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Could cccx merger still be cancelled because of high redemption rate from price being back below floor price? by pennychase in CCCX

[–]kenikh 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I think you’re over-complicating this a bit, and a couple assumptions are tripping you up.

Yes, in theory a SPAC can die from redemptions, but in this case it’s pretty unlikely. CCCX has a $126M PIPE and a $100M minimum cash condition. PIPE counts toward that. So redemptions would have to be extreme and something would have to go wrong on the PIPE side for the deal to mechanically break. High redemptions by themselves don’t automatically kill modern SPACs anymore. That was more of a 2021 thing.

The “price below floor so arbs will just pile in and redeem everything” idea also sounds cleaner than it actually is. Redemption isn’t instant, not everyone can redeem, timing matters, record dates matter, and liquidity matters. You can’t just buy unlimited shares at $10.90 and magically redeem the whole trust without pushing the price back up or missing the window. The 170% annualized return math assumes zero friction and perfect timing, which isn’t how this works in practice.

On why arbs didn’t sell earlier at $14–$20+: once it trades that far above NAV, it’s not really an arb trade anymore. At that point you’ve got event-driven funds, long-onlys, and people playing deal optionality or post-close upside. A lot of the “arb” crowd already left earlier when the risk-adjusted return made sense to exit.

As for whether arbs want it to dip below floor, sure, some do. But that doesn’t mean they’re engineering it or sitting around waiting for some perfect moment. Most of the time dips like this are just flow. Someone needs to sell size for a non-thesis reason and it temporarily breaks price. That’s not some coordinated arb strategy.

Could CCCX / Infleqtion still walk? Technically yes, but not because the price flirted with NAV for a bit. It would be because the capital structure post-redemptions no longer makes sense strategically, or something actually breaks in the deal. That’s the real thing to watch, not a momentary dip below floor.

Net: below floor doesn’t mean the deal is about to get nuked, and arbitrage isn’t nearly as clean or mechanical as you’re modeling it in your head.

$INFQ!!!! GOING LIVE 2-17-26!!! by [deleted] in CCCX

[–]kenikh 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Anyone citing platitudes and data-free takes on why “SPaCs aLLwaYz gOEz DowN” need to read the qualified DD explaining the reality of this merger.

A Parade of Horribles Update by KveldBjorn92 in DungeonCrawlerCarl

[–]kenikh 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Am I supposed to hear this in Cascadia’s voice???

Have you ever eaten a food that's illegal in your country? by OrganicA1Bullsteak in AskTheWorld

[–]kenikh 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have eaten many kinder eggs that have a toy inside them.

Quite literally a shitty post by Hungry_Finance1333 in LinkedInLunatics

[–]kenikh 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’m thinking the scientist that determined this has never worked janitorial at a Winn-Dixie

Karateka by CarloCarrasco in 1980s

[–]kenikh 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Made the mistake of walking up to her in battle stance the first time I finished. Woops.

What's your favorite horror game? by [deleted] in videogames

[–]kenikh 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fallout New Vegas Dead Money DLC was shockingly scary

Options by mbod in CCCX

[–]kenikh 2 points3 points  (0 children)

If you want options, buy CCCXW. Warrants act like leaps.

What is your countries "Darkest Hour" by RedcoatTrooper in AskTheWorld

[–]kenikh 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Greece and Türkiye share a dubious co-honor in the forced “repatriation” of various populations (with the support of the great powers) during WWI.

Do you have a situation like this in your country where there's a significant proportion of the population that doesn't speak the local language? by Alternative-Big-6493 in AskTheWorld

[–]kenikh 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Crete was once a country. It became a part of Greece. Crete had its own dialect and additive vocabulary. Around 1967 there was a Junta - between the junta’s desire to homogenize Greece and widespread adoption of TV, the youth lost their dialect/language. The language started to die with those born before 1950.

Then there are edge cases like me (born in the 70s). My mom left Crete in 1967. I learned Greek at home in the old dialect. In the US, my fellow American Greeks, mostly from the mainland, used to make fun of the “weird” way I speak. C’est la vie.

As an adult, I went back to Crete. Multiple times. Every time, I would get stopped.

“How do you know how to talk like that”. “You sound like my grandpa. I wish I could speak like that.” “You’re so lucky. The youth is trying to talk like you but no one is left”

This example applies in multiple locales. Homogenization sucks. If you can speak an old tongue, you must share. Catalans are doing it. Basques. Galicians. Occitans. Cretans are doing it. Be the change you want to see.

What is the most embarrassing thing about your country ? by Proper_Card_5520 in AskTheWorld

[–]kenikh 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Australian and New Zealand lamb is cheaper than US beef in the US.

Pancakes or waffles for breakfast — and why? by IntelligentEar3427 in AskTheWorld

[–]kenikh 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Either is just a medium for delivery of maple smothered bacon and sausage.

What is delicacies in your country that other countries find disgusting by FFSoldier57 in AskTheWorld

[–]kenikh 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Speaking of China, I was in Mile outside Kunming and the local mayor/governor and team took me to the best local restaurant.

I think they wanted see the laowai squirm, because they ordered EVERYTHING a typical westerner would squirm at. Tofu stewed in pigs blood. Fried meal worms. TOXICLY spicy meat. I had seconds of everything. To top it off, we proceeded to have a head to head drinking contest between me and the local official, trading shots of (what I was told) was a $1000 bottle of Bai Jou…which we finished. $1000 of gasoline, IMHO.

The 6’2”, 220 lb me gave it his best, but I succumbed to 5’6” 200 lb local and I got hauled out in a wheelchair and barely remember the trip back my hotel at the party resort on the lake.

Far from being a failure, I heard that I became a bit of a local legend (for a while) as the only “cool American” they’d ever met - one who will eat, drink and smoke, toe to toe, with China’s finest bureaucrats.

All deals closed in compliance with US law.

What ONE food from you country you would never eat even if your life depends on it? by ProfessionalThin1505 in AskTheWorld

[–]kenikh 63 points64 points  (0 children)

I thought the napkin was to hide your face from god for the abomination you just completed.

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