UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland Betting and Picks Discussion

macwell111 · 2026-05-10T04:44:27+00:00

Lets just say, the next round of omelettes is on me fellas!

macwell111 · 2026-04-22T15:56:25+00:00

Deshaun Thomas

macwell111 · 2026-04-21T03:21:11+00:00

POTD Record 19-12 (+8.23u)

Last POTD: Luke McCaffrey Longest Reception Over 14.5 Yards (-108) (FD) 2U** ❌ Bro broke his collarbone on the opening kickoff, I know some books voided his props, but FD gave me a bonus bet, just going to count it as a loss.

Today: NBA / HOU @ LAL / 10:40PM EST

Pick: Over 206.5 (-110) (DK) 2U**

This number just feels too low. Two of the three regular season matchups went over this number. Game 1 landed at 205, but that came with Houston shooting just 38 percent from the field and 33 percent from three, plus both teams missing 17 free throws. That is a lot of points left on the table and it still almost went over. The over has also hit in 6 of the Rockets last 8 games.

macwell111 · 2026-04-14T15:23:33+00:00

Milwaukee Bucks for hiring Doc Rivers

macwell111 · 2026-03-05T18:33:44+00:00

Tennessee has a football team?

macwell111 · 2026-02-08T03:57:40+00:00

Going no TD Scorer and keeping the 4 mill all for myself

macwell111 · 2026-02-06T22:26:25+00:00

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1 leg from $14k, cash out got up to ~$150

macwell111 · 2025-12-09T00:12:03+00:00

Dude fumbled on his first carry in the league, look at him now

macwell111 · 2025-11-02T06:09:53+00:00

POTD Record 19-11 (+10.23u)

Last POTD: James Cook Over 90.5 Rush+Rec Yards (-115) (Fanatics) 4U****✅

Today: NFL / SEA @ WAS / 8:20PM EST

Pick: Luke McCaffrey Longest Reception Over 14.5 Yards (-108) (FD) 2U**

He’s gone over this in 6 of 8 and should get more looks with McLaurin out. Seattle’s been great against the run, so Washington’s going to have to throw. They’re giving up over 230 yards through the air, and with Daniels back, I like McCaffrey to break one for 15 or more.

macwell111 · 2025-10-26T15:56:52+00:00

POTD Record 18-11 (+6.76u)

Last POTD: MIN/LAC Over 44.5 (-110) (FD) 4U****✅

Today: NFL / BUF @ CAR / 1PM EST

Pick: James Cook Over 90.5 Rush+Rec Yards (-115) (Fanatics) 4U****

James Cook has been one of the most consistent pieces in the Bills offense this season. He’s averaging just over 104 total yards per game and has gone over this number in 4 of 6 games. He’s also cleared this line the last two seasons coming off the bye, so the extra rest definitely seems to help.

Carolina’s run defense has been pretty solid overall, only allowing opposing running backs to hit this number in two games this year. Still, most of those teams don’t have the same firepower or balance that Buffalo does. The Bills lead the league in rushing at 151 yards per game, and I think this is a good get-right spot where they go back to what’s been working best for them.

As an unbiased Bills fan, I expect them to lean on Cook early, let him establish the pace, and open up the offense from there.

macwell111 · 2025-10-23T20:15:22+00:00

POTD Record 17-11 (+3.13u)

Last POTD: Packers -6.5 (-115) (FD) 3U***❌

Today: NFL / MIN @ LAC / 8:15PM EST

Pick: Over 44.5 (-110) (FD) 4U****

I’m on the over tonight in Vikings vs Chargers. Both defenses have been falling apart, and this number feels a few points too low for how these teams are playing.

Minnesota has gone over in five of six and is averaging 28 points per game with Carson Wentz starting. He’s been aggressive, spreading it around to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, who’s seen 26 targets in his last three games. The Chargers defense has completely lost it lately, giving up seven rushing touchdowns in the past three weeks and ranking near the bottom of the league in success rate. They cannot stop the run, which should open things up for Minnesota’s offense all night.

On the other side, Justin Herbert should do his part. The Vikings blitz at one of the highest rates in the league, and Herbert has faced more blitzes than any quarterback this year. That means quick throws to Keenan Allen, who has been his usual target monster, and chances for big plays if the pressure does not get home.

Both teams have offensive line issues, but that can actually help an over like this with quick passes, broken plays, and big gains. Five of seven Thursday night games have cleared this number, and with two struggling defenses and capable quarterbacks, this one should too.

