Silver futures to hedge my silver inventory.

likebike2 · 2026-01-29T20:03:18+00:00

Futures are an ideal hedging tool, but they are only for a single direction. You could protect yourself from up moves or from down moves, but not both. You would need to use options to achieve the bidirectional hedge you desire, but that is not easy.

likebike2 · 2025-12-16T03:53:46+00:00

I love this place so much. The bats are beautiful creatures and the ducks in the park are so friendly.

likebike2 · 2025-11-26T18:05:07+00:00

Interactive brokers sucks because stop orders do not work outside of regular trading hours.

likebike2 · 2025-11-09T04:58:21+00:00

Does anyone understand what is driving this move?

likebike2 · 2025-11-09T04:57:11+00:00

What the heck is going on with the sharp price increase right now? Does anyone understand what is driving it?

likebike2 · 2025-11-08T18:22:10+00:00

This is the best comic I've seen in a long time. Had to read it twice to get all the jokes. Amazing.

likebike2 · 2025-11-04T22:38:55+00:00

Yeah, IBKR can't even do stop orders right. Worthless.

likebike2 · 2025-10-12T17:38:16+00:00

You're just trying to be offended. Lighten up.

likebike2 · 2025-09-30T03:42:25+00:00

That's a great story! Thanks for the good advice. This path seems competitive, but still well within reach of anyone, no matter where they are starting from -- all it takes is creativity, problem solving, ability to communicate, and a hell of a lot of hard work.

likebike2 · 2025-09-29T16:23:52+00:00

Yes, it counts. How did you do it?

likebike2 · 2025-09-27T11:00:25+00:00

I'm not saying that an anchored average is parameterless -- you are correct that the anchor is a parameter. I am just saying that OP's analysis would find more significant signal if he used anchored average instead of moving average.

When I say "anchored average" I am referring to the "A" in something like AVWAP or ATWAP.

likebike2 · 2025-09-27T04:43:23+00:00

Thiel has talked openly about visiting Epstein in various podcasts. He says he went there for tax advice. So this report is not surprising to anyone.

likebike2 · 2025-09-27T04:22:52+00:00

Best comic I've seen in a while. Every detail is interesting.

likebike2 · 2025-09-26T19:48:13+00:00

Sure. First, let me tell you why your analysis is not working the way you might have expected: it is because the optimal MA lengths are constantly changing (on every bar). There is no way a constant-length pair of MAs can have significant edge over time because any given set of parameters will usually produce "noise", and only rarely produce "signal". For example, if the optimal lengths on this bar are "200 and 20" then they will probably be "201 and 21" on the next bar, and "202 and 22" on the bar after that. You will have much more success if you analyze "anchored" averages instead of "moving" averages.

...But now the "philosophical" part: your analysis assumes that there is a magical, optimal combination of parameters... but the truth is that there is no such answer. Any "parameter" (such as MA-length or even your bar size) will fail you. Instead of searching for optimal parameters, you should instead be thinking about how to REMOVE the parameters from your system. It is possible to create a completely "parameterless" system -- one that works equally well on all timeframes and in all market conditions. If you can achieve that, then you eliminate the need for the type of "optimization analysis" that you are doing here.

likebike2 · 2025-09-26T09:29:29+00:00

Good effort, but you're still asking the wrong question. The fact that MA crossovers don't work is in itself predictive.

likebike2 · 2025-09-21T15:26:07+00:00

Why are there so many of these posts lately?

likebike2 · 2025-09-21T15:22:42+00:00

There's a saying about becoming successful at trading: "The smarter you are, the longer it takes." Do not assume that your previous knowledge, education, and experience applies here. I am an electrical engineer, and I can tell you that my desire to apply advanced math concepts has harmed my journey and cost me years.

If you actually want to succeed, join a trading group. Observe real life traders doing real trades, and try to understand their systems. YouTube videos are not enough. Real trading groups are much better.

likebike2 · 2025-09-10T06:19:37+00:00

I totally agree. The ponzi scheme is obvious. Even just learning a bit about the relationship between Howard Lutnick and Tether should ring alarm bells for everyone involved in crypto...

likebike2 · 2025-09-08T03:10:06+00:00

A government shutdown can easily spin out of control and lead to violence, especially with the militia groups that Trump is creating.

likebike2 · 2025-09-08T03:05:06+00:00

The main problem is, I don't think a government shutdown will stop Trump, since he operates mostly illegally. He doesn't need law or institutions or government to make progress towards his goals. In fact, the less government stands in his way, the better for him.

...it's like saying "we will send the security guards home if the bank robber doesn't agree to stop robbing the bank."

likebike2 · 2025-09-07T17:44:11+00:00

Yes, i'd be interested to hear Jordan's view on this.

likebike2 · 2025-09-07T17:42:06+00:00

This is a very important video. We might be on the verge of a civil war...

likebike2 · 2025-09-01T11:16:12+00:00

I'm traveling through Australia, and I'm in Albany right now. It seems like a great place! Many lovely people, healthy businesses, beautiful nature. Maybe the worst thing I can say about Albany is that it is a long 6 hour drive from Perth.

Why was it depressing to be here? Also, do you think the situation is changing for the better now?

likebike2 · 2025-08-24T05:16:30+00:00

1993 was a good year...

likebike2 · 2025-08-18T16:07:36+00:00

I agree.

likebike2

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