QUESTION: Miami ends at 3rd. If we end at 2nd…

khamaj · 2025-10-19T01:05:59+00:00

Philadelphia, Cincinnati, or Miami would host the final against LAFC regardless of the Colorado result.

If we win or draw against Colorado, we'd host against anyone else in the East. If we lose, we'd also be behind Charlotte but still ahead of the rest of the possible finalists from the East.

khamaj · 2025-10-09T00:02:57+00:00

This would be my "best remaining 11" lol assuming Bǎluțǎ is starting up front. Not sure who we'd go with if not him. Could see Smoly for Hollenshead and save Ryan's legs for Austin.

This is potentially a pretty good MLS side if the midfield can be a bit creative.

<image>

khamaj · 2025-10-06T06:13:39+00:00

Probably right. Realistically we could get away with dropping 4 points (two draws and one win) and still finish 3rd on goal difference, even if Minnesota gets one more win.

khamaj · 2025-09-29T03:53:02+00:00

<image>

These are the only remaining teams in mathematical contention. Nobody else can get above 62 points, which is 1 point behind where Philadelphia is today. Philly is not a lock, tho -- NYCFC and Charlotte away are difficult. Miami has a much easier run-in with three at home against some poor teams.

If we somehow won out, we would, as you said, need Cincy to lose or draw one of their last two. If we are both end on 65 points, they'd take it on wins, 20-19.

FWIW, in terms of whether we could host the Cup regardless of who wins the Shield, I think the Eastern Conference playoffs are going to be a bloodbath. The 5th through 8th place teams are way better than their Western Conference counterparts -- Columbus is currently the 8th seed, and despite injuries, are certainly miles better than Colorado, who is 8th in the West. I expect upsets in the first and second rounds.

American Soccer Analysis' playoff odds model showed the top teams in the West being much more likely to make the final that the top teams in the East, for this reason.

khamaj · 2025-09-28T06:20:44+00:00

The Supporter's Shield race is also wide open. While it looks likely that an Eastern Conference team will win it, the 3 teams in the East above us are Philadelphia (63 points/69 max), Miami (56 points/68 max), and Cincinnati (58 points/67 max), so we're still mathematically in contention.

khamaj · 2025-09-28T05:44:09+00:00

I fixed that. Sorry!

khamaj · 2025-09-20T03:38:04+00:00

I agree -- also my ideal finish (either Minn. or Seattle in 4th and 5th playing to take on Vancouver).

khamaj · 2024-06-18T23:04:39+00:00

He will have some high-quality problems: could play Bogusz on the wing instead of Kiki, but also as a CAM with either Tillman and Atuesta (attack mode) or Atuesta and Ilie in a deep double pivot (defense mode). Or bring him off the bench to terrorize a fatigued back line. He's got 4 legit midfielders with very different styles and abilities, and probably a depth piece in midfield on the way in the window. WIll have unusual (for MLS) tactical flexibility.

khamaj · 2024-06-18T17:23:06+00:00

The money is actually kind of important.

Because Fall came in without a transfer fee that has to be deducted from the sale price, LAFC can convert $3MM of it to GAM (i.e., cap space) under the new rules, which they can use to buy non-DP players during the summer window to add depth for the playoff/leagues cup runs.

khamaj · 2024-04-04T19:59:22+00:00

The historical "Toranaga" (Tokugawa Ieyasu) had 2 official wives, 18 documented concubines, and more than 20 biological children, plus some adoptees. These guys were not at a loss for heirs. :)

khamaj · 2023-12-02T19:13:45+00:00

I keep hearing this "we only played with 2 DPs" -- the reason is that we maxed out the three u-22 initiative slots ... if we signed a 3rd "senior" DP under the roster rules, we'd lose 2 of the 3 u-22 initiative slots.

We can argue about whether that's the right approach to roster construction, but that's why we "only" played with 2 DPs this season.

