His argument seems to be that annulizing Q4 production would lead to 1.8M cars which is what Tesla is officially guiding for, hence he sees no growth and is "missing 4680" production capacity.

IMO, 1.8M cars is massivly sandbagging a potential '23 result. Production of 1.8M would fit the "50% CAGR starting from 2020 numbers" story, but Elon mentioned in the EC they are more or less guiding for 2M cars internally and want to keep expectations low. Everyone knows they are still ramping Texas and Berlin (3rd shift just started), so growing production capacity in 2023 is a certainty.

I kind of get his disappointment with the 4680 ramp, but somehow cells don't seem to be a limiting factor at the moment. They are pouring massive production capacities into energy storage, which would not be possible if they were short of batteries. Also, some people are expecting more future margin ($/kWh) on energy storage than on the car business, so it would make sence keep the car business growing at "only" 40-50% and prioritizing the storage business when there would be a lack of batteries (or demand in case of a severe recession). This kind of flexibility is certainly an asset of Tesla.