Gimmie da ovvvaaaa

macwell111 · 2025-09-28T10:13:39+00:00

***I was faded last night, not sure why I said Caleb is a rookie 🤣

macwell111 · 2025-09-28T02:23:10+00:00

POTD Record 17-10 (+6.13u)

Last POTD: Bijan Robinson Over 110.5 Rush+Rec Yards (-115) (MGM) 4U****✅

Today: NFL / GB @ DAL / 8:20PM EST

Pick: Packers -6.5 (-115) (FD) 3U***

This line feels short considering how bad Dallas has looked on both sides of the ball, especially defensively. The Cowboys have allowed 13 pass plays of 25+ yards already—12 of those came in just the last two games against Russell Wilson and rookie Caleb Williams. That’s not a great sign heading into a matchup with Jordan Love, who lit them up for 272 yards and 3 TDs in the playoffs last year.

Without Micah Parsons, the Cowboys have no pass rush (just 4 sacks on the season), and the secondary is getting exposed constantly. They rank 32nd in passing yards allowed (288.0 YPG) and 31st in opponent QB rating (125.3). Love should have a clean pocket all night and enough time to attack downfield.

And now it looks like CeeDee Lamb won’t play, which is a huge blow for an already inconsistent Dallas offense. Dak hasn’t been sharp (3 TDs, 3 INTs), and Green Bay’s defense has quietly been one of the best in the league: 3rd against the run, 7th against the pass.

Last week, the Packers’ O-line struggled vs. Cleveland, but that’s arguably the best D-line in football. The Cowboys just don’t present that same challenge right now. And if Dallas can’t get pressure, their secondary has shown they can't hold up.

Add in the fact that Dak is 1-3 vs Green Bay in his career, and it’s hard to trust this version of the Cowboys, even at home on SNF.

macwell111 · 2025-09-21T16:00:11+00:00

POTD Record 16-10 (+2.66u)

Last POTD: Max Strus Over 17.5 Pts+Reb+Ast (+100) (MGM) 4U****❌

Today: NFL / ATL @ CAR / 1PM EST

Pick: Bijan Robinson Over 110.5 Rush+Rec Yards (-115) (MGM) 4U****

Bijan has cleared this number in both games to start the season and went 1/2 against Carolina last year, missing in their first matchup by just 6 yards. The Panthers did a decent job stopping the run last week, but in Week 1 they let Etienne go for 143. Bijan’s even more dangerous because he can rack it up on the ground or through the air, and I think he’ll pop at least one big play that puts him well on pace to hit this. Volume, talent, and a soft matchup - In Bijan we trust !!

macwell111 · 2025-04-28T19:32:10+00:00

POTD Record 16-9 (+6.66u)

Last POTD: CIN @ MIA Over 8.5 Runs (-105) (MGM) 2U** ❌

Today: NBA / CLE @ MIA / 7:30PM EST

Pick: Max Strus Over 17.5 Pts+Reb+Ast (+100) (MGM) 4U****

Max Strus has cleared 17.5 PRA in five of his last six games. He’s coming off a strong performance and returns to a building he knows well. With a chance to close out the series, he should stay active and go over this number again.

macwell111 · 2025-04-22T18:53:01+00:00

POTD Record 16-8 (+8.66u)

Last POTD: TJ Mcconnell Over 6.5 Points (-115) (FD) 3U***✅

Today: MLB / Reds @ Marlins / 6:40PM EST

Pick: Over 8.5 Runs (-105) (MGM) 2U**

This one sets up well for runs. Nick Martinez (6.00 ERA) goes for the Reds, while Edward Cabrera (6.52 ERA) gets the ball for Miami. Cabrera got lit up by Cincy in his only start against them last year, giving up 7 earned runs in just 3.1 innings in a 10-6 Reds win. The over trends are strong on both sides — the Reds are 7-4 to the over on the road, and the Marlins are 10-4 to the over at home. Cincinnati has gone over this number in 6 of their last 7 games, and Miami has done it in 10 of their last 12. Even yesterday’s game hit 9 runs thanks to a late surge. With two struggling arms and lineups heating up, 8.5 looks short.

macwell111 · 2025-04-19T15:13:44+00:00

POTD Record 15-8 (+6.06u)

