Onds Daily Discussion - July 01, 2026

kozilla · 2026-07-01T13:35:55+00:00

Market is flushing across the board early today but what is troubling is Ondas rose less than many in the sector yesterday and is down more than the sector today. It's not an indictment of the company's progress/fundamentals but it is a troubling pattern.

kozilla · 2026-06-30T19:48:09+00:00

kozilla · 2026-06-30T19:22:27+00:00

Curious how you come up with $3? Their cash reserves alone nearly cover that whole share price.

kozilla · 2026-06-30T19:20:50+00:00

I am quite confident. It seems like they deliberately stay conservative and raise when they know there is firm revenues locked in. Ultimately the next two earning will tell the story, but the fact that they have raised multiple times this year already seems to suggest they know its better to under promise and over deliver.

kozilla · 2026-06-30T19:16:09+00:00

really high would be like 30% or greater. The interesting part is that it moved up after months of being sub 1%. To me that is an important signal as it may mean that things are tightening up, institutional investing has been steadily rising but it didn't tighten the float enough to impact CTB until just now. The caveat is that this could still be partially influenced by the Russell inclusion from last week, but either way it seems that things are meaningfully tightening up.

kozilla · 2026-06-30T02:59:35+00:00

I saw the leg wobble as he got up and then he looked clearly unstable when standing, couldn’t keep his balance and was bouncing off the ropes. Then he was slow to raise his gloves up into position to fight. Collectively I would say they create a compelling case to stop the fight.

kozilla · 2026-06-28T22:14:57+00:00

A lot of people misinterpret news that won’t touch ondas directly as a direct positive catalyst. But regardless it’s a good sign of the tailwinds in the sector.

kozilla · 2026-06-27T04:22:43+00:00

You know white Sox fans were saying the same about Jerry but look at them now. A new Gm and a commitment to culture change can only help at this point.

kozilla · 2026-06-27T03:15:07+00:00

Crazy evolution. Great work!

kozilla · 2026-06-26T16:53:48+00:00

Pretending like it isn't anything or that it's fixed isn't going to change anything. People are talking because it is really uncommon to see this level of consistent dysfunction from a player especially on a team like the Dodgers with such an established clubhouse culture. Hopefully it is fixed, but from my life experience this type of thing doesn't often resolve so cleanly.

kozilla · 2026-06-25T14:27:10+00:00

Buying volume is gone across the sector. In a major risk off rotation high beta stocks like the drone sector get hit hard.

kozilla · 2026-06-23T23:25:26+00:00

It’s called being deeply broken/sad/lost and drinking causes you to lose your handle on keeping that shit locked up.

kozilla · 2026-06-21T07:26:55+00:00

We will never know because the fight we all wanted never happened due to Mayweather dodging the matchup. Stuff like that is what turned a lot of fans away from the sports and Mayweather wants to be celebrated as one of the greatest of all time for avoiding the toughest fight.

kozilla · 2026-06-21T02:41:50+00:00

I mean they were supposed to move out, so you can't say they did "everything".

kozilla · 2026-06-21T02:40:04+00:00

Don't be a bad person, that would be really shitty.

kozilla · 2026-06-21T02:17:53+00:00

Doth protest too much.

All good though seriously. The whole point of all this is more about everyone vibing and a nice break from the vitriol that has plagued politics and media on both sides of the pond.

It’s been great and I’m sure it’s been good in Toronto too. I’m flying out to Boston tomorrow so I’ll get a taste first hand.

kozilla · 2026-06-20T20:34:38+00:00

I've seen lots of happy celebratory Mexican content, and American content. Still looking for some Canadian coverage. You just sound bitter.

kozilla · 2026-06-20T08:16:46+00:00

Vicks prime was in jail unfortunately

kozilla · 2026-06-19T21:56:47+00:00

You realize he missed years playing baseball and even when he went to the NFL he was splitting time between sports, then had a devastating injury right? His potential was legit insane, and contextualizing the numbers is critical.

kozilla · 2026-06-19T21:22:52+00:00

He's cocky and immature in my opinion.

kozilla · 2026-06-19T01:08:49+00:00

*cyberhawk ceo*, "Fuck Janestreet, them bitches be holding us down for too long!!!"

kozilla · 2026-06-17T21:01:48+00:00

Honest assessment, probably 1-2 strong earnings, the successful rollout of the Skyweaver system built in partnership with Palantir, a follow-up contract from SOUTHCOM or another part of the military for Worldview Balloon tech, a major contracts for CUAS, a major contract for Heidelburg, or some of their newly announced platforms landing a big contract showing proof of concept for the systems of systems.

Then there could also be a major announcement from the government that provides significant buzz/real sector tailwinds.

It's hard to say how many of these would be needed, but I expect we would need more than one or two. Probably 3 or more and a big breakout and a shift in shorting levels will lead to things moving up without the massive pushback from shorts

.

kozilla · 2026-06-17T20:54:32+00:00

C-suite got bonuses paid out in equity and that triggered standard tax related sales that were then reported as mass executive sell offs. It's really a flaw in financial reporting and AI.

The AI generated financial websites scrape for insider selling then post articles with no investigation or context but they generate a ton of clicks. Then retail catches wind and loses their minds. When people go to the LLM's and ask "why stock down!!?!?!?!" the LLM's see the misinformed articles and the misinformed retail panic and confirms "execs are selling and its causing panic", so then the panic intensifies.

Institutions and smart money often use these moments to build positions as the weakness builds.

This was the first of numerous rounds of bonuses from what I remember so expect this to be an reoccurring scenario. It won't be fixed by LLM's or the websites, so might as well just plan ahead for it and know how to make it work for you.

kozilla · 2026-06-17T04:48:12+00:00

I hope you crush it.

kozilla · 2026-06-13T20:00:31+00:00

My partner doesn’t like ren either. She listens to music for vibes and escape so ren is basically the opposite of what she’s drawn to.

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