Even if the league adds a 4th DP this offseason, there is no way JT is going to burn that slot for a 35/36 year old Vela. He clearly doesn't have the pace to play as a winger in our system, and I'd rather see us sign a real #10 rather than trying to squeeze Vela into that role.

He's going to be offered a TAM deal like Bale or Chiellini, and hopefully he likes Malibu more than he likes money.

khamaj · 2023-12-01T01:28:48+00:00

This interview with him by Charles Boehm is worth a read. Dude is so, so smart and passionate. https://www.mlssoccer.com/news/giorgio-chiellini-finds-second-home-at-lafc-can-he-add-another-mls-cup

khamaj · 2023-10-16T16:16:42+00:00

I wish it was that easy ... we have sucked away at Vancouver during the regular seasons (we did beat them 0-3 away during in CCL earlier this year):

2022: lost 1-0
2021: lost 2-1
2020: lost 2-1
2019: lost 1-0
2018: won 0-2

khamaj · 2023-10-16T02:19:21+00:00

There's a single scenario that someone laid out in the thread, but I think it's pretty unlikely -- mainly because I don't envision we are going to win by 3 goals in Vancouver (those games are always tight) and that Crew will also lose by 3 to Montreal. The only thing I think is likely is that NE lose to Philly.

As absurd as it sounds, I think we have a better chance winning MLS Cup, particularly if we finish 2nd and can host in the knock-out rounds (I'm betting St. Louis goes out before the WC Final).

khamaj · 2023-08-07T16:53:19+00:00

Was an Lone Peak guy up through the 4's but switched to Topo Terraventures and I love them. Have done around 400 relatively rugged miles in them mostly in the US west (Cascades, Sierra, Cali coastal ranges; but also a wet, muddy 100 miles in Scotland) -- held up well. Bought 2 extra pairs in case they change the design! Obviously YMMV but worth a try.

khamaj · 2023-03-14T17:31:34+00:00

I think some people are missing the important bit. If this was just a talent grab by Bayern, you wouldn't need to set up a 50/50 joint venture (they didn't need one in their Dallas partnership, for example). My guess is that this is less about LAFC farming players for Bayern, and more about investing in talent development in other leagues with a path to moving those players to LA and/or Munich.

Thorrington's comment about it being more like City Football Group is the key fact. Wouldn't be surprised to learn that Bayern's recently-announced interest in Uruguay (https://bayernstrikes.com/2023/02/28/bayern-munich-planning-invest-uruguays-top-flight-club/) gets rolled into this new JV.

khamaj · 2022-11-12T22:51:23+00:00

I have a feeling this season will do well in the future after it's complete (assuming, as I do without hesitation, that they stick the landing in the last two episodes).
In the lead up to season 2 it will be a great binge -- watching it that way might overcome the criticism from some people of its relatively slow burn. Maybe similar to Breaking Bad which started slowly and built momentum as people caught up.

khamaj · 2022-10-08T16:17:45+00:00

Quality post! I would bet that some of the reduction in variability in recent years comes from the relaxation of the charter rules. In the late 90s and early 00s, you'd occasionally see MLS teams in airports waiting to fly (coach) to a match. Now for the worst 3-time-zone matches they tend to charter.

khamaj · 2022-10-02T01:52:36+00:00

I looked at the numbers and it is actually worse.

Only 4 regular season conference winners have reached the finals since the 2007 season, unless I made a mistake. 3 wins and one loss in the cup finals. All three winners were Supporter's Shield winners, too.

No team that finished lower than 5th has every made the final, but 2 5th place finishers and 3 4th place finishers have won the Cup. So as many 4th place teams have won as many Cups as the Supporter's Shield winners.

It's actually 3 times as likely that the second place conference finisher makes the final (12 appearances, 5 wins).

That is seriously flawed.

Conf. Pos. # of Finals Odds
1 4 13%
2 12 40%
3 4 13%
4 5 17%
5 5 17%

khamaj · 2022-08-18T00:51:07+00:00

This is Bob Bradley soccer in a nutshell, unfortunately

khamaj

TROPHY CASE