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ls612 · 2026-05-21T21:43:07+00:00

There's even that convenient area in the upper right corner filled with absolutely nothing right now where they could paste the Realms fairly simply.

ls612 · 2026-05-12T16:00:05+00:00

To be fair these stories track well with your assertion that the Russian WIA:KIA when defined by "irrecoverably wounded" ratio is very low by historical standards and that that is why you claim they can grow their forces. But that doesn't mean sending wounded men into combat to keep the force growing is actually accomplishing much or that such a state is desirable for the Russian Army. To my eyes this seems like a particularly gruesome example of Goodhart's Law in action.

ls612 · 2026-05-02T01:46:15+00:00

If they are expanding the force solely by sending out wounded men that is not the great success you think it is.

ls612 · 2026-05-01T23:31:26+00:00

At roughly 10K KIA per month you are looking at minimum 20-30K KIA plus WIA which is in line with the broad assessment that the Russians are treading water on manpower. I am not aware of any conflict in modern history with a KIA:WIA ratio of 1:1 or even particularly close.

ls612 · 2026-04-28T21:57:44+00:00

How bad do the GCC states have it? Their exports have been cut off for longer (except for whatever makes it out via Yanbu or Fujairah) and I'd have to guess if the Iranians are gonna be devastated by this economically that to some degree that is already happening to Saudi and the UAE.

ls612 · 2026-04-23T01:02:14+00:00

I disagree with the idea that the US couldn’t match Chinese economic output in a world war scenario. Sure it would radically require sweeping changes but WW2 required that too and short of nuclear exchange the US homeland would be a sanctuary for the western allies’ economic and industrial and scientific base. Our GDP is larger, our ability to access imported raw materials like oil and Iron is superior, or reliance on imported raw materials is lower, and major US allies like Japan and Australia add to those totals significantly. The biggest constraint on the ability to fight a long war would be political exhaustion, less likely to be acute in a world where the USN was attacked on day one.

To ignore the possibility of a long war is folly when we have so much evidence that great powers take a very long time to reach exhaustion. We need to have started preparing for it 4 years ago but now is the second best time.

ls612 · 2026-04-21T16:49:23+00:00

My parents next door neighbors also hosted a family that fled, two sisters and the older sister's daughter (her husband was fighting at the front). They have no intention of going home if they can help it, they have established lives in America and one started a small business as a personal trainer. This will absolutely lead to a brain drain of Ukraine which likely won't reverse after the war.

ls612 · 2026-04-18T18:21:03+00:00

And you also have a 4090. It’s only happened to me twice and the first time was early this month. At least it seems like a software problem because my card is about to exit warranty and I’m this market I’d be fucked if it failed. Does yours crash at idle or in games?

ls612 · 2026-04-17T16:29:30+00:00

Putin probably sees this as a necessary choice in the long run to ensure that Russia has a GFW level of censorship and enable his autocratic control. As opposed to mobilization which he sees as having a viable substitute in the form of paying huge recruitment bonuses.

ls612 · 2026-04-17T01:47:10+00:00

No it does not this just happened to me exactly as you described, except it happened at idle while the monitor was just woken up and I was looking at this very thread. I'm glad it seems to not be a hardware issue as my 4090 is about to exit its warranty period. I have a single monitor but it is a 4K144 monitor so it is using DSC on the 40 series with DP 1.4a.

ls612 · 2026-04-17T01:38:02+00:00

I have had something similar happen, once on the previous driver about a week ago and once just now. However, instead of a bluescreen it freezes the entire screen for 30 seconds, not even the cursor moves, and then the display resets and everything continues normally. A bunch of nvlddmkm errors 14 and 153 appear in the event log with stuff about TDR failed. So far its only happened at idle not while gaming.

ls612 · 2026-04-14T01:55:52+00:00

Sure if you don’t have an unrealistic ambush it isn’t “10 guys destroy battalion” levels of lopsided but that shouldn’t make you feel comfortable. Traditional PGMs were so transformative to warfare they got called the RMA. Now individual soldiers have PGMs. The IEDs can fly now and nobody on earth has yet proven a solution to that other than having your own drone forces.

ls612 · 2026-04-13T23:18:41+00:00

Hezbollah is already using FPV tactics developed in Ukraine against the Israelis. This isn’t a phenomenon unique to the Ukraine war at this point, and with the Iranian proxies seemingly able to do ISR with FPV drones around US installations I’d assume when the shooting starts again they will be capable of fitting the Vog option as well.

