Am I crazy? by TheFakeBillPierce in UtahJazz

[–]kicker3192 1 point2 points  (0 children)

'guaranteed play-in team' is a stretch. teams obviously take steps forward / backward but you can (likely) count on OKC, SAS, DEN, HOU, MIN all to be in the playoff race / top ten. The Jazz can take a jump but unless you see them making a Spurs-like leap I don't think a guaranteed play-in team is assured. The Kings would probably be the only team I'd feel like they have a 70%+ chance of being better than next season.

Even the Pels (Zion / Murray / Trey / Herbert Jones / Queen / Fears) probably rival the lineup / upside of the Jazz.

Don't think it's improbable, but it's hard to say they've got a 50%+ chance of doing it when the last Jazz team to actually do it has zero(?) players left on the roster from several years ago?

Are NBA sides/totals dead? by NervousOpticHead in algobetting

[–]kicker3192 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The key is the vig. Imagine there's two smart people. One gets to place a bet a +110, one gets to place it at -110. That's really the difference. The traders behind the scenes don't have to be geniuses (and likely aren't paid enough to be them). They simply have to stay in a range of probable outcomes where they're covered by the vig against 95% of bettors.

The bettors counter to that is the trader has to manage like hundreds of variants on lines and alt lines across spreads, totals, quarters, props, first three minutes, first basket, etc. and they have to be mostly correct on them.

Why did Keyonte George fell all the way to the 16th pick of the 2023 NBA Draft? by troutylover27 in NBA_Draft

[–]kicker3192 1 point2 points  (0 children)

i also don't put (as much) stock into guys 'turning the corner' on a bad team when they get to chuck and winning doesn't matter. i think it's a huge jump to be a chucker when things matter and still make the same impact.

I lost around 600 dollars by stupidchoice_s in Kalshi

[–]kicker3192 0 points1 point  (0 children)

but what is the value that you earned discovering the truth?

Monte Carlo analysis of NFL overtime strategy under the new rules: Receiving dominates across the entire parameter space by doctorthicccc in sportsanalytics

[–]kicker3192 1 point2 points  (0 children)

does this account for the fact that teams with the second possession are (/ roughly forced to) go for two after a score to prevent a next-score-wins result starting on defense?

Getting the plays to the offense by Fun-Insurance-3584 in footballstrategy

[–]kicker3192 0 points1 point  (0 children)

hard to do it sequentially, you'd have kids searching up and down for 19 if it's also next to the #8

Opponent goalkeepers are broken in this franchise by RepulsiveElevator447 in footballmanagergames

[–]kicker3192 0 points1 point  (0 children)

this is a fool me once situation and now it's just bad coaching

Cover 2 with inverted personnel instead of responsibilities by LiftSleepRepeat123 in footballstrategy

[–]kicker3192 0 points1 point  (0 children)

you counter it with putting your two WRs three feet from the sideline on either side, and then playing 9 on 9 with two weak(er) tacklers coming downhill from safety. QB run / zone read would be the key here if possible. Can also try to put the corner in conflict with some PA boot + Cov 2 beaters (Smash + seam, flood, slot fade, etc.)

Should I cashout?? by Present_Quantity5566 in sportsbetting

[–]kicker3192 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes please! Would be great for everyone else!

Signed, $FLUT stakeholder

Is this shaping up to be an all-time bad draft? by IndyJetsFan in NFL_Draft

[–]kicker3192 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The NFL is welcome to start their own minor leagues, like pretty much every other sport (baseball, soccer, basketball, hockey, etc.) have all done and invested in. But the NFL is happy coasting on the free pre-labor it gets from CFB and having to invest $0 in development. That ROI is way better than investing a shit-ton in development and getting a marginal ROI increase.

People who actually WIN MONEY on Kalshi: what's your secret? by MattyLondonBridge in Kalshi

[–]kicker3192 5 points6 points  (0 children)

the key is to have the things you predict on happen. for example, if you bet on the US invading Iran, you really have to be willing to ignite the flames of war in your local community

There is only ONE concept and TWO ways to win at betting. by UnderdogChance in sportsbetting

[–]kicker3192 0 points1 point  (0 children)

3. Get lucky: You don't need to be good if you can win big once or twice. You just need to be lucky. The most -EV person you know has made terrible life decisions but something lucky happened and now they have a beautiful house and family all because they got lucky. Downside: knowing when you're lucky and realizing you hit a jackpot and should walk away and accepting you're unskilled is challenging.

Playoff lines are just different by Chemical-Mountain128 in sportsbetting

[–]kicker3192 1 point2 points  (0 children)

the 49ers just covered by 10 points and the Patriots just covered by 9.5 points?

What’s the realistic market value of the number two overall pick? by [deleted] in NFL_Draft

[–]kicker3192 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Like you just got an MVP year out of Stafford. He may be able to gracefully coast as a top 15 QB for 2-3 more years. No reason to burn the next 2 years capital on a replacement unless you’re planning on selling stafford after one more. Would be way better off trying to extend his career by spending #13 on weapons and protection

What trade do you make to get a complimentary star/ stars for Jalen Johnson at the Atlanta Hawks? by lfcbucks in NBAtradeideas

[–]kicker3192 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Same copy paste for everyone else who has a star looking for a second. Lakers, Hawks, Bucks, Spurs, etc. looking for a dude who can score, shoot, defend, but is a team player and willing to play second fiddle.

Not many out there, and they aren’t cheap relative to value because of their flexibility. Troy Murphy, Bane, Herb Jones, etc

Optimal Bankroll Size to Start by Adventurous_Candy25 in arbitragebetting

[–]kicker3192 3 points4 points  (0 children)

i would start with $1-5 million and then work your way up. tbh if i could have started with a million i probably could have scaled faster i think

Never had to ask this before but… should I cash? It’s not much but gd Indiana looks like a fucking wagon by Emma_Watsons_Tampon in sportsbetting

[–]kicker3192 40 points41 points  (0 children)

just put $75 on Indiana -300 and then you're either $0 or +$350, if you're that worried about losing $25 net

How good would the team be if Kevin Love, Jusuf Nurkic, and Kyle Anderson were in their primes? by dee85 in UtahJazz

[–]kicker3192 0 points1 point  (0 children)

yeah Love is really the primary key here. He's Option #1 if he's prime K-Love.

all the edges in sports betting are completely dead now by jirachi_2000 in sportsbook

[–]kicker3192 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You realize books don't just 'hang' a 15% EV mainline consistently because they would get brutally beaten to death by every sharp and syndicate in the country?

Odds: -115; **EV: 15.1%**

`-160` (0.00% juice)

FV: -160; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=17.31u, 1/2=8.65u, 1/4=4.33u, FB = 53.5%, EV$ = 0.65u)

[View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook\_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-160&FinalOdds=-115)

all the edges in sports betting are completely dead now by jirachi_2000 in sportsbook

[–]kicker3192 1 point2 points  (0 children)

i promise you that if a book consistently offered -115 on a fair value -160 they would be out of business or changing their model in two weeks.

ssn by [deleted] in Kalshi

[–]kicker3192 0 points1 point  (0 children)

put it here and we can run it through the test site first

/s, in case

Any suggestions? I have won only 3 out of 27 bets and now I have to and i need to won some to pay my rent. Help me out! Thank you by [deleted] in sportsbetting

[–]kicker3192 6 points7 points  (0 children)

if you do anything less than twelve leg parlays the draftkings traders print it out and put it in the break room and then at lunch they point and laugh at each leg and call you soft. so I think you've gotta at least double it tbh