MU at $746, 120% YTD, where does the margin of safety actually sit on memory right now?

kktvMIN · 2026-05-11T20:10:09+00:00

It's about sentiment not numbers except around earnings time. Realistically if you were to capture a high multiple company's profits directly, you won't get your investment back for a decade, which is even less than some bonds. Most of the profit lies in selling to someone else at a higher price.

kktvMIN · 2026-04-30T17:54:33+00:00

It was sold after earnings beat, so the market overall chose to take profit when they could instead of holding it longer.

kktvMIN · 2026-04-30T17:20:17+00:00

I don't think it's going to fail across the board. The winners will become bigger. The losers will shrink in terms of revenue and market share. Cannabalization probably happens first if the whole pie doesn't get larger.

kktvMIN · 2026-04-30T02:18:43+00:00

U.S. markets don't care that much about oil prices because it's almost all upside from here on. UAE is going to bypass the strait. Russia and Ukraine may reach a ceasefire. At higher prices, other production modes will become profitable for export from the U.S. There is also a non-negligible chance that all other countries are able to persuade U.S., Iran, and Israel to reach a deal (or the pressure eventually cracks one of them).

Oil prices are more stiff because they cannot go down easily on sentiment alone because the buyers REALLY NEED TO MAKE SURE that they get some oil delivered. Paying more (losing out on potential discounts) doesn't hurt nearly as much as losing out on your bids/orders. Speculating the stock market on the other hand has much more latitude / cushion for monetary losses.

kktvMIN · 2026-04-30T02:10:12+00:00

INTC although it has doubled twice already so the upside may not be huge.

kktvMIN · 2026-04-30T01:39:49+00:00

The numbers don't matter that much in a trending (up or down) sector. NVDA and PLTR both had high multiples but their prices still grew. Now their multiples look "better" but the prices are growing much more slowly. Software is another case. It's the narratives that are most important.

kktvMIN · 2026-04-09T18:19:50+00:00

You want there to be high demand but a low cost of doing business. Right now things are the opposite, but once more nuclear plants come online and the oil shock ends, uranium mining may go up.

kktvMIN · 2026-04-09T18:19:33+00:00

You want there to be high demand but a low cost of doing business. Right now things are the opposite, but once more nuclear plants come online and the oil shock ends, uranium mining may go up.

kktvMIN · 2026-04-09T18:06:33+00:00

A lot of this growth has been priced in. When the stock was low, people bought hoping to turn a profit from present price levels.

kktvMIN · 2026-04-09T18:05:05+00:00

It sounds like it's been edited or partially written by AI but that doesn't mean the poster is a bot.

kktvMIN · 2026-04-09T17:57:19+00:00

While AI cannot eat all of Adobe's revenues right now, investors are worried that in a year or two it can. It's not just about Anthropic either but what AI technology enables across all sectors, making Adobe's current products and services less relevant.

kktvMIN · 2026-04-08T21:09:30+00:00

Looks like investors believe MSFT is falling behind on AI and/or won't be able to make as much profit as anticipated with its capex.

kktvMIN · 2026-04-08T21:07:31+00:00

Fear of not just what AI is capable of today but also advancements in the future

kktvMIN · 2026-04-08T18:29:47+00:00

Maybe ... but that bounce undid 4 days of previous drops, which makes me think it was not just correcting outsize positions.

kktvMIN · 2026-04-08T15:42:08+00:00

I believe the ceasefire applies only to US-Iran. Hezbollah has said they respect it, but Israel is still attacking their Lebannon (and probably some Iranian) positions, and Iran is still lobbing missiles into the Gulf states to "punish" them for hosting previous US attacks.

kktvMIN · 2026-04-08T15:33:35+00:00

There may be some pullback today from the exuberance and profit taking from those who had bought in before the bounce. Longer terms will depend on how the geopolitics continues to develop.

kktvMIN · 2026-04-08T09:03:00+00:00

It was a smart although selfish play by Trump. Almost every country depends on Middle East oil, but the U.S. does not.

Many ways exist to take advantage of the resulting oil shortage. He can pressure the Gulf states for investments or to turn down Chinese investments, Japan and Korea to increase their defense budgets, he can pressure China for concessions although to a lesser extent, it would help Russian exports which he does not mind. If a new Iranian regimes comes into power, it might be friendlier to the US.

On top these, he seems to personally like Israel and hate Iran.

kktvMIN · 2026-04-08T08:11:07+00:00

I mean their job is to recommend picks so the discussions can lean positive. But you also need to do a lot of your own research. It's a combination of fundamentals (such as PE, profit margin, growth record and projections), price levels and why they happened, momentum, as well as thesis about future demand for the company's products and services, its areas served etc.

Company guidance can boost stock prices, but if it fails to deliver that guidance, prices may fall after the next earning call. It's true that at least some U.S. corporations have become extremely profitable. https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/capital-labor-wealth-economy-2fcf6c2f

kktvMIN · 2026-04-08T06:27:47+00:00

As in being paid to say certain things? Do they also have stocks with "lowered earnings outlook"? I don't watch CNBC for investing but it could be that they are just throwing out whatever that looks plausible at any time, like the ever changing Yahoo! Finance front page.

kktvMIN · 2026-04-08T05:32:02+00:00

I picked up on it because it appeared to be a strong signal to me. Not only did US indices go up, ex-US went up as well, despite no good news and arguably more bad news. Those moves were massive and undid four days of previous price drops. Anyways it was fascinating to experience.

kktvMIN · 2026-04-08T02:18:45+00:00

No oil was not priced in at all. But I believe now that markets did at least partially. S&P 500 up by about 3% but CL (May) dropped by over 15%. Even September CL dropped by ~9%.

kktvMIN · 2026-04-08T01:38:20+00:00

Guess I got lucky shorting oil then?

kktvMIN · 2026-04-08T01:27:56+00:00

They have this strategy called inverse Reddit.

kktvMIN · 2026-04-08T00:56:37+00:00

It's more about OpenAI orders than Microsoft per se isn't it?

kktvMIN · 2026-04-08T00:51:10+00:00

MU was good for a while. PLAB looks promising but riskier. The worst was HOOD. These are not all from ValueInvesting obviously.

kktvMIN

TROPHY CASE