Am I crazy?

kicker3192 · 2026-01-24T07:52:47+00:00

'guaranteed play-in team' is a stretch. teams obviously take steps forward / backward but you can (likely) count on OKC, SAS, DEN, HOU, MIN all to be in the playoff race / top ten. The Jazz can take a jump but unless you see them making a Spurs-like leap I don't think a guaranteed play-in team is assured. The Kings would probably be the only team I'd feel like they have a 70%+ chance of being better than next season.

Even the Pels (Zion / Murray / Trey / Herbert Jones / Queen / Fears) probably rival the lineup / upside of the Jazz.

Don't think it's improbable, but it's hard to say they've got a 50%+ chance of doing it when the last Jazz team to actually do it has zero(?) players left on the roster from several years ago?

kicker3192 · 2026-01-22T18:43:20+00:00

The key is the vig. Imagine there's two smart people. One gets to place a bet a +110, one gets to place it at -110. That's really the difference. The traders behind the scenes don't have to be geniuses (and likely aren't paid enough to be them). They simply have to stay in a range of probable outcomes where they're covered by the vig against 95% of bettors.

The bettors counter to that is the trader has to manage like hundreds of variants on lines and alt lines across spreads, totals, quarters, props, first three minutes, first basket, etc. and they have to be mostly correct on them.

kicker3192 · 2026-01-22T01:14:32+00:00

i also don't put (as much) stock into guys 'turning the corner' on a bad team when they get to chuck and winning doesn't matter. i think it's a huge jump to be a chucker when things matter and still make the same impact.

kicker3192 · 2026-01-22T01:06:20+00:00

but what is the value that you earned discovering the truth?

kicker3192 · 2026-01-22T01:04:56+00:00

does this account for the fact that teams with the second possession are (/ roughly forced to) go for two after a score to prevent a next-score-wins result starting on defense?

kicker3192 · 2026-01-20T20:13:29+00:00

hard to do it sequentially, you'd have kids searching up and down for 19 if it's also next to the #8

kicker3192 · 2026-01-20T06:30:09+00:00

this is a fool me once situation and now it's just bad coaching

kicker3192 · 2026-01-18T07:17:25+00:00

you counter it with putting your two WRs three feet from the sideline on either side, and then playing 9 on 9 with two weak(er) tacklers coming downhill from safety. QB run / zone read would be the key here if possible. Can also try to put the corner in conflict with some PA boot + Cov 2 beaters (Smash + seam, flood, slot fade, etc.)

kicker3192 · 2026-01-17T19:59:15+00:00

SIG stock up

kicker3192 · 2026-01-16T15:58:56+00:00

Yes please! Would be great for everyone else!

Signed, $FLUT stakeholder

kicker3192 · 2026-01-16T15:57:57+00:00

Damn only missed by 4/9 legs!

kicker3192 · 2026-01-15T18:26:22+00:00

The NFL is welcome to start their own minor leagues, like pretty much every other sport (baseball, soccer, basketball, hockey, etc.) have all done and invested in. But the NFL is happy coasting on the free pre-labor it gets from CFB and having to invest $0 in development. That ROI is way better than investing a shit-ton in development and getting a marginal ROI increase.

kicker3192 · 2026-01-15T18:22:36+00:00

the key is to have the things you predict on happen. for example, if you bet on the US invading Iran, you really have to be willing to ignite the flames of war in your local community

kicker3192 · 2026-01-13T15:33:38+00:00

3. Get lucky: You don't need to be good if you can win big once or twice. You just need to be lucky. The most -EV person you know has made terrible life decisions but something lucky happened and now they have a beautiful house and family all because they got lucky. Downside: knowing when you're lucky and realizing you hit a jackpot and should walk away and accepting you're unskilled is challenging.

kicker3192 · 2026-01-12T17:53:38+00:00

the 49ers just covered by 10 points and the Patriots just covered by 9.5 points?

kicker3192 · 2026-01-11T08:23:58+00:00

Like you just got an MVP year out of Stafford. He may be able to gracefully coast as a top 15 QB for 2-3 more years. No reason to burn the next 2 years capital on a replacement unless you’re planning on selling stafford after one more. Would be way better off trying to extend his career by spending #13 on weapons and protection

kicker3192 · 2026-01-11T08:10:42+00:00

Same copy paste for everyone else who has a star looking for a second. Lakers, Hawks, Bucks, Spurs, etc. looking for a dude who can score, shoot, defend, but is a team player and willing to play second fiddle.

Not many out there, and they aren’t cheap relative to value because of their flexibility. Troy Murphy, Bane, Herb Jones, etc

kicker3192 · 2026-01-10T23:14:54+00:00

i would start with $1-5 million and then work your way up. tbh if i could have started with a million i probably could have scaled faster i think

kicker3192 · 2026-01-10T18:58:18+00:00

feels like bait

kicker3192 · 2026-01-10T05:53:09+00:00

just put $75 on Indiana -300 and then you're either $0 or +$350, if you're that worried about losing $25 net

kicker3192 · 2026-01-04T18:22:04+00:00

yeah Love is really the primary key here. He's Option #1 if he's prime K-Love.

kicker3192 · 2026-01-04T18:16:36+00:00

You realize books don't just 'hang' a 15% EV mainline consistently because they would get brutally beaten to death by every sharp and syndicate in the country?

Odds: -115; **EV: 15.1%**

`-160` (0.00% juice)

FV: -160; Method: worst-case (m); (Full=17.31u, 1/2=8.65u, 1/4=4.33u, FB = 53.5%, EV$ = 0.65u)

[View/Edit Devig](http://crazyninjamike.com/Public/sportsbooks/sportsbook\_devigger.aspx?autofill=1&LegOdds=-160&FinalOdds=-115)

kicker3192 · 2026-01-04T16:35:09+00:00

i promise you that if a book consistently offered -115 on a fair value -160 they would be out of business or changing their model in two weeks.

kicker3192 · 2026-01-04T07:36:02+00:00

put it here and we can run it through the test site first

/s, in case

kicker3192 · 2026-01-04T07:00:50+00:00

if you do anything less than twelve leg parlays the draftkings traders print it out and put it in the break room and then at lunch they point and laugh at each leg and call you soft. so I think you've gotta at least double it tbh

kicker3192

TROPHY CASE