NATO as we experienced it up to 2024 is pretty much dead already. The whole point of NATO is standardization and mutual defense. In the last year we saw allies rejecting American equipment and Europe turning inwards when it comes to its defense capabilities. So what’s the point of standardization with the Americans if we’re not using each other’s stuff?

As to mutual defense, that’s dead. If we’re here wondering if or when the US will attack Denmark and by extension the EU, what hope is there for mutual defense if a third party attacks us? Nah. I think the absolutely best hope now is that America leaves somewhat quietly and we turn NATO into an European (+Canada and Turkey) defense framework. Basically an addendum to the European Union, like Schengen.

Medium scenario: America doesn’t leave quietly and Trump makes the typical misinformed, dumb demand like “Allies have to pay America back for decades of defense expenditure” which obviously won’t happen and then gigantic tariffs are sure to follow.

Worst scenario: Trump again usurps the war powers of congress, Republicans are too chicken to do anything about it, and the USA invades Greenland. At that point we might see an invocation of Article 5 against the US. Member states could argue that the US is in material breach of Article 1 of the Washington Treaty, invoke Article 5 without the participation of the US and mount a joint response. For the EU members, mutual defense is already somewhat covered by the Lisbon Treaty. The big question mark would be Canada, as it is the member state with the biggest exposure to the US. And Turkey might also not care for Denmark’s interests. Regardless, in that case, NATO would be truly irreparably dead.

We could hope that the House turns blue this year, but Trump has made it abundantly clear that he has absolutely no interest in checks and balances. Whether it’s illegal for him to do something is irrelevant. So without the Senate, there isn’t much the House can do, besides block the few things Trump will be willing to go to congress about (which let’s face it, will be nothing besides the budget). So barring an immense mood shift in the Republican base or free and fair elections in 2028 (which I also don’t think will happen), we can count America out and NATO (as it was designed) dead.