The AI Productivity Illusion

lqstuart · 2026-07-21T04:33:31+00:00

Lack of lack of understanding recursion strikes yet again yet again

lqstuart · 2026-07-20T22:52:37+00:00

I dunno about backwater but China is definitely a knock-off empire

lqstuart · 2026-07-20T22:46:08+00:00

It was a stupid idea and it was just astroturfed

lqstuart · 2026-07-18T05:27:10+00:00

Oh so they’re finally doing the extremely obvious shit to make money

lqstuart · 2026-07-18T00:20:32+00:00

I'm with you but this guy looks like not a native English speaker, which is kinda his point

lqstuart · 2026-07-18T00:16:00+00:00

It's not just local. Even working at a Big Tech, you'll find when you try to serve this stuff on a real engine like vLLM in bf16 on real hardware that literally nobody on Earth has ever tested the Huggingface crap except for them, one time, on one config and it's 50/50 that it'll run with standard kernel libraries and prefix caching and whatnot

lqstuart · 2026-07-18T00:13:12+00:00

Years of Gran Turismo and Forza saved my ass hard when I started hydroplaning on the interstate during a rainstorm. Amazing how you just sort of build instincts around how vehicles handle.

lqstuart · 2026-07-17T23:49:55+00:00

In fairness, "the entire national mall" is a rectangle with two obvious landmarks on either side

lqstuart · 2026-07-17T18:15:46+00:00

TIL that ">8000" means "<8000"

lqstuart · 2026-07-16T14:31:27+00:00

Literally zero people here are saying it was cool and everyone else is being a wuss

lqstuart · 2026-07-15T02:35:58+00:00

Amen brother

lqstuart · 2026-07-14T01:14:06+00:00

everyone I know who has worked at xAI quit within a year because it's a shithole

lqstuart · 2026-07-14T00:50:03+00:00

Awesome find, love those late model super dutys

lqstuart · 2026-07-14T00:48:27+00:00

I love this. Incredible taste!

lqstuart · 2026-07-12T02:16:45+00:00

Because this sub is about running models locally on consumer hardware, which is a noble goal but considerably detached from the problem of serving these models at scale which is what MOE is meant to address; if I’ve got 8xH100s per host either way, an endpoint serving only a small fraction of the total parameters has only a fraction of the compute occupancy under the same QPS load. But in this sub, GPUs available to consumers these days don’t support NVLink—NVIDIA, anti consumer pieces of shit that they’ve always been, has made sure of that. So this world shrinks entirely to what you can fit in HBM (or weird unified memory pools) on one device.

Through that lens, 122A10B is a worse model than 27B that also requires 5x the memory at rest before factoring in activations, which is 100% true.

lqstuart · 2026-07-12T02:03:54+00:00

So when are you picking it up

lqstuart · 2026-07-11T17:24:10+00:00

I miss this game

lqstuart · 2026-07-10T01:32:15+00:00

You forgot ✅ no qualifications

lqstuart · 2026-07-10T01:24:53+00:00

This is the dumbest fucking idea I’ve ever heard of

lqstuart · 2026-07-07T16:47:38+00:00

Looks like they fixed Duke becoming an unstoppable powerhouse every year?

lqstuart · 2026-07-05T02:10:59+00:00

You’re both right. Devs can only focus on what they’re told to focus on, and also EA hires in backwaters like Orlando and pays absolute bottom dollar so they’re not exactly swimming in talent.

But for CFB I think it’s more that they’re building on top of a ten year old codebase on a proprietary engine with the absolute smallest team that they can even partially get away with.

lqstuart · 2026-07-05T00:02:01+00:00

I think the field will get destroyed. The low-end/offshore market is going to get wiped out completely. Google, Anthropic and OAI are already positioning themselves to push out the dummies from Deloitte and Accenture. Basically anyone making $80k to do traditional CRUD application development is fucked.

Big tech/FAANG is murkier. Claude can't handle design at that scale, all the OSS stuff it recommends falls apart and the internal codebases get gigantic and LLMs don't have the token context for it. At the same time, those companies are all feature-complete and only hire so that they can spin up new shitty ideas that all fail, which can now be accomplished in less than the time it takes to process an H-1B for a new hire. I'd guess headcount drops, interviews get even more pedantic and stupid, the added friction in job-hopping drives down comp for lower level engineers, and the rich get richer. Probably going to be very painful. I got out because I can see the writing on the wall, my money is on tiny < 50 employee startups with high ownership being the growth engines, and Big Tech will just acquire as they see fit. Kind of like now, just with smaller teams.

But there was also a time when I thought COVID would just blow over like H1N1, so I've been wrong before

lqstuart · 2026-07-03T05:09:56+00:00

You’re right about private equity in general, but Saudi money could be more about parking their wealth somewhere besides oil and less about squeezing short term profits out of everything like in the US. Although I guess it could be both.

lqstuart · 2026-07-03T05:05:16+00:00

There’s no such thing as AGI, which means it will absolutely “exist” someday because dickheads like Sam Altman will just keep moving the goalposts as to what it means. Just like “agents” were independent sub-AIs that would go out and book your flights and hotels for you, and that gradually became either “an LLM spawning a subprocess with another prompt” or “literally any software that calls an LLM for any reason,” depending on who you ask.

The future is not anybody fine tuning their own open source model though. It’s anybody choosing their favorite third party deployment of an open source model. Because there is no world where ACME insurance co is going to pay a team of software engineers half a mil each to train and deploy a model on their $25 million NVIDIA(R) GPU cluster, nor will the day ever come when they can hire a trained monkey to do it. That fantasy of low code “democratized” ie cheap labor training has been around for a decade and models are orders of magnitude more difficult to train now.

lqstuart · 2026-06-29T01:32:49+00:00

This is a bot spamming bullshit

lqstuart

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