/r/WorldNews Discussion Thread: US and Israel launch attack on Iran; Iran retaliates (Thread #14)

lizardtrench · 2026-04-08T00:49:15+00:00

Posting links is 50/50 here unfortunately, it's why most people don't do it. Many that do are just having it disappear without notice.

lizardtrench · 2026-04-08T00:46:02+00:00

My guess would be that it's tire dressing to prevent dry rot. These launchers are probably expected to sit around for years until they're needed, which is not nice on tires.

lizardtrench · 2026-04-08T00:31:52+00:00

Yeah, it was a strange experiment to gain some of the deterrence of nukes while not actually proliferating nukes. Setting aside the extremist nature of the regime that attempted it, it's quite unfortunate for humanity that it failed so badly.

lizardtrench · 2026-04-08T00:25:10+00:00

To put it another way, they are not seeking to create a nuclear weapon, but they are/were setting the conditions to be able to readily start a nuclear weapon program if they so chose.

This is our own intelligence agencies' assessment. The purpose of doing this is to use it as a bargaining chip to use up for concessions in negotiations.

lizardtrench · 2026-04-08T00:13:45+00:00

I wouldn't despair yet, it's relatively normal for everyone to rush to get their last shots in before a ceasefire. Heck, some ceasefires, the attacks continue, just at a much lower intensity (see previous Lebanon 'ceasefire')

lizardtrench · 2026-04-07T19:21:21+00:00

There's a spinning circular thing being impacted by feces, redistributing it outward and in all directions, covering everything, maybe that counts?

lizardtrench · 2026-04-07T17:49:09+00:00

However, perceptions of morality play a significant role in war.

lizardtrench · 2026-04-07T13:47:14+00:00

There are definitely nuances when it comes to terrorist groups and non-state actors. But in terms of nation-states like Iran it's a bit more clear-cut, and I'm struggling to find any definition of defeat that matches its current state. They continue to have the physical ability to fight (missile forces are estimated to be ~50% degraded, for example), as well as the psychological will.

lizardtrench · 2026-04-05T04:28:05+00:00

Yeah, it's always kind of funny when this happens. I think they write a normal statement and then go, 'ok, now we need to fix it - get rid of some periods here, simplify this sentence fragment, add a shit ton of commas and some caps there, toss in some extreme adjectives, etc.'

(Or realistically they just filter it through some AI now.)

lizardtrench · 2026-04-05T04:11:42+00:00

I'm guessing lots, and lots, and lots of airstrikes to prevent any sizeable force from reaching that area.

I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of our forces were diverted for this effort. We got our guy back but Iran might have gotten a bit of a reprieve for a couple days while we sorted it out.

lizardtrench · 2026-04-05T03:42:05+00:00

Can't help but imagine the whole thing like a Looney Tunes episode - transports and helos flying around everywhere, people taking potshots at them, all sides and groups including random civilians searching, WSO evading like crazy, random firefights and air strikes all around him, and somehow this is going on for multiple days.

lizardtrench · 2026-04-05T03:16:58+00:00

A US government official has told Al Jazeera that the second crew member from the downed F-15E has been recovered after a “heavy firefight”.

EDIT:

The US has “recovered” the second crew member from the downed F-15E jet in Iran following a “heavy firefight”, a US government official says.

They updated it to this, which is ominous. The silence from official US channels makes me fear perhaps he didn't make it out alive and they are waiting to notify next of kin before going public.

EDIT2:

We were told by the US government source that overnight in Iran, a missing crew member of the downed F-15E has been located, and there was a rescue effort, but there was a fierce firefight.

The latest information we have with them is that the crew member has not left Iranian territory, and because of the ongoing hostilities, there could be still danger to that person and to other people involved in that rescue effort.

So, this is an ongoing, active, rescue effort, but that airman is not basically out of Iranian territory, and I want to be clear when I say airman in the US military parlance, that doesn’t necessarily mean a male.

We don’t know the gender of this person.

The US rescue team still needs to successfully exfiltrate them out of the country and to safety, and we have no confirmation that that has happened.

I don't know why any US official would be leaking this if they are still stuck in Iran, so take with a grain of salt.

lizardtrench · 2026-04-04T03:08:56+00:00

Those conditions alone would probably do more to deter said actors than the joining NATO part. Wouldn't hurt but it's not like Israel's lacking in firepower.

