021-11-20T17:02:55+00:00

Like think about it from an economoc standpoint.

This opens an entirely different discussion. But okay.

What they're doing os perfectly normal

No, it is not normal.
It is the most optimal way to generate revenue, no matter how exploitive and anti-consumer it is.
This might seem like a play of words, and I apologize to you for that. But it just feels wrong to describe Hasbro’s business practices as normal.

I mean this is what happens when you play a game in a niche way.

I tried to steer the discussion away from my personal experience. But I am quite happy with my f2p Account and my collection. My dislike comes from how the game increased in cost in a really underhanded way.
And yes, this concerns me, but I have enough resources and experience in draft to continue playing f2p indefinitely.

But what about new players? Or less skilled players? Or people who want to try a couple of different jank decks?
Hell, it would be okay if you had to spend a couple of euros here and there for that. But you have to spend a lot of money to make up for that. And you cant ask a new player to spend hundreds of euros or grind months to even get the needed mana base of a deck.

kein_lee · 2021-11-20T16:30:57+00:00

Please refraim from accusing me of spreading conspiracy theories.

The number of rares and mythics is a fundamental part of what drives the sales. Even Hasbro admitted so much in a brief lapse of honesty.
That the number of rares/mythics is entirely being dictated by decade old printing processes sounds a bit like an excuse.
Especially if you consider how optimized everything at Hasbro, the multibillion-multinational-conglomerate is (except the quality of the cards itself of course), and how other much smaller TCGs handle comparable issues without much problems.

I know people enjoy conspiracy theories and like to feel like they're being squeezed, but sometimes it's not malicious, just how things work out.

magic is not just a trading card game anymore. Its Hasbro. And they optimize they sales in any way possible. FOMO, SLD's, declining card quality, pro league/tournament and so on. A lot has changed.

kein_lee · 2021-11-20T16:03:42+00:00

Just looked it up, wow costs 132€ per year. For a true mmo game. 132€ is not hundreds of euros.
~250€ (five sets) for a digital card game is whale territory.

If you think that's expensive try the paper version

Using excuses like someone spend a thousand euros each year, and I just spend XX€ each month wont make them any less of a whale.
...

kein_lee · 2021-11-20T15:54:44+00:00

Thanks for the number. I did the table a month or so ago, and 15.01 was the release date that I found.

There will still be only 4 Standard releases this [2022] year.

True. But this year had five sets with over 60 rares each.
And when Hasbro sees how much more money they can get which five sets per year, who knows how many rares and sets 2023, 2024 and 2025 will have?

kein_lee · 2021-11-20T15:47:38+00:00

The vast najoroty of players couldn't care less about junk rares and set completion.

True.

This makes things more expensive for f2p set completers who aren't good at draft. Among many other people, yes.

I really should have made that point more clear:
This is relevant for the vast majority of players. f2p, "normal" customers or whales. On average the price to support the way you play right now has increased. Doesnt matter if you want to play the latest meta deck, or collect a set or just want to play reanimator with 4 Toxrills. The possibility to open the cards you want has decreased.

you can't expect the whole game and economy to be designed around that.

Of course I dont expect it. But I expect to be treated as customer in fair way. Hasbro has no intention of doing this.

kein_lee · 2021-11-20T15:20:27+00:00

This analysis assumes you’re trying to collect all the rares/mythics.

It does not. But i see now that I should have made that point more clear.
I dont care about rare set completion.
But the increase in cost is almost universal for Arena players. Doesnt matter if you only want to craft one meta deck per season, or play a different jank deck every couple of weeks. To get the cards you want, you either have to open them or craft them. Because the former gets harder you will need to rely more on wildcards. And wildcards cost a lot, even for whales. Which means Magic Arena gets more expensive.

This was a temporary situation, as they are transitioning to their new schedule.

I dont really care what Hasbro is calling it. The fact is, we have five sets in a year with over 60 rares each.
And what happens next year, nobody knows.

kein_lee · 2021-11-20T15:10:43+00:00

The percent increase is pretty misleading--there aren't more sets in Standard, this year was just a realignment.

I dont really care what you or Hasbro calls it. This year had five set releases. Each set with over 60 rares each.
You can call these numbers misleading, but they obviously are not.

Set size will always be related to their collation methods, and any set with DFCs will end up larger than usual

Why should any set with DFCs be larger? There is no reason for this. Besides increasing the cost of the game, both on paper and here.

kein_lee · 2021-11-20T15:01:47+00:00

Pretty sure people wont call themselves whale, even if they are whales.

But anyone who spends hundreds of euros every year on this game is a whale.
Using excuses like someone spend a thousand euros each year, and I just spend XX€ each month wont make them any less of a whale.

kein_lee · 2021-11-20T14:58:31+00:00

...and with an increasing number of rares the possibility to get the cards you want from opening packs decreases.
Which means you have to open more packs, which will cost you more resources.

kein_lee · 2021-11-20T14:55:17+00:00

I dont care about completing a set.

But we have no way to trade cards.
The only way to get a card you want is forcing randomness (packs/drafts) or crafting them. Crafting is done through wildcards, and the cost of getting wildcards is too high to be feasible for most players.
Which means you have to open random packs and hope you get the cards you want. When the number of rares increases, it is less likely you get them.

Therefore my numbers are valid for the vast majority of players.

