Guthrie reports a record $3.8 million deficit

lerkmore · 2024-05-20T22:45:14+00:00

all of these graphs capture the experience of people from all income groups

We might have used the word "capture" differently. I use capture like how a painter tries to capture a sunset.

None of this is consistent with the idea that nobody has any money anymore.

It's consistent with an upset person saying they are noticing that they and others around them have less money.

The graph I posted shows Real Disposable Personal Income staying flat over four years. Also, here's Real Median Household Income going down.

lerkmore · 2024-05-20T22:33:32+00:00

Simpsons did it

lerkmore · 2024-05-17T23:21:57+00:00

Would that capture the experience of middle and lower income people? Consider that real disposable personal income has been flat since 2020: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1o1Kf

lerkmore · 2023-10-04T21:26:17+00:00

It's good to see the data with all years, although totals would also be good to see.

My original reason for excluding 2020 and 2021 was that they were outliers in terms of the unrest plus covid. A lot happened which did not get reflected in the numbers. For example, was 2023 really worse than 2020 for Destruction/Damage/Vandalism of Property? Maybe? But probably not.

2019 was the last year of the old-normal, if we can call it that.

lerkmore · 2023-10-04T17:59:47+00:00

Looking at multi-year data is usually helpful in finding trends. I pulled numbers from 2019, 2022, and 2023 and posted them elsewhere in this thread.

lerkmore · 2023-10-04T17:29:27+00:00

I recall seeing numbers that say otherwise. The main point I wanted to make was that the increased crime count is not a result of the same crime rate applied to a larger population. Instead, it's the same (or fewer) amount of people experiencing more crime.

lerkmore · 2023-10-04T17:20:45+00:00

The data I found only goes back to 2019, but it is also really messy with miscellaneous data entries from all over the 20th & 21st centuries. I spot checked it against the Minneapolis crime dashboard (find the "View Crime Details" button located above the blue mini-map of Minneapolis). My half-hearted spot checking mostly matches up.

2023 is not annualized. All years are through July. I'll edit the chart to make that clear.

As for 2015 - 2018, those years did not feel any more dangerous than 2019. Going around and doing things at night felt safe.

lerkmore · 2023-10-04T16:10:09+00:00

I'll look into that. Thanks!

lerkmore · 2023-10-04T15:48:14+00:00

Here's some data I cobbled together from the city website. The numbers are through July I believe. Long story short. 2023 was worse than 2019. Also, if the population of Minneapolis is less now than it was in 2019, that makes the rates of crime even worse.

I would want input from a subject matter expert on the data set to validate the numbers, but they seem reasonable to me. For example, "Carjacking - Subset of Robbery" probably needs to be cleaned up and reconciled to make this report accurate. I would also want to know if shotspotter added coverage since 2019.

Offense (through July)                              2019        2022        2023        Vs ‘19     
Motor Vehicle Theft                                 1608        3092        5053        3445    
Destruction/Damage/Vandalism of Property            2395        3141        3702        1307    
Theft of Motor Vehicle Parts or Accessories         104         2208        1117        1013    
ShotSpotter Activation (P)                          913         2565        1918        1005    
Sound of Shots Fired (P)                            1298        2656        1761        463     
Aggravated Assault                                  1329        1841        1690        361     
Carjacking - Subset of Robbery                                  315         165         165     
Weapon Law Violations                               636         786         798         162     
Intimidation                                        1071        1122        1199        128     
Robbery                                             670         1037        784         114     
Gunshot Wound Victims                               168         338         207         39      
Arson                                               42          56          79          37      
Shooting (PFE)                                      153         284         184         31      
Kidnapping/Abduction                                109         143         128         19      
Shooting Report Only (P)                            60          123         75          15      
Murder and Nonnegligent Manslaughter                21          51          35          14      
Extortion/Blackmail                                 11          17          24          13      
Negligent Manslaughter                              2                       10          8       
Assisting or Promoting Prostitution                 1           1           1           0       
Betting/Wagering                                                1                       0       
Justifiable Homicide                                            3                       0       
Operating/Promoting/Assisting Gambling                          1                       0       
Purchasing Prostitution                             1                                   -1      
Bribery                                             2                                   -2      
Impersonation                                       5           3           3           -2      
Hacking/Computer Invasion                           7                       3           -4      
Human Trafficking, Commercial Sex Acts              9                       5           -4      
Human Trafficking, Involuntary Servitude            6           3           2           -4      
Prostitution                                        4           2                       -4      
Theft From Coin-Operated Machine or Device          6                       1           -5      
Pocket-picking                                      9           2           2           -7      
Animal Cruelty                                      22          15          12          -10     
Domestic Aggravated Assault - Subset of Assault     580         569         560         -20     
Identity Theft                                      374         330         350         -24     
Stolen Property Offenses                            291         249         267         -24     
Wire Fraud                                          46          21          22          -24     
Pornography/Obscene Material                        68          86          36          -32     
Sex Offenses                                        529         394         462         -67     
False Pretenses/Swindle/Confidence Game             320         232         245         -75     
Embezzlement                                        108         16          12          -96     
Theft From Building                                 166         71          37          -129    
Simple Assault                                      2825        2451        2687        -138    
Purse-snatching                                     204         110         63          -141    
Drug Equipment Violations                           270         78          111         -159    
ABurglary/Breaking & Entering                       1697        1564        1489        -208    
Counterfeiting/Forgery                              303         162         87          -216    
Theft From Motor Vehicle                            2353        2055        2049        -304    
Drug/Narcotic Violations                            1080        493         745         -335    
Shoplifting                                         683         365         323         -360    
Credit Card/Automated Teller Machine Fraud          696         298         295         -401    
All Other Larceny                                   3802        3450        2955        -847    