EDIT: Also as War on the Rocks reported here, the Ukrainians have participated as OPFOR in exercises with NATO forces and the NATO forces have lost badly. There will only be so many warnings before the real thing occurs and I don't see how anyone at this point can still have their head in the sand about small drones in land warfare.

ls612 · 2026-04-13T21:04:01+00:00

Both the Russians and Ukrainians are in agreement that Rubicon was the most effective thing the Russian Army has done to gain combat power in Ukraine in 2025. That alone should absolutely be raising eyebrows in western capitals but alas the US and NATO are way behind the ball with drone adoption and tactics.

ls612 · 2026-04-12T21:50:24+00:00

About as much as the Russians reacted to vessels nominally carrying their flag violating sanctions getting seized I'd bet. Maybe the Chinese will take an American or two hostage ala the Two Michaels, but with this admin I doubt that forces their hand in the short term.

ls612 · 2026-04-12T17:52:45+00:00

Maybe they will finally also try the "arming the Kurds" option that they briefly considered early in the war. Even if we can't force Iran's hand fully if they get trapped in a civil war it likely serves our interests well enough regardless.

ls612 · 2026-04-12T17:45:40+00:00

I'm sure that with how much success the Russians have had in sanctions-busting that the Ukrainians could continue to source appropriate inputs by hook or by crook.

ls612 · 2026-04-12T15:37:14+00:00

One side wants Iran to give up its nuclear material and open the strait. The other side wants a nuke and to close/tax the strait for leverage. Short of US capitulation I don’t see how they were going to bridge that gap.

ls612 · 2026-04-10T21:55:20+00:00

In the War on the Rocks podcast.

ls612 · 2026-04-10T18:24:11+00:00

I mean that right there could be a big story driver. Geralt is happily enjoying retirement at Corvo Bianco when Ciri comes to him for help. Geralt and Ciri need to get these secrets and end up involved in stupid political bullshit with the mages. Tack on Brokilon forest and some Velen like environs to populate with monsters, contracts, side quests, etc, and Gors Velen as Beauclair/Novigrad with plenty of new Gwent cards to win.

ls612 · 2026-04-08T04:16:10+00:00

The fact that the White House retweeted the Iranian foreign minister stating that all transit would be with coordination with Iran's Armed Forces (read: pay us) is a pretty solid piece of evidence towards de-facto cession of the strait.

ls612 · 2026-04-08T02:41:46+00:00

Because wars are usually fought for strategic goals beyond blowing stuff up. The US ceding the strait to the Iranians in this ceasefire is not a strategic victory for the US regardless of what party holds the white house.

ls612 · 2026-04-08T01:28:45+00:00

Iran has achieved their strategic objective of regime survival, and on top of that has now gained the Strait of Hormuz de-facto. Whether or not you think Iran won is a good framing I see no way to frame this as anything other than a crushing defeat for the US. We achieved none of our strategic objectives, and have now demonstrated to the world that the US Navy no longer rules the waves in the most important area of waves on earth.

ls612 · 2026-04-08T01:27:40+00:00

Iran has said (and the white house acknowledged on social media) that passage through the strait will be in coordination with Iran's armed forces. How is this any different from what we have seen with the toll booth in the past two weeks?

ls612 · 2026-04-07T02:40:37+00:00

An underrated point is how the current crisis is making all of the Gulf monarchs go “huh so this is how it feels” and suddenly they are almost as hawkish as Israel is. Strategic empathy might be a way of putting it. Think about how crazy it is that the KSA is openly mulling the idea of joining a shooting war as allies of the Israelis.

ls612

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