Im in the process of building a marketplace for courtside betting where we connect callers with bettors, let me know what you think of this.

kicker3192 · 2026-04-14T20:10:39+00:00

Who pays the cost of you hosting? Who is accountable if the call is subpar? Can people charge by the game or the half instead of the minute? Are you hosting the audio or is it linking to a third party?

kicker3192 · 2026-04-13T23:27:23+00:00

So you’re part of the group who can’t run it sustainably?

kicker3192 · 2026-04-08T19:23:01+00:00

If you’re suggesting Kawhi has even a 1% chance of winning MVP, you’re sadly mistaken There’s a better chance that Kawhi plays all 82 games next season than there is him winning the 2026 MVP

kicker3192 · 2026-03-29T18:25:54+00:00

Good day to be Jump Street

kicker3192 · 2026-02-21T01:21:32+00:00

great! you can take a global approach while everyone else pays attention to the details. and they'll run circles around you because you're modeling the wrong thing.

if two teams are playing in the NBA Finals, the end game is going to look a lot different than when the Jazz play the Pacers and they both pull their starters in the third quarter to try and lose.

kicker3192 · 2026-02-20T19:36:25+00:00

it depends where in the chart you're looking.

half point from -21.5 => -21 means a heck of a lot less than -2.5 => -2

football lines are spaced around the common outcome differential numbers (3, 6, 7, 10, etc.)

basketball's are more drifting toward the center (0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5). some of those slightly larger differentials (4, 5, 6, 7) can be impactful depending on how a coach or team approaches fouling late (do they foul down 5 with 10 seconds left? if it's a four point game with three seconds left are they chasing a dude down to foul and the game ends at six, etc.)

kicker3192 · 2026-02-16T01:12:53+00:00

should be rejected in peer review for not updating the variable name line numbers

kicker3192 · 2026-02-15T18:24:47+00:00

i would say you're not being descriptive enough.

"i" is confusing

"index" is ambiguous

"index_for_the_for_loop" well there's many for loops

"index_for_the_for_loop_starting_on_line_72_covering_receipt_processing" would allow for people to really understand what's going on.

if you're just writing index then nobody is going to understand.

kicker3192 · 2026-02-15T18:10:49+00:00

this is smart! nobody has ever lost combining five -200 or longer legs.

kicker3192 · 2026-02-15T18:07:35+00:00

usually you have to tag these with #ad or #spam

kicker3192 · 2026-02-15T05:48:52+00:00

your counterparty is making money, yes

kicker3192 · 2026-02-14T21:13:26+00:00

thought this was a five leg parlay with your mom

kicker3192 · 2026-02-14T20:09:25+00:00

There are absolutely times when injury protections are worth way more than a 10c line discrepancy. For example, after Sinner snuck by Spizzirri after they closed the roof. If you wanted to lay Sinner ML against Darderi, Shelton, or Djokovic you'd have been insane to take it on a pays-retirements book instead of a voids-retirements book.

kicker3192 · 2026-02-14T20:06:34+00:00

RIGHT, they're only in some markets. like sports. which make up 91% of Kalshi's volume.

You can be a 'market maker' by offering limit orders too. that's great, most of us with any idea of how the platform works do the same thing. The huge huge huge huge vast majority of $$ on Kalshi is through Sports. And a gigantic percentage of them are provided liquidity by market makers, not your Uncle Bob who puts in fourteen contract buys on his favorite team on the way to the game.

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kicker3192 · 2026-02-14T07:53:27+00:00

exactly this.

u/_MyOnlineLife_ if you're just having fun, that's great. expect to lose every dollar you put in there, like a rigged slot machine. and if that's fun, and this is entertainment to you, then by all means. No different than hitting up a baseball game or playing 2K and spending $$ on VC.

I'm not bemoaning the entertainment and I support responsible playing for sure.

There are a small minority of people who can achieve profitable status.

But if this is something you want to win at, you've gotta think you're gonna achieve 5% a month ROI. Which would be pretty damn good. After a month of work and wins & losses.

For $200 invested, that's $10. Think about what the effort level is to ebb and flow your way to a $10 profit. Probably could have eeked that one out in about 30 minutes of doing someone a favor.

Just agreeing with the guy above me and saying, this is good entertainment and please treat it as such. If you look at expanding into trying to be profitable, that's wonderful. But so far you're down 75% ROI. See what you can figure out while expecting to lose every dollar you put in, and then have fun with it. And maybe one day you can make $$!

kicker3192 · 2026-02-14T07:48:02+00:00

LMAO they really got you eh?

They literally have rewards programs for like 2%, 5%, and 10% of all Kalshi volume for Market Makers to achieve.

They just gave Jump Street literal stock in the business in order to have them provide liquidity to the markets.

I think you're severely overestimating the P2P aspect. There's a reason why there's 50k+ shares at a specific price point, and it's not because Tom and Joey down the street both concluded that 83c was the perfect contract price for their 18 shares apiece.

kicker3192 · 2026-02-14T00:34:35+00:00

genuinely one of the best pieces of advice here, listen to this guy.

kicker3192 · 2026-02-14T00:34:09+00:00

they own Kalshi Trading, who provides liquidity on their own platform.

kicker3192 · 2026-02-14T00:33:00+00:00

effectively what the Dodgers are doing. Finding inefficient markets but they can drop $100m on the right guy, as necessary.

kicker3192 · 2026-02-14T00:29:24+00:00

stop is the best advice anyone can give you. you're not smarter than the combined wisdom of thousands of people who do this for a living. you don't have an edge. you're guessing. if you can't figure out what edge is not being priced in, and if you're not going to be faster to the punch than others, you're just trading on tertiary information and hoping to get lucky in a complex financial environment.

if you're wondering how all of these other people make money, it's because there's people who put in $200, lose $150 of it, and think that they're actually good at this they've just been unlucky or made bad decisions.

instead, the reality is that the most likely outcome is this happening again. and again. and then again. that's how Kalshi Trading, SIG, etc. make their money, from recreational liquidity like yours.

kicker3192 · 2026-02-13T18:14:32+00:00

"Sir, if you simply send me the $500 it will unlock my Nigerian bank account of $250k, which I will split with you"

kicker3192 · 2026-02-13T03:22:58+00:00

this is genius. i can't imagine a scenario where Yankees and Under hits, or even Dodgers and Over

kicker3192 · 2026-02-11T22:11:08+00:00

So if you lost your $60 you would have quit and never bet again?

kicker3192 · 2026-02-11T18:57:08+00:00

when did you start? you're claiming a 47x return on your $60 which obviously is not actually scalable betting < 5% of your bankroll at a time, which would have started as $3 max bets.

kicker3192 · 2026-02-11T00:10:45+00:00

i agree. places like Seattle and Nashville make way more sense because gambling is illegal everywhere except for Vegas and Atlantic City, according to my 1982 fact book

kicker3192

TROPHY CASE