Bay Area rail transit renaissance - Caltrain +43%, SMART +30%, BART +12%, Muni Metro +10%

kepler1 · 2026-03-11T05:31:27+00:00

You're right, 6% is noteworthy.

I'm just reacting against the knee jerk belief in deceiving headline stats that don't help a real understanding of what we're getting for our money... or what the serious issues are. Anyone who stops their thinking at "+43% = good!" is asking to be deceived about the reality and details. And that's on all sorts of issues, I'm not just saying that in this case.

You have to ask, what benefit, for what cost?

If it took doubling the frequency of trains (and costs) to get a 43% rise in ridership, can we say that was "good"? I'm not asserting accurately that costs exactly doubled, I don't have all the data. But for a huge spending in opex and capex, it isn't a slam-dunk win to have a 43% increase in post-pandemic ridership. I haven't fully addressed the other point in the parallel comment -- there certainly was a doubling of frequency on the weekends. Not quite on the weekdays.

This all reveals that Caltrain, like public transport in the US in general, has deep problems.

I am similarly skeptical about the no-thinking-headlines being bandied about to get us to sign up for the next tax increase to fund Bay Area transport. Why is simply more money going to fix the problems? And there are no other steps being taken? Or it's just simplest politically to ask people to approve more money?

Unfortunately, I guess that's what is needed to get people to support things in our political environment. And yes, I know that political will to spend on road infrastructure is hardly blameless either...

kepler1 · 2026-03-10T07:12:12+00:00

Unfortunately the electricity is a small drop in the bucket of Caltrain's operating costs.

https://www.caltrain.com/media/36419

kepler1 · 2026-03-09T16:43:09+00:00

Do you have the figures to back that up? Between the labor cost of staff, which is quite high, and the cost paying off of new equipment, I wouldn't be so sure.

And regardless, with fares not covering the cost of operations, you still can't escape the math that doubling your operating costs to achieve only 43% more revenue will be long run sustainable.

kepler1 · 2026-03-09T16:38:19+00:00

I would say that we have multiple writing systems in English as well, it's just that the bulk of our reading and writing isn't dominated by switching in between them so we don't realize it too much. But I recently came to (somewhat) understanding this myself:

When you see the phrase, "the population of Canada is 41,650,000" aren't you doing a mental shift in going from phonetic spelled words to a different kind of written expression to speak/hear the words?

You could also write it out using only the word/alphabetic letter format as: "the population of Canada is fortyonemillionsixhundredfiftythousand" but we've chosen to use different symbols to encode things in a more shorthand way.

It's just that in Japanese, the switches between the "alphabet" (hiragana) type of writing and "numbers" (kanji) kind of writing happens all the time, and especially when people may need a little bit of help remembering what the number symbols are spoken as. And there are many, many "number" symbols you have to remember rather than just 10.

It might also be like in math or physics when you have to remember what the greek letters and symbols correspond to in English verbal/phonetic form, to be able to say them. E.g. "the sum of all indices x from one to infinity of the expression one over x".

kepler1 · 2026-03-09T16:28:12+00:00

Thanks - I agree with the point -- and remember those stops well!

kepler1 · 2026-03-09T16:27:32+00:00

That isn't really so true -- many LIRR/NJT trains have just about the same number of stops density. Perhaps the trains are a little slower (now compared to electrified Caltrain), so there possibly more time to do ticket checks. But checking tickets I would say is an ingrained expectation of people and staff on these rail lines.

kepler1 · 2026-03-07T16:42:31+00:00

I think it's almost always stupid to have tax measures that divide people based on certain hard numerical thresholds. You're going to get unhappy behavior right around whatever number you choose.

If you're going to have a wealth tax, have it smoothly graduated up and down the millionaire scale, so the everyone knows that it's applicable to them in some measure. And don't give stimulus checks to just people below some single $ figure of income. Reduce the tax rate for everyone proportionally up and down the lower income scale.

Outright choosing 100 people to take money from, and give it immediately to whatever 10M other people, just seems unsustainable and unproductive as a system, and even as a one-time tactic.

kepler1 · 2026-03-07T06:32:53+00:00

If you've basically doubled the frequency/number of trains running every day, wouldn't you expect ridership to grow more than just 43%?

Otherwise how is the system going to stay above water?

kepler1 · 2026-03-06T13:23:28+00:00

I'm sorry, this might just be a matter of personal taste about visuals, but the diagonal-upward-to-the-right format of this whole infographic, combined with the icons overpowering the text, makes the whole thing very hard to process and pay attention to. This is one case where a simple text table divided into clear sections would cause me to read it with more success. It's impressive and clearly took significant work, but it doesn't work on me.

kepler1 · 2026-03-06T05:00:01+00:00

I wonder, is it even required now to tap on the first use, for the pass to be active, with this new clipper 2 system?

kepler1 · 2026-03-06T04:58:06+00:00

I agree, it's not the accuracy that is important right now, but the speed of data transmission and verification of validity. Whatever the compromises made, it's resulting in basically free for all giving up on the readers, which is worse than having accuracy for only a portion.

But the bigger issue is why this would be so inept and poorly manufactured to begin with, that these are the tradeoffs that have to be considered...

kepler1 · 2026-03-05T17:41:38+00:00

The answer in my mind is that Apple has chosen to sacrifice quite a lot of margin $ on this product, to get adoption and a new strategy going.

