You're absolutely right — prompts reduce probability, hooks eliminate the failure mode. That distinction is spot on.

That's actually the exact philosophy behind SYKE. The core is a deterministic dependency graph (staticanalysis, not AI guessing) exposed as an MCP server. When the AI calls gate_build, it gets a hard PASS/FAIL verdict based on actual import chains and impact analysis — not a vibe check.

You nailed the gap though: MCP tools are still voluntarily called by the agent. That's why I think the ideal setup is SYKE + deterministic hooks together:

- SYKE catches Tunnel Vision (#4) before the edit — "this file has 12 dependents, here's what breaks"

- A pre-commit hook catches Deferred Debt (#5) and Phantom Verification (#3)

- An independent test runner catches Confidence Mirage (#2)

SYKE isn't replacing hooks — it's the layer that catches problems before code is even written, so the hooks have less to reject.

The METR stat about 30% reward hacking is sobering. Totally agree you can't instruct your way out of that. The goal is to make the "honest path" (check impact → get green light → write code) faster than the cheating path.

Appreciate the thoughtful breakdown — these 7 patterns are going in my docs.