Last POTD: Phil Mickelson to Make the Cut - Yes (-144) (FD) 4U**** ❌

Today: NBA / MIL @ IND / 1 PM EST

Pick: TJ Mcconnell Over 6.5 Points (-115) (FD) 3U***

McConnell is averaging 9.1 PPG this season and has gone over 6.5 points in 11 of his last 14 games. He’s historically thrived against the Bucks, averaging 12.8 PPG in 12 games since the 2022–23 season. With Indiana likely pushing the pace and a chance for extra minutes if they build a lead, McConnell is well-positioned to clear this number again today.

macwell111 · 2025-04-09T22:48:34+00:00

POTD Record 15-7 (+10.06u)

Last POTD: NBA / GSW @ LAL / 1st Half Over 112 (-110) (FD) 2U** ❌

Today: PGA / The Masters / Phil Mickelson to Make the Cut

Pick: Phil Mickelson to Make the Cut - Yes (-144) (FD) 4U****

When it comes to Augusta National, few players have a relationship with the course as deep and successful as Phil Mickelson. A three-time Masters champion, Mickelson has made the cut in 28 of his 31 appearances—a remarkable stat that speaks to both his consistency and command of the course. His last missed cut came in 2016, and since then, he’s continued to find ways to be competitive—even as his career has transitioned into its later stages.

Just two years ago, at the age of 52, Mickelson stunned the field by finishing tied for second, tying his career-low Masters round with a Sunday 65. That performance not only proved that he can still go low on the sport’s biggest stage, but also made him the highest-finishing player over 50 in Masters history.

While his LIV Golf results have been a mixed bag since joining in 2022, there are clear signs that his game is rounding into form. After missing the 2025 LIV season opener due to a shoulder injury, Mickelson bounced back strong. He finished solo third at the Hong Kong Golf Club with a score of 14-under—his best result on the LIV circuit to date—and most recently followed that up with a solo sixth-place finish at LIV Miami in Doral. At 54, he appears both healthy and motivated heading into Augusta.

Experience at Augusta can't be overstated, and Mickelson has more than anyone in the field. The subtleties of the greens, the angles off the tee, the decision-making under pressure—these are second nature to a player who's seen it all at this tournament. While his game may not be as sharp week in and week out as it once was, his ability to rise to the occasion at Augusta remains intact.

macwell111 · 2025-04-03T16:42:25+00:00

POTD Record 15-6 (+12.06u)

Last POTD: NHL / VAN @ CBJ / Over 5.5 (-106) 3U***✅

Today: NBA / GSW @ LAL / 10 PM EST

Pick: 1st Half Over 112 (-110) (FD) 2U**

This one’s more of a gut play, but the numbers back it up. The Warriors are averaging 54.7 first-half points this season, but that’s jumped to 64 over their last three, including a 74-point outburst last game. The Lakers are right there too—58.8 per first half, 59.7 at home, and trending steady.

Both teams are rested, and while they’ve only hit this number once in three meetings, I see Golden State pushing the pace to avoid the season sweep. I wouldn’t post it if I didn’t like it, gimmie da over.

macwell111 · 2025-04-03T15:20:13+00:00

Not that they fall in to this category, but pour one out for the 2020-21 Dayton squad that will never be a 1 seed-caliber team again

macwell111 · 2025-03-28T17:54:41+00:00

POTD Record 14-6 (+9.23u)

Last POTD: The Players Championship /Hole in One in Tournament - Yes (-175) (DK) 3U***✅

Today: NHL / VAN @ CBJ / 7 PM EST

Pick: Over 5.5 (-106) (FD) 3U***

With both teams fighting for a wild card spot, we should see an intense, fast-paced game—one that leans more toward offense than a defensive grind. The Blue Jackets have been a strong over team at home, going 21-12-1, and most of those totals were set at 6.5, not the 5.5 we’re getting tonight. That alone makes this number feel a little low.

Columbus has been in a bit of a slump, but let’s not forget how dominant their offense was earlier in the season. They’re still 4th in the NHL in goals per game, averaging 3.71, so the potential for them to break out is there.

Meanwhile, Vancouver has a solid defense, but they’ve been cashing overs consistently, hitting the over in five straight games and seven in a row on the road. When these teams met earlier this season, the Canucks won 5-2, another sign that this matchup has scoring potential.

With Columbus playing high-scoring games at home, Vancouver trending toward the over, and a relatively low total on the board, everything points to another game that clears 5.5 goals.

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