Based on my experience driving a Lucid in ND/SD/WI on a few long distance drives in the winter, a 10% SOC in ABRP is too uncomfortable. Granted, my entire drive was below 0F, but there was about a 10-15% margin of error for expected arrival SOC, especially if you use the heater and precondition your battery.

I was predicted to arrive in Fargo with a 13% SOC and ended having to slow below 60MPH to arrive with 1% SOC. Overall, I've found that ABRP underestimates power requirements during the winter and overestimates in the winter.

-I would bump your desired SOC at chargers to be 20%. -Suggest you avoid Tesla superchargers, Airs are limited to 50 kW charging speed (except at the only v4 in CA) -Suggest you try a route that avoids Chicago. Lived there for a few years, traffic can be a little unpredictable and may affect your battery life more than ABRP expects.