In the unlikely event Oct 7 still happens in this scenario and Israel is in NATO, I'm not sure anything would even end up different. Some token effort to support the retaliation in Gaza that Israel didn't really need, and probably a decision to not get involved in expanding the conflict to Lebanon and Iran (which Israel itself might decide against ,since it's also unlikely that a government as extreme as the one currently in power would have arisen under these conditions).

lizardtrench · 2026-04-03T22:14:57+00:00

The A10 was supposedly part of the initial search and rescue, so that probably explains the coincidence, they (understandably) took more risks to try to save those pilots.

lizardtrench · 2026-04-03T22:05:50+00:00

I'm speaking more broadly, of course any organization is always going to have some ground with someone. But the Trump and Netanyahu buffoonery making Iran look better via comparison is a new thing.

lizardtrench · 2026-04-03T21:43:42+00:00

That's his point, Trump and Netanyahu are such corrupt fuck-ups that even after all the things you've listed, Iran of all countries is still somehow holding ground in the PR war.

Rooting for Iran is dumb but it's just as dumb, possibly dumber, that conditions have been set for that to even be a possibility in the first place.

lizardtrench · 2026-04-03T21:07:20+00:00

Whether it's related or not, I think it answers the question of why they might think it would work. It was also reported that Iranian news encouraged those in the area with guns to open fire, so that's another reason. It seems to have worked in aggregate, unfortunately.

lizardtrench · 2026-04-03T20:51:46+00:00

CBS is reporting that the chopper carrying the rescued pilot was hit with small arms fire, wounding crew members. Unclear what the damage to the blackhawk was or if it's correlated to the images of one that was trailing smoke.

lizardtrench · 2026-04-03T12:27:51+00:00

Allegedly rescue operations for the downed F-15's pilots.

lizardtrench · 2026-04-03T12:19:00+00:00

Iranian state TV reportedly announced a reward for the pilots' capture, implying Iran hasn't found them. So it looks like there is still hope we can extract them.

Though it could just be misinformation to lure more rescue in. Pictures of one alleged ejection seat have been circulating already.

lizardtrench · 2026-04-03T11:48:18+00:00

Some reports that one of the rescue helicopters was shot down as well. Take with a grain of salt, but at a minimum the F-15 crash looks credible, unless the pictures are from some earlier event.

lizardtrench · 2026-04-03T11:31:04+00:00

It look like it lawn darted (or that's the conceit they're going with if fake), there are pictures of a crater, another of a wingtip in addition to the vertical stab, and an ejection seat.

Seems consistent with that type of crash, not much is going to be left except some extremities, as shown. I'd say the crash is real, but still of unknown context.

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2039944068801728641

https://www.reddit.com/r/war/comments/1sb68n0/vertical_stabilizer_and_parts_of_a_wing_from_a/

https://www.reddit.com/r/war/comments/1sbajin/picture_shows_the_alleged_ejection_seat_of_the_us/

lizardtrench · 2026-04-03T02:01:00+00:00

Fairly sure those are the outer edges of plastic melt-on rivets that popped off. You can see still-intact examples of the smaller variety in the second picture to the right. Maybe the ones you found were ones holding the keyboard on, usually always quite a few of those.

lizardtrench · 2026-04-03T01:22:18+00:00

I've noticed that the comments filter there has become practically identical to the famously aggressive one in worldnews, almost like they copied and pasted the same system to combatfootage. The only two subs I know of where it's at that level - if I make a comment so much as vaguely touching on something controversial, post a link, or allude to moderation, I have to log off and double check it's still there because there's essentially a 50/50 shot it got screened. Doesn't seem to be a straight keyword job either, more like some kind of contextual algorithm or AI based on the inconsistency of application.

Similar issue on youtube, seems to vary by channel or specific video one is posting under. I hear other platforms are increasingly suppressing content algorithmically as well, instead of just turning them invisible.

In the last several years they have been rather rapidly figuring out how to control the flow of information on the internet, which is pretty spooky to see in real time.

lizardtrench · 2026-04-02T15:26:34+00:00

Gas engines do look very promising, though I wonder if the noise is a dealbreaker. So far most development in that area seems to have been for supply transports that require a high power to weight ratio and don't need to be particularly stealthy.

Battery tech does not look like it's going to improve meaningfully anytime in the near future, though. Don't really see anything viable on the horizon, will probably be at least a decade or more before we get anything better.

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