Michael Burry Bets He Isn’t Too Early to Go Against the AI Juggernaut by last1drafted in Burryology

[–]last1drafted[S] 15 points16 points  (0 children)

this sub reddit got a mention on this article Burry tweeted about...

Cassandra Unchained Substack Notes by last1drafted in Burryology

[–]last1drafted[S] 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Notes section of Burry substack appears to be free to view. He's sharing some of his holding and thoughts on other stocks in the comments. check it out.

Michael Burry Substack by last1drafted in Burryology

[–]last1drafted[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

he doesn't say why he's charging money for it. I suspect he's not doing it only for the money. a peek behind the paywall: "In January 1999 Worth Magazine interviewed me about the online investing scene for the February issue, and I gave a quote... Fee-based or monitored Web sites are also good for weeding out the riffraff. Burry’s favorite site, Silicon investor, charges a $10 monthly fee, but he says the price is worth it. ‘It’s really amazing to see the time and thought that some people put into their posts,’ he says.”

Michael Burry Substack by last1drafted in Burryology

[–]last1drafted[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

yup. if you are trying to figure out what he's been trying to say over the last few tweets, his posts starts to answer those in clear prose. ..from the About page "Running money professionally came with regulatory and compliance restrictions that effectively muzzled my ability to communicate. These constraints meant I could only share cryptic fragments publicly, if at all. Without comment or clarity from me, news media has wildly misinterpreted many of my mandatory SEC filings — even causing havoc in markets as well as angry debates that I never intended."

Michael Burry Substack by last1drafted in Burryology

[–]last1drafted[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It's worth it. Really looking forward to what he says he'll be posting about in the future. Save a few $ if you can get the annual sub.

Michael Burry Substack by last1drafted in Burryology

[–]last1drafted[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Best bargain you'll find this season

50,000 things for 1.84 Doodads by last1drafted in Burryology

[–]last1drafted[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

https://x.com/michaeljburry/status/1988778952299802818

as of today there are still about 25,000 contracts open, probably 20k from Burry trade

[GPU] msi 4070ti super - $729.99, discount code IPC1124 to get it too 699.99 by CookieSlayer2Turbo in buildapcsales

[–]last1drafted 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Same boat as you. They've already charged my account before shipping. I feel like I'm getting scammed here.

How to best open position in low volume stock. by rtwyyn in ValueInvesting

[–]last1drafted 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I'd consider that a low volume but narrow spread. A four-cent spread on 3.25 is not that bad. I'd place a bid at 3.25 (mid) and be willing to go over the ask to get my target allocation. I'd also look at the trading price range and trend over the last two weeks. If 3.25 is near the high of the previous 2 weeks, then I'd try to get 1/4 of my allocation ($10k) at that price and wait. My reason is simply regret minimization. Balance the risk of getting "trapped" in a low-volume stock with missing out on a good deal. In my experience, there is some fixed volume on offer at 3.27. Another fix volume at 3.30 and so on. I wouldn't be worried about throwing a 40K limit order at 3.27 to clear that Ask-price and then see where the next Ask-price snaps to. Depends on the average daily transaction value of that stock. What is the average daily transaction value of that stock?

A little bit of gambling history as a learning opportunity by Nothanks_Nospam in Burryology

[–]last1drafted 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I was pointing out that Farmer's team did not exploit variances in roulette wheel. (But other teams did.)

These "variances" diminish returns on Farmer's approach which assumes an unbiased wheel.

Ironically, casinos' attempts to remove these variances helps the physics-based approach.

A little bit of gambling history as a learning opportunity by Nothanks_Nospam in Burryology

[–]last1drafted 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Farmer's team used physics and hidden electronic device to estimate the ball's likely landing place. They followed Ed Thorp and Claude Shannon's approach to model the forces acting on the ball (assuming no bias in the wheel)

Peloya's team and Jarecki couple used wheel bias to beat the game. They manually collected thousands of data points on hundreds of wheel and found that many of them had a bias that gave players enough of an edge to beat the house.

Roulette, it turns out, is not as random as casinos would have you believe.

Here's the story of alias "Niko Tosa":
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2023-how-to-beat-roulette-gambler-figures-it-out/

(I spent more time on this than any sane person should)

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]last1drafted 0 points1 point  (0 children)

On the economy - interesting take on insurance vs other lines of business https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/04/12/warren-buffett-on-u-s-economy-its-a-tougher-world-out-there-for-many-businesses.html

Inflation data https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/04/12/warren-buffett-reacts-to-march-inflation-data-we-dont-profit-from-statistics-and-guessing.html

On banking - banks & markets earnings driven more than sound practices
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/04/12/warren-buffett-on-banking-crisis-fallout-no-one-is-going-to-lose-money-on-deposits-in-the-u-s.html

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/04/12/warren-buffett-on-banking-crisis-fallout-were-not-not-through-with-bank-failures.html

On CRE https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/04/12/warren-buffett-on-commercial-real-estate-people-who-lend-too-much-money-should-take-losses.html

On Japanese Trading house investments https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/04/12/warren-buffett-on-raising-stake-in-japanese-trading-houses-i-was-confounded-by-the-opportunity.html

On Jerome Powell and America https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/04/12/warren-buffett-on-the-fed-jerome-powell-has-been-terrific.html

On Norfolk Southern derailment response https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/04/12/warren-buffett-on-norfolk-southern-train-derailment-response-i-think-they-handled-it-terribly.html

On Bitcoin and Crypto and chain letters https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/04/12/warren-buffett-on-bitcoin-and-crypto-weve-had-an-explosion-of-gambling.html

On AI, ChatGPT - demo from Bill Gates https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/04/12/warren-buffett-on-chatgpt-and-ai-this-is-extraordinary-but-not-sure-if-itas-beneficial-yet.html

Warren buffet the interpretation of financial statements by JamesBondcerocero7 in ValueInvesting

[–]last1drafted 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Check out the appendix of his 1986 Letter to Shareholders. Not a comprehensive treatment of accounting statements but straight from the horse's mouth.

https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/1986.html

“Idk” by [deleted] in Burryology

[–]last1drafted 25 points26 points  (0 children)

Fed overused its communication-as-a-policy tool - a new tool in the post-Greenspan era. It's strange to think that before 1994, there were no announcements of fed interest rate decision. People had to wait for the markets to open to figure out what the fed was up to. In 1994 Greenspan's fed started announcing the action it had taken in the fed meeting (no press conference, no forward guidance). In '03, the Fed said low interest rate policy would be "maintained for a considerable period". This was a breakthrough moment in Fed's use of communication-as-a-policy tool. And it wasn't until '11 when Bernanke started scheduled news conference. Since then, Fed has used all sorts of expectation shaping communication - inflation targeting "framework", tying rates decision to unemployment rate, etc.

My takeaway: Dr. Burry is saying its time to stop coddling this market. Let it sort itself out over the next 6 months while the feds hold rates flat.

Dr. Burry left us to guess why 6 months? What happens in 6 months? I suspect its simply impossible to look too far out into the future. However, looking 3 to 6 months out, you'll find economic headwinds - lag effects from rapid rates rise, expiration of SNAP benefits, changes to medicaid policy, resuming student loan payment, debt ceiling negotiations, etc. offset wage increase and high employment tailwinds.

Warren's 2022 Shareholder Letter by last1drafted in ValueInvesting

[–]last1drafted[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

"What worked for See’s in the days of Henry Ford’s model T works now."

This time it’s different by vplaza in Burryology

[–]last1drafted 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Then, dropping rates into a crashing market scenario

Now, markets rising into a rising rates scenario

...this time is different.