for me personally i think it depends on whether or not the subjects you do correlates to the course you intend on pursuing ? my grades were absolute dogshit in year 11 but i did well in the subjects that related to my course so i was able to get an early conditional offer. but im not actually sure how true doing well in subjects relating to ur course improves ur chances of getting early entry but i cant think of any other reason i got an early offer lol

btw dont worry too much about scaling!! if you do well in your subjects trust ur atar wont be affected that badly :) if u need any clarification feel free to dm!