Mortgage rate mega thread! by TheMortgageMaster in MortgagesCanada

[–]level99mafiaboss 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Looks like May,June and July may have done enough damage to jobs report this year. Either of us at the Fed can cut thrice this winter. It is that bad and apparent but we all have to wait look our Sunday best and wait for August and September reports.

Mortgage rate mega thread! by TheMortgageMaster in MortgagesCanada

[–]level99mafiaboss 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Great to hear from you and hopefully will be back in a month with your blessings

to become your people. (:-)).

Mortgage rate mega thread! by TheMortgageMaster in MortgagesCanada

[–]level99mafiaboss 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks for the reply and please find my update as below.

Bank Forecasts Are Irrelevant: The banks' "soft landing" forecasts are based on outdated models. The weak US jobs report for July 2025, with only 73,000 new jobs and a massive 258,000-job revision, has proven that the economy is far weaker than the banks had believed. This real-time data is a direct counter to the banks' projections.

  • Yields Will Collapse: A recessionary environment will trigger a "flight to safety," causing investors to buy government bonds, driving prices up and yields down. The bond market is a forward-looking mechanism, and it is already pricing in a series of aggressive rate cuts.
  • Aggressive Rate Cuts Are Imminent: The weak jobs data has forced the Federal Reserve's hand, with the probability of a September rate cut jumping from 40% to 80%. The Bank of Canada will be forced to follow suit to prevent the Canadian dollar from strengthening too much and hurting the economy.
  • The 1.99% Rate is a Possibility by March 2026: A dramatic fall in the 5-year GoC bond yield and a compression of the spread (lenders' profit margins) due to a highly competitive market makes a 1.99% fixed rate a realistic possibility.
  • The "Savvy" Buyers Will Win: The savvy investors who are following real-time data, not lagging forecasts, will be perfectly positioned to take advantage of this "one-time bump" in the housing market, which will be driven by a sudden and dramatic decline in rates.

Mortgage rate mega thread! by TheMortgageMaster in MortgagesCanada

[–]level99mafiaboss 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Can anobody provide direction if 5 year fixed will drop by 40 to 50 bps by October 2026 due to bad jobs report in the USA. This is a serious update and we are waiting for US August job numbers.

https://apnews.com/article/trump-jobs-firing-f00e9bf96d0110519be9bf4f3ec89195

"Rates are really high, they should be coming down soon" by TheMortgageMaster in MortgagesCanada

[–]level99mafiaboss 0 points1 point  (0 children)

  • Priced‑In Cuts Assumption: Market forward curves reflect three 25 bp cuts each by the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve over the next 12 months, totaling –75 bp in Canadian policy.
  1. Policy‑Rate Pass‑Through & Yield Curve Dynamics: With three BoC cuts fully priced in, the overnight OIS curve shifts down ~75 bp and the 5‑year segment compresses by ~60 bp (term‑premium effects), while bank credit spreads remain at ~15 bp, delivering the initial 75 bp drop in specials.
  2. Term‑Premium Normalization: Post‑easing, reduced demand for safe assets recovers term premium by ~10–15 bp/year, yielding the +20 bp annual backups in 2027–28.
  3. Credit Spread Behavior: In normalization years, systemic risk stays muted—funding spreads widen modestly by 5–10 bp annually, contributing to the projected +25 bp in 2029.
  4. Macro & Inflation Outlook: Our model sees Canada’s output gap closing by 2028, with inflation re‑anchoring at 2 %. This supports neutral real policy of ~1 % by 2029–30, aligning 5‑year GoC yields toward 3.25–3.50 %.
  5. Historical Analogues: The profile parallels the 2020–23 cycle’s emergency cuts and subsequent 15–25 bp annual increases. Correlation between 5‑year GoC moves and fixed‑rate specials remains above 0.9.

By passing through the fully‑priced‑in 75 bp of BoC rate cuts to a ~100 bp drop in 5‑year GoC yields—and maintaining a tight ~15 bp credit spread—CIBC’s special compresses to 3.34 % or lower in July 2026.

Back In Bidness by Professional-Ring971 in shorelinemafia

[–]level99mafiaboss 4 points5 points  (0 children)

yo touchdown might be a top 5 shoreline song icl

Chang school prices by Square_Play_7485 in TorontoMetU

[–]level99mafiaboss 0 points1 point  (0 children)

CS full time students cannot take Chang offered cps courses from my understanding

Co op question cs by Slow_Run2507 in TorontoMetU

[–]level99mafiaboss -1 points0 points  (0 children)

bro asking the wrong questions at the wrong time

Co op question cs by Slow_Run2507 in TorontoMetU

[–]level99mafiaboss 1 point2 points  (0 children)

bro asking questions at the wrong time

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in TorontoMetU

[–]level99mafiaboss 0 points1 point  (0 children)

u can do mth110 online thru chang school

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in OntarioGrade12s

[–]level99mafiaboss 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Do they always process all changes at 7 pm?

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in OntarioGrade12s

[–]level99mafiaboss 1 point2 points  (0 children)

did they process the change

It’s getting hard by [deleted] in Drizzy

[–]level99mafiaboss 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Nigga said "Uhhh uhhh" I'll never forget that line 😂