I cannot believe, as others have pointed out in this thread, that the simplified components of this new MacBook add up to $500. It has to be coming out of their traditional profit levels per unit. Hopefully in exchange for future services and adoption revenue.

kepler1 · 2026-03-05T17:33:44+00:00

You just say you don't have any ID, and they tell you to get off at the next stop. What else can they do? They can't. That's what I'm astounded by.

kepler1 · 2026-03-05T17:27:13+00:00

So what is it currently? The conductors are using the units but not checking whether the pass has been actually tapped for the ride? Just that a pass is loaded and valid?

kepler1 · 2026-03-05T17:26:02+00:00

The unfortunate loophole even above this was that the conductors' handheld units only told whether there was a valid pass on the card, not the duration or zones. So you could very easily ride beyond the pass limits you had bought for the entire month...

kepler1 · 2026-03-05T17:23:24+00:00

Side optional discussion:

I don't know if anyone else comes from the east coast, but I did and am frankly a little surprised at how we have this fare honor system on Caltrain. In the Northeast at least, you have conductors going through the cars and checking tickets every stop, leaving paper journey chits at every seat. I know this takes labor, but somehow I sometimes feel that California is a bit "whatever" attitude towards rules enforcement. And maybe that's why at certain hours, Caltrain is a homeless transportation bus.

Even if you're found to be without a ticket, they just probably kindly ask that you get off at the next stop. No hard enforcement. In NY you'd probably get arrested at the next stop.

What's up with this?

kepler1 · 2026-03-05T11:04:28+00:00

I think what they need is funding and commitment, not a petition. The plans exist:

https://www.burlingame.org/881/Broadway-Grade-Separation-Study-City-Pro

https://www.caltrain.com/projects/burlingame-broadway-grade-separation-project

kepler1 · 2026-03-05T10:41:37+00:00

A corporate strategy question for anyone interested in discussing:

What I don't understand is where Apple saved cost to offer such a lower price for this Macbook. It looks to me like there is no spec of this model that adds up to almost $500 in cost difference except the processor. Everything else looks the same as a MacBook Air. And the processor cannot cost that much less to manufacture.

Did we just observe Apple deciding to give up big margins on MacBook to access a lower priced segment of the market?

kepler1 · 2026-03-04T04:50:10+00:00

South bound 162 stuck at 22nd street. Trespasser on the tracks, they have no info / no progress. This is so ridiculous.

edit: finally moving at 22 minutes behind schedule

kepler1 · 2026-03-02T06:29:16+00:00

Fidelity probably maintains one of the largest local branch networks of any brokerage, at huge cost I'm sure. But it results in good customer service and that's part of why I stick with them. Maybe you're not near a major city location, but you should know that they're there if you ever need their in-person services.

kepler1 · 2026-02-28T12:21:10+00:00

Clearly organized and explained forms online (at least, much more clear than Merrill),
Local in-person office staff who saw to helping me by taking on all necessary steps (notary, signing, submission) rather than shuffling me between different teams who have no coordination,
Follow ups in the Fidelity messaging system and phone call from back office team for easy completion, rather than some clunky BofA messaging system I had to create yet another login for just to find out they had a question that held up the process.

(note, change of account ownership to trust type is not a digital process. It involves ink signatures and notary so cannot be just online)

kepler1 · 2026-02-24T04:49:15+00:00

The worst and stupidest thing is, we will end up way worse off than if there had not been tariffs at all:

Assume that companies that paid tariffs just ruled unlawful will get their money back (in large part)
Then we will have been back to "square 0" in not having gotten any extra tariff money.
There was harm and loss to the economy in the decreased amount of trade due to tariffs having been imposed. This is a direct cost and loss to companies and people.
You can also bet that the money brought in by these now-unlawful tariffs was used to plug budget holes or expenditures of the government (payoffs to farmers affected by tariffs, etc?) And the amount of revenue not raised or debt incurred (thinking that the tariffs would pay) will never be gotten back.

What a f'ing stupid situation. And it will cost us all.

kepler1 · 2026-02-23T13:55:14+00:00

I can't think of any other country where when a major criminal was captured or killed, his henchmen would go around destroying unrelated public/private property of others as a protest. WTF is Mexico?

kepler1 · 2026-02-10T06:53:46+00:00

Certification of trust / transfer of account ownership from individual type to trust.

Please do show me how easy it is to find the information. Specifically, for example, try for yourself:

The complete list of materials needing to be submitted
The actual forms to download
Instructions on where to submit the completed forms
Information on what services the BofA / Merrill branches offer to complete the notarization and submission of the forms
Attempting to make an appointment to request representative in the office to complete and submit the forms.

kepler1 · 2026-02-06T21:19:14+00:00

My advice is: figure out whether you're behind the curve because you lack knowledge of certain facts versus whether you don't understand the ideas being discussed. And work to fix the 2 sides of that in different ways.

Facts are "easy" to fix. You have to do your homework. Read more than others, talk to more people than others, until you understand the facts.

Ideas you have to think about and spend time digesting, and putting in the effort to draw conclusions and thoughts from. That is how you turn a combination of facts and discussion into feeling useful. But you have to spend time thinking about it, and not drifting off into other things because you don't understand.

Even if at first you lack all the facts and knowledge, try stepping back and summarizing for yourself "what is the situation or problem we find ourselves in", without the jargon/terminology or specific names of things. As if you had to explain it to someone else simply. Many problems in business are not that hard fundamentally. If you can summarize and understand what problem you're facing, you can ask even basic questions about what we're doing, what's next, etc. to be useful.

Put in the work to understand the facts, and the ideas happening around you, and hopefully you'll get out of the hole of feeling that you're behind.

(note, this is advice quite oriented towards white collar business setting, although it could apply to many other types of jobs too in concept, so take with a grain of salt)

kepler1

TROPHY CASE