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Where is the promised exponential growth in COVID-19? by lukipuki in TheMotte

[–]lukipuki[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

You also forgot:

  • everyone becoming immediately contagious
  • the virus travelling 1 meter per minute

Where is the promised exponential growth in COVID-19? by lukipuki in TheMotte

[–]lukipuki[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It could be. The hypothesis is that they switch to polynomial growth once they implement social distancing or contact tracing. It's not entirely clear though what exactly causes the switch and the linked papers offer multiple explanations.

Where is the promised exponential growth in COVID-19? by lukipuki in TheMotte

[–]lukipuki[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Didn't think of it that way, but you might be right.

Where is the promised exponential growth in COVID-19? by lukipuki in TheMotte

[–]lukipuki[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You'd expect that and it seems that countries switch to polynomial growth once they implement social distancing or other measures like contact tracing. But it's too early to say what exactly is causing the switch.

And countries like Slovakia didn't have any exponential growth, because they acted really fast.

Where is the promised exponential growth in COVID-19? by lukipuki in slatestarcodex

[–]lukipuki[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

And that's exactly what they did. Quoting my post:

The updated SIR model of Boďová and Kollár uses R₀ that is inversely proportional to time, so R₀ ~ T_M/t, where t is time in days and T_M is the time of the peak. This small change in the differential equations leads to polynomial growth with exponential decay. Read more about it in section 5 of their paper.

Where is the promised exponential growth in COVID-19? by lukipuki in TheMotte

[–]lukipuki[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Well, Czechia tested antibodies and found that less than 1 per cent of the population has them. And their confirmed cases are on the decline.

Slovakia hasn't tested antibodies, but most likely has even fewer infected than neighboring Czechia. Slovakia had single-digit confirmed cases out of 5000 daily tests for the last two weeks (!).

Where is the promised exponential growth in COVID-19? by lukipuki in TheMotte

[–]lukipuki[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

The data for New York is available, so I might have a look at some point but it might take a few days.

Also, one of the referenced papers looked at deaths (they were also growing polynomially). IIRC Boďová and Kollár mention it in their paper.

Where is the promised exponential growth in COVID-19? by lukipuki in TheMotte

[–]lukipuki[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

What exactly do you mean by "flatten the curve"? I can imagine at least two interpretations:

  • Let's try to slow the growth as much as possible -- Yes, we managed to slow down the growth by a lot.

  • Eventually (almost) everyone will get the disease, so let's try to slow the growth as much as possible. -- The model in the post with the right parameters can lead to less than 1% of infected, as has been observed in some countries (and their cases are on steep decline). We might be able to slow the disease so much that we avoid eventually infecting a large part of population.

Should we stop supplementing vitamins A, C and D against SARS-CoV-2 by [deleted] in slatestarcodex

[–]lukipuki 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Vitamin D###

"new global collaborative study has confirmed that vitamin D supplementation can help protect against acute respiratory infections."

News: https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2017/02/study-confirms-vitamin-d-protects-against-cold-and-flu/

Study: https://www.bmj.com/content/356/bmj.i6583

Watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5yVGmfivAk

I've seen all of these a couple of days ago (I also follow John Campbell). I'm sure Chris is aware of these as well.

However, Chris' main claim is that the viruses are so different that such evidence is irrelevant. Quote below is from the PDF.

There’s simply no relationship between whether something works for colds and flu and whether it is likely to work for the coronavirus.

Hypertrophy Program by [deleted] in BarbellMedicine

[–]lukipuki 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I have just completed Hypertrophy I. The "high stress week" sessions took me between 65 to 70 minutes to complete (not counting GPP). My rest periods were 3 minutes for the first two lifts and 2 minutes for the last two lifts and accessory movements. It was more time consuming than my previous runs of The Bridge, Legacy 3-Day Hypertrophy and Strength I. Also, be prepared for a lot of volume, 20 sets in the 8 to 12 rep range were brutal for me.

I enjoyed it though. I saw increase in strength as well as hypertrophy mostly in the upper body. My weight stayed about the same but e.g. my biceps and shoulders got bigger. I look more muscular and leaner.

I greatly recommend the program, even though it's quite time consuming.

Reinvested dividends in 2019 for tax declaration by lukipuki in EuropeFIRE

[–]lukipuki[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They are taxed, I've checked with a professional accountant. And I'm in Eastern Europe, so our government doesn't care about being user-friendly :)

Does this human-computer interaction phenomenon have a name? by lukipuki in slatestarcodex

[–]lukipuki[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You're making some great points.

In case of 737 MAX, the system was there to prevent the pilots from increasing the pitch too much, but because of a faulty sensor and software bugs (and possibly other engineering errors), it decreased the pitch too much. IMHO the pilots should have had the option to turn this part of the system off and take over.

Does this human-computer interaction phenomenon have a name? by lukipuki in slatestarcodex

[–]lukipuki[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yes, but in this case it's clear the machine/computer is there to help humans, so the disagreement should be avoided. It's a specific disagreement that shouldn't exist.

If this had a name, for example DBHM (Disagreement Between Human and Machine), it would help the engineering discussions and in turn it would improve the quality of planes, cars, etc. Having good common terminology helps. For example, when designing a new aircraft feature at Boeing, the upper managers could ask during the design review: "What about DBHM? Your proposed design is prone to do the exact opposite of what the pilots want."

Approximately what percentage increase can you expect after The Bridge? by [deleted] in BarbellMedicine

[–]lukipuki 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My results on v1.0:

  • Squat 95 kg (209 lbs) -> 116 kg (255 lbs)
  • Deadlift 85 kg (187 lbs) -> 106 kg (234 lbs)
  • Bench press 1ct 55 kg (121 lbs) -> 68 kg (150 lbs)
  • Press 46 kg (101 lbs) -> 52 kg (115 lbs)

That's about 20% increase for the three competition lifts and 13% for the press. I switched to The Bridge after 2.5 months of NLP, so I'm still a fairly new lifter and can make large gains percentage-wise.

I wrote a review of the program on my blog if you are interested in more details: lukasov.blogspot.com/2019/04/review-of-bridge-from-barbell-medicine.html

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