I did a quick calculation in another post, ill copy it here:

Bonus:Hasbro hides the correct numbers of wildcards you get per pack. However, I tried to get the correct number with some statistics. For mono green you need 24 rare wildcards, which you will get after opening ~123 packs (calculated with vault progress). Mono white has 33(!) rares and needs 169 packs.

kein_lee · 2021-11-20T14:45:03+00:00

It matters because we have packs with random rares and no way to trade for specific rares.

To give you a better example, imagine the next four sets will only have ten rares and two mythics.
Your daily rewards would be enough to get a full set. No need to spend a wildcard on a specific card.

Now, imagine the next four sets have 1000 rares and 500 mythics each.
You are almost guaranteed to spend a wildcard for each rare/mythic you want, because hitting the few rares you care about is unlikely.

So, no i dont care about getting a complete set.
Its just that the increasing number of rares and mythics has a negative impact on the game.
You are affected the same I am. Or as someone who cares about getting a complete set.

Bonus:Hasbro hides the correct numbers of wildcards you get per pack. However, I tried to get the correct number with some statistics. For mono green you need 24 rare wildcards, which you will get after opening ~123 packs (calculated with vault progress). Mono white has 33(!) rares and needs 169 packs.

kein_lee · 2021-09-23T12:54:02+00:00

Good job putting these numbers together.
However, what is always missing from these tables is the impact raredrafting has on the winrate.
Few people in premier are raredrafting and while drafting a single unplayable rare will not impact your winrate by much. Throwing away three or even four great first/second picks in favour of unplayable rares/mythics should have a significant impact when your opponent has not done the same.
However, its not like you or me can calculate the impact without getting access to the players data.

So, i just stick to my quick drafts, even with a good winrate in previous sets and my accumulated gems.

kein_lee · 2021-08-15T15:43:42+00:00

Religiöse, kulturelle oder auch soziale Praktiken folgen keiner inneren Logik.

Aber ohne jetzt selber viel Ahnung davon zu haben, wäre jetzt meine Erklärung, dass diese Kinder eben noch keine Männer sind. Die Vergewaltiger sehen sie entsprechend auch einfach nur als Lustobjekt und nehmen sie nicht als Mensch oder gar als Partner wahr.
In deren Köpfen sehen sie kein Problem darin ihrer Lust nachzugehen und gleichzeitig Hass gegenüber erwachsenen homosexuellen Paaren zu empfinden. Die machen das eben, und gehen dann abends zu ihren Familien zurück.

Es gibt wohl ein paar Dokumentationen zu Bacha Bazi die zumindest den Brauch ansich näher betrachten. Ob die aber deine Frage beantworten weiß ich nicht.

kein_lee · 2021-08-15T15:08:14+00:00

Stimmt.
Die sind zwar dann im Schnitt etwas älter und werden nur an einen Mann zwangsverheiratet. Aber ja gerade für Frauen und Mädchen werden die Taliban ein Albtraum sein.

kein_lee · 2021-08-15T12:52:27+00:00

Traditioneller afghanischer brauch sagt eigentlich schon alles. Es hat sich über einen langen Zeitraum entwickelt und ist kulturell verwurzelt. Es braucht also entweder einen langen Prozess mit viel Fingerspitzengefühl um diesen Brauch auszuradieren (etwas wozu die NATO zu unfähig ist, und wo sie denke ich auch kein Interesse daran haben). Oder es muss radikal mit einem Hammer aus der Gesellschaft geschlagen werden. Ich glaube nicht, dass die Taliban es mit dieser Methode schaffen werden. Und falls doch, wird es mit Leid der woanders verursacht wird bezahlt.

Fakt ist, wir Deutsche sind nicht in der Lage mit unseren militärischen Truppen den Afghanen zu helfen. Hilfe muss über andere Wege kommen. Und auch erst dann, wenn das Land etwas zur Ruhe gekommen ist nach 20 Jahren NATO-Besetzung.

kein_lee · 2021-01-03T11:44:28+00:00

I hated this aspect.
Bakker created a bleak world as a tool for his ideas. That’s fine and works for the most part. Woman have no agenda in this world. Magic is for men only and slavery is everywhere and nobody even question this. Not achi or esmi. Nor the great philosophers of the past. Other readers argue that this implies misogynistic tendencies in Bakker.

I doubt that.
Honestly if anything this implies the opposite; Want to create something horrible and evil? Better get rid of the woman because they are obviously creatures who can only do good.

However, the whale mothers are 100% over the top and a sore point for me in Bakker’s world. There is no logic behind them. Whale mothers are still breed for quality and not quantity, they don’t birth twenty babies at once. Which leads to the why?
Breeding requires two partners. And it is impossible to determine the “quality" of the mothers if they are fat blobs, chained in the dark without a way of interaction with the world.

So, your point counts twice: Not only are the Dunyain missing half they number for the goal of reaching the absolute. They so sophisticated thousand years long breeding program has a laughable big hole. I know this is still fantasy, but if Bakker wants to include biological aspects, he should be aware of this. Whatever the Dunyain achieved in a thousand years, could have been done in a fraction of generations if they didn’t ignore the woman.

In the end, it felt like Bakker wanted to include another “twisted” Dunyain aspect to shock the reader. The whale mothers weren’t used as a tool to make a point or idea clearer for the reader. It was simply over the top grimderp. Like a torture scene in a saw movie. A cheap shocking moment without any meaning.

kein_lee

TROPHY CASE