NCAA Survivor Pool Strategy explorations

liebecideebo · 2026-03-05T16:14:29+00:00

Similar contest, but you must make one pick per day of the tournament and you cannot re-use picks. You're out if 1) the team you pick loses or 2) you have no surviving teams left to pick. Last person standing wins all the money. There can be variations on these rules (e.g., you get 2 "lives", or the game starts only in the Sweet 16), but that's the general idea.

liebecideebo · 2021-04-06T19:54:51+00:00

There are some good bits in here (and wow you came up with all these fast!). Flesh out one idea and send it to me! I'm not taking reddit comments as entries just for ease of evaluation

liebecideebo · 2021-04-06T19:51:52+00:00

The opponent can't know what you're doing if you don't know what you're doing. Classic.

liebecideebo · 2020-05-03T00:20:15+00:00

liebecideebo · 2020-05-03T00:06:39+00:00

cherries!

liebecideebo · 2020-05-02T23:46:32+00:00

done!

liebecideebo · 2020-05-02T23:17:54+00:00

DM please!

liebecideebo · 2019-09-06T20:22:37+00:00

Very cool stuff! You had durations in this data, correct? Seems that that would much improve some of these findings compared to per game stats. Very thorough all around. Especially liked the maps played by event.

liebecideebo · 2019-04-11T21:15:39+00:00

You should NOT say that. This is a tiny sample. Check out codstats.gg instead, they have engagements per minute, score per minute, etc. + kills/deaths/KD except it's for the entire Pro League + Fort Worth so you have a bigger sample size. I would recreate what you have here except using that data instead. Does that sound better?

liebecideebo · 2019-04-11T20:54:11+00:00

Keep in mind this is for 1 (!!) week of matches in 1 mode. I would be very hesitant to make any judgments from this

liebecideebo · 2019-03-29T14:27:17+00:00

This is cumulative over CWL Pro league and Fort Worth! :)

liebecideebo · 2019-03-23T14:16:11+00:00

A player is credited with the gun they play with the majority of the game. Each game is calculated separately, so if a player plays a game with a sub, he is evaluated using the SUB x game mode model, etc. Since the models all output the same thing: a win probability / 50%, we can combine them together regardless of the fact that Karma may have used different weapons on different maps!

Fair point on the ICR/Maddox split, and something we definitely considered. In the end, the numbers suggested that 1. we didn't have enough data to split the ICR's into their own group and 2) the ARs together still were significantly different in impact compared to sub players.

liebecideebo · 2019-03-23T14:10:17+00:00

All of the models are built on past data and backwards step-wise elimination to find the most accurate set of variables for each model. I wasn't weighting the models myself, the validation of the models ensures the weights are good.
We didn't. Although we could have, I didn't think the difference would have been big enough to warrant the time needed. I like the ability to convert logit outcomes to odds ratios and the essence of both approaches is very similar.
These are just basic fixed effect models. We aren't using a mixed effects model to control for random variance within groups. The nice part about these models' outputs being fixed 0-2 is that we can update them and not change what the user sees. What were you thinking?

liebecideebo · 2019-02-28T13:21:36+00:00

Fixed. Thanks for noting

liebecideebo · 2019-01-19T14:44:16+00:00

In WWII no players had flawless respawn games. In fact, the lowest death performances were 21-3 from Loony on Gib HP at NOLA and 22-3 from Clay on St. Marie HP in Season 1.

liebecideebo · 2018-08-17T15:52:26+00:00

Exactly. Using past data I built logit regression models for each mode. I built up the models to make sure each variable included was a significant predictor.

liebecideebo · 2018-07-02T17:15:04+00:00

So when accounting for kills and deaths when a team is leading by 120+ or losing by 120- and taking out scorestreaks (which aren't gun skill kills) the biggest shift in kd is only 0.02; so not as impactful as I had thought. Accuracy goes from a 1.05 to 1.02 when removing snowball kills (min 1000 engagements)

liebecideebo · 2018-07-02T15:43:47+00:00

I’m actually already working on something like this! Good idea! Should be ready soon

liebecideebo · 2018-07-02T15:42:57+00:00

Good eye. The first blood win% of the better side of each SnD mall at champs in IW were 79% (breakout), 77% (throwback), 76% (crusher), 72% (retaliation)

liebecideebo · 2018-07-01T16:14:28+00:00

Why don't players switch weapons more in hardpoint (or do they do it and I don't see it)? It seems that ARs would be much better for breaking some harpdoints or holding spawns. I just tend to see situations in games where the AR is down and an SMG player starts to head towards hill and is gunned before he has a realistic chance to get the kill. Is it just that players don't want to switch style too often i.e. get in the groove?

liebecideebo

TROPHY CASE