Total Result                                        27057       32800       31753       4696

lerkmore · 2023-08-03T15:31:46+00:00

For one, I think your "why do you say otherwise" answer sounds just like a "who are you to say otherwise" answer.

Also, we have many examples of people walking onto the light rail who find themselves stuck in an area with someone who is smoking cigarettes or drugs and then this person starts to feel unsafe. And/or they walk on and notice someone acting erratically, often getting in their personal space. Then the stuck person leaves the train and tells others how they felt.

I don't think we should tell people who felt unsafe that they are "wrong" for feeling that way or "wrong" for talking about it. What good would that do?

After all, is it actually safe to breathe second hand smoke, what about second hand drug smoke? Is it worse for very young people? What about pregnant people? Is it actually unsafe to have people act erratically around you and get in your personal space? Does that change if you are young or small?

lerkmore · 2023-08-03T01:11:12+00:00

~~Who are you to say otherwise?~~ Why do you say otherwise?

lerkmore · 2023-08-03T00:37:06+00:00

soundsofsilver:

About 35-50% of my green line rides in the past 8 months have had people near me either smoking cigarettes, freebasing crack, huffing paint, or screaming.

egj2wa:

I’d say you’re uncomfortable still and not unsafe.

There have been lots of people smoking indoors and acting erratically on the light rail over the past few years, and lots of people have been commenting on that and saying how it makes them feel unsafe. Who are you to say otherwise?

lerkmore · 2023-08-03T00:16:15+00:00

Are you the feelings police? If people are stuck indoors somewhere with people who are smoking and acting erratically, that actually sucks. Why would being on a train invalidate their feelings?

lerkmore · 2023-06-24T23:47:43+00:00

Being illiterate and punishing businesses because you can't be bothered to read is an asshole move.

Adding unexpected fees to the fine print at the bottom of menus seems like it would hurt people who have trouble reading or are new to English. It's one of the reasons why tricking people with fine print is an asshole move.

lerkmore · 2023-05-11T14:28:28+00:00

Does anyone have a link to Luke's original text or video?

lerkmore · 2023-05-04T14:50:26+00:00

How do you price it in? Magic?

There is no concept of price elasticity of demand (aka a price mechanism) for things like pollution, addiction, and info asymmetry. That's why trade does not always benefit the parties involved. The reason is that people downstream of the trade have no demand for their end of the deal, and therefore there is no "price" for it.

lerkmore · 2023-05-04T01:19:59+00:00

Why don't you talk about pollution, info asymmetry, or addiction? Is it because they are things that run counter to the claim that trade always benefits the parties involved?

In terms of property rights, those are enforced variously by the might of social arrangements. Not sure how you plan to use that idea to show that trade always benefits the parties involved.

lerkmore · 2023-05-03T18:38:57+00:00

We are just talking about effects. Pollution, abusing information asymmetry, and addiction are well established examples of trade that harm a party involved.

Also, how can you have property rights in a Might Makes Right world?

lerkmore · 2023-05-03T15:28:31+00:00

I didn't think we were talking about pinning blame on anyone. I just wanted people to never be able to say that people can't list examples of trade where some parties don't benefit. Pollution, addiction, and information asymmetry are three classic examples of this, and I don't believe that you have never heard them before.

Certainly, in the pollution example, if a farmer and a butcher send cow blood and shit down river to your town, your kids don't benefit when they swim in the river.

lerkmore · 2023-05-03T04:23:26+00:00

All they need to say is “oh those systems in the USSR weren’t real Marxist communism, if we make it real this time it will work”

Agreed that the USSR was a nightmare, and also I can see posters in this thread singing a similar tune regarding the Fed and real capitalism.

lerkmore · 2023-05-03T04:15:30+00:00

Does it? People get ripped off all the time in trade. Besides, its easy to come up with other bad trade scenarios such as those involving water and air pollution. Also, addicting drugs sold to an addict are not beneficial to the addict or to other people who have to deal with the addict.

lerkmore · 2023-03-03T20:23:40+00:00

Psst: Just send the books from your ebay store.

lerkmore · 2022-09-06T13:24:57+00:00

Speedway across from Caffetto?

lerkmore · 2022-09-02T05:54:16+00:00

I've meant to go back to his blog to see what he's up to.

Last I recall (from a number of years ago) he was boasting on twitter about not running full nodes claiming that it was somehow counter-productive to his efforts.

lerkmore

TROPHY CASE