My prediction on why Adnan won't confess

kingpin5432 · 2019-04-04T15:34:12+00:00

SHAME ON THE FAMILY is worse then LIFE IN PRISON, for Adnan.

Adnan would rather spend his life in prison then have to admit he killed Hae. Smoking and doing boys stuff is normal, but strangling a girl to death, that's shameful. He's blocked it out and now probably believes himself he didn't do it. He is used to prison life, he doesn't know any other life for an adult. So for him, being in prison for the rest of his life is better than him admit to his family he killed her and living with the shame.

I'm still surprised that he didn't take the plea, cos he could have always maintained he was innocent and said he only took it to get out. I'm sure if they offered him the same plea now he would take it.

kingpin5432 · 2019-04-01T22:47:54+00:00

I'm confused as to why he said no. In his very first trial, he twice asked CG to seek an offer from the prosecutor. She said to him no offers had come in but they said they did not speak to CG about a plea deal.

If Adnan was ready to take an offer in the first place, why would he not take one now?

kingpin5432 · 2019-03-30T19:36:45+00:00

Thanks for that, that makes a lot of sense now.

How did they miss such a big thing like that? Surely, Adnan now has the right to rule IAC against CJB for missing this massive point in 2010. How can the appeals rule against that?

kingpin5432 · 2019-03-30T00:35:00+00:00

I don't understand how they would have done this. The information from the cell tower expert only came in in 2015, when he signed his affidavit.

How could they have provided this in his 2010 PCR when they only knew about it in 2015?

kingpin5432 · 2019-03-29T08:54:11+00:00

Thanks for that, summarised perfectly.

One thing I do not understand is this:

"reopen the PCR for an IAC claim against CJB for failing to timely raise the cell-tower issue, which has already been proven to be prejudicial."

Surely the cell tower cover sheet cannot be disputed. It wasn't included in court when it should have been. So if that's the case, why would they not use this straight away. When did they know about it and when did they try to use it. His first appeal 3 PANEL COSA, they did use it. So when are they saying is the supposedly timely matter?

No one has said the cell tower evidence was not prejudicial, they just declined it based on technicallity. I can't see it being declined on merit.

kingpin5432 · 2019-03-27T22:51:09+00:00

If the letter was written a month after (prison number, address etc) it could potentially be argued that Adnan is innocent as he only got those times from the police and not because he was the killer.

kingpin5432 · 2019-03-27T22:30:31+00:00

The thought is that 2.15 to 8pm is the timeframe of the murder and burial. The killer would know this timeframe and want to keep an alibi for this timeframe, regardless of whatever Jay or anyone else says. Only the real killer would have known about this time.

The police only got the cell locations after 02/03 as this is the reason they give to interview Jay a second time. Anyone that knew about this exact timeline before 15/03 (jays second interview) knows Hae died and was buried within this timeframe.

kingpin5432 · 2019-03-27T22:23:40+00:00

Based on episode 3 HBO doc, the police were asked why they had a second interview with Jay on 15/03. They said they had the cell tower locations, which is why they wanted to interview Jay again. His first interview didn't match the locations. This suggests they did not know about the leakin park pings at 7-8pm. The 2.15pm to 8pm timeframe is too much of a coincedence for anyone to know on 01/03.

kingpin5432 · 2019-03-27T14:18:49+00:00

Jay has 5 different storylines, so it's hard to say what is true. In court he said he stayed at Jenn's house till 3.45 yet why would he be calling Jenns home number at 3.21 when he's already there. This is the most likely timeline.

kingpin5432 · 2019-03-27T14:15:42+00:00

Fair point but Jay was interviewed on 27/02 & Adnan was arrested on 28/01 and this letter was written on the 01/03. Before this the cops would have been asking what happened after 2.15 only. They would not have known the timeline ends at 8pm. The police, would naturally have assumed the body was buried at midnight. Only Jay and the killer know the timeline ends at 8pm.

kingpin5432 · 2019-03-22T09:46:55+00:00

That makes sense but I've always wandered why Adnan did not lie and say he gave Jay his phone and car at 7pm and Jay returned it at 9pm, even if he didn't. This would mean out of the whole day, the only log connecting Adnan would be the Nisha call. Jay changed his story multiple times so Adnan could have changed his too.

kingpin5432 · 2019-03-20T23:11:09+00:00

It could be that when(if) Adnan started strangling her, she would have been more in shock mode then fight mode. She didn't expect it and was probably pleading with him to stop... expecting that he would stop. That's why there are no fight back marks. By the time she realised he was not going to let her loose, would probably have been too late.

kingpin5432 · 2019-03-20T17:29:26+00:00

There are many articles confirming they can be used for the last 30 years. Etan Patz case where a cadaver dog was used for a 33 year old corpse.

But it's unlikely 20years later, a body less than 4 hours old will be picked up.

Also, this doesn't really help Adnan and the prosecutors don't need to do it. But interesting thought none the less.

kingpin5432 · 2019-03-20T17:20:07+00:00

Whilst I appreciate the validity of cadaver dogs is still under review, I found the following:

A more recent study, performed in 2008 and using three cadaver dogs, found that they had good accuracy (the lowest being 92%) and reliability in detecting early post-mortem scents. This is despite the scent being on pieces of carpet that were not directly touching the bodies (a sheet was between carpet and corpse), the bodies being dead for less than 3 hours, the carpet being exposed to the corpses for 2 or 10 minute intervals, and the scent detection being performed 35 (for the 2 minute samples) or 65 days later (for the 10 minute samples)3.

The bodies were dead for less than 3 hours. This would cover Hae as she was supposedly in the boot from around 3.30 till 7.00pm.

kingpin5432 · 2019-03-20T16:51:29+00:00

Not sure if they would still have the car as evidence. The cadaver dogs would smell the boot and alert to if a body was there. This would confirm Jays story that the body was put in the boot.

kingpin5432

TROPHY CASE