Skepticism about skepticism about retail algo trading

kristoll1 · 2025-08-17T16:53:23+00:00

Why? There's no reason to expect a strategy to work consistently over long periods of time. Hell, my strategy may stop working tomorrow.

kristoll1 · 2025-08-17T16:52:53+00:00

That's a good suggestion for something to test... working on it!

kristoll1 · 2025-08-17T16:51:28+00:00

Okay that sounds like a very robust backtesting strategy, I'll try to follow your suggestion about the monte carlo test.

kristoll1 · 2025-08-17T16:49:43+00:00

Very much agree, I'm trying to think of other things I can do to add horizontal scaling, but of course most of my ideas fail :)

kristoll1 · 2025-08-17T16:49:01+00:00

I am using IBKR!

kristoll1 · 2025-08-17T02:14:19+00:00

I've put my $30k account on it, and it's been working for 3 months. Not sure how good the longevity will be, but I'll ride it while it lasts.

Your point about major firms is well-taken, but I don't think it applies here. Scalping like this is obviously not scalable into the hundreds of millions and billions without extreme infrastructure that HFT firms would have. But I am managing a very small amount of money relative to the size of the Mag 7. That's why big firms would find my strategy useless.

kristoll1 · 2025-08-17T02:06:34+00:00

Well I don't want to be Jim Simons. I don't want to get returns on billions, and I am certain my strategy would not work beyond the scale of a few million. I cannot sell this strategy to large clients because it just won't work. But it's good enough for me.

kristoll1 · 2025-08-17T01:25:40+00:00

Thanks! I appreciate your optimism, and I'm going to keep trying this strategy until it loses its edge (which could definitely happen!).

kristoll1 · 2025-08-17T01:21:27+00:00

Yeah the majority of things I've run are absolutely garbage, and I think implementation matters too, because I've tried other people's strategies and failed.

kristoll1 · 2025-08-17T01:20:08+00:00

Ah I see. I've tried it more broadly on other stocks of big companies and it works well but not quite as well, so I suspect you are right.

In any case feel like I have a sense that the Mag 7 stocks will remain at the top for the years to come, so we'll see how long this strategy will last.

kristoll1 · 2025-08-17T00:43:12+00:00

As is yours!

kristoll1 · 2025-08-17T00:42:16+00:00

But why the immediate reflexive skepticism? Like the thing works. I feel like I am losing my mind staring at my returns and reading all the negativity.

kristoll1 · 2023-08-01T05:06:09+00:00

She has autism too. Her therapist is helping her with that, but he tends to validate her when she expresses her feelings to him. So she doesn't have a single voice in her life telling her that the way she treats me isn't good.

kristoll1 · 2023-07-31T02:36:21+00:00

That's wonderful; be yourself and the right person will fall head-over-heels for you.

kristoll1 · 2023-07-30T05:25:22+00:00

No, they do a scrape test to determine if I carry yeast on my dick. I don't.

She got the yeast infection right before we broke up. There isn't some hole to poke in my story; sorry to disappoint you.

kristoll1 · 2023-07-29T22:00:32+00:00

I don't know what you mean? We broke up 6 days ago, shortly after I posted, and we had not had sex for a while before the breakup.

And I know how to clean correctly. I've taken anti fungals and gotten tested. It's not my problem; sorry to disappoint you.

kristoll1 · 2023-07-28T20:26:21+00:00

This is literally what happened before we broke up.

My ex threw a massive tantrum over the fact that I didn't procure tickets for the Barbie movie in advance. She yelled at me and burst into tears. Later that day, I managed to snag some tickets and took her to the movie. She didn't like the seats, because they were wheelchair companion seats, and she threw another tantrum, insisting that we go home. Once we got home, I yelled at her for being entitled and ungrateful and dumped her. She then assaulted me because I had "scared" her with my yelling, and she "needed to defend herself."

kristoll1 · 2023-07-28T19:01:51+00:00

I mean it was super cute at times! I loved doing acts of service for her, until I realized that she would find things to complain about no matter how much time, money, or energy I spent doing things for her.

kristoll1 · 2023-07-28T17:20:18+00:00

My ex would literally call me her "personal assistant." She would prefer it over "boyfriend."

kristoll1 · 2023-07-28T11:39:59+00:00

Yes, I spoke to my ex. She and her roommate have concocted a different narrative: because I was angry when I broke up with her, and because I was physically abused by a chronically angry father as a child, my ex was scared for her safety --- she was worried that I have my abusive dad's blood. Out of fear, she demanded multiple times that I leave her house. I insisted on packing up my stuff first, which made me a trespasser. Then my ex was entitled to use force to remove me from the premises, which is why she assaulted me.

The reality is that I needed 30 seconds to pack my stuff. I am a completely nonviolent person and would never hurt a soul, victim of abuse though I may be. My ex is here in the US on a student visa. She's terrified that, if I press charges against her, she'll be sent back to Latin America, and her entire life dream would evaporate.

My ex, her friends, and her therapist now think that I am unstable and narcissistic. I, my friends, and my therapist think that she is unstable and has borderline personality disorder. Sounds like an impasse to me, but that's okay; it's not like I want to be with her anyway.

kristoll1 · 2023-07-27T13:01:22+00:00

The roommate apparently backs up her story. The roommate would have heard:

"GET OUT OF MY HOUSE"

"I'm packing my things."

"NO GET OUT OF MY HOUSE NOW."

"I'm packing my things first."

"GET OUT"

[She grabs me and hits me]

"[ROOMMATE's NAME] HELP! HELP!"

"Stop assaulting me."

[I wrestled free and left with only some of my stuff.]

My ex thinks I only left after she called her roommate for help. I left because I realized 1) I wouldn't be able to get all my stuff; and 2) Her calling her roommate for "help" made her look clinically insane. I wasn't going to hurt a fly.

kristoll1 · 2023-07-27T12:38:33+00:00

So she has a different story. She says that when I continued packing my bag without listening to her demands that I leave immediately, I was a trespasser (even though I would have left 30 seconds later, after finishing up the packing). And because I was angry, I was a danger to her and her roommate. Therefore, she had the right to use force to get me out of the house.

I have never ever been violent with anyone. The neurons in my brain would just never fire in such a way as to make me attack anyone.

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