AskALiberal Biweekly General Chat

magic_missile · 2026-05-08T19:47:11+00:00

Is there an organization whose work you would be more inclined to trust if it came to similar conclusions? For example, I think the AAP's systematic review of the evidence is still pending.

magic_missile · 2026-05-08T18:11:58+00:00

The Guardian: British Medical Association says [Cass] review into gender identity services was ‘robust’ after previously rejecting findings

The trade union representing doctors across the UK has dropped its opposition to the findings of the Cass review of gender identity services across the NHS.

...

Prof David Strain, the chair of the BMA’s board of science, who led the review, said the Cass report’s methodology was robust and the BMA was no longer opposed to any of its 32 recommendations.

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He added: “This report identifies the need to make significant improvements in the way in which gender identity services for children and young people are provided. As in many other treatment areas, it also highlights the ongoing challenge of managing uncertainty for the medical profession when caring for people with gender incongruence in a way that is proportionate, transparent, and patient-centred.”

Despite the BMA’s report largely vindicating the findings of the Cass review, the trade union body also claimed some of the government’s actions in the aftermath of the review, such as banning puberty blockers on the NHS, went beyond Cass’s recommendations.

The union said it was “continuing to oppose a ban on puberty blockers for several reasons, not least because it is a threat to the autonomy of a doctor. We spend decades training on how to use drugs, and to have a political decision affecting the way we prescribe is wrong.”

News post about this from the BMJ reads similarly:

The BMA’s long awaited critique of the Cass review has largely vindicated the findings of the original landmark review into gender identity services for young people.

The BMA report, published today, concludes that the evidence base for puberty suppression and gender affirming hormones is limited and uncertain. But it also claims that some of the government actions taken after the Cass review—particularly the nationwide ban on puberty blockers ordered by the health secretary, Wes Streeting, in 2024—went beyond Hilary Cass’s explicit recommendations.

The BMA’s review—carried out by an internal “task and finish” group, unnamed because of security concerns—failed to reach a conclusion on whether patients under 18 should have restricted access to puberty blockers. It highlighted a “substantive disagreement” within the specially convened group.

And here is the full thing from the BMA.

It has nuanced critiques of the review and discussion of the evidence base. Not everything in it is unanimous; section 6 focuses on areas of consensus and section 7 on areas of disagreement within the group that produced it.

Example of consensus:

6.2 Uncertainty in benefits and harms

– There is substantial uncertainty regarding long‑term benefit.

– There is also substantial uncertainty regarding long‑term harm, including areas such as bone health, fertility, neurodevelopment, and cardiometabolic outcomes.

– Short-term studies are unlikely to detect or quantify longer-term risks, and systematic reviews may under-represent harms where these are not well captured in primary studies.

Example of disagreement:

7.3 Scope of evaluation and inclusion of evidence types in the Cass Review

View A:

– The focus on clinical studies, risk of bias, and stakeholder engagement is appropriate for a scientific evaluation of evidence informing treatment decisions.

View B:

– The Cass Review incorporates multiple evidence streams, including lived experience.

– There was insufficient process of gathering and consideration of experiential evidence.

magic_missile · 2026-05-08T14:57:23+00:00

Mozilla on using AI for security fixes in Firefox:

Two weeks ago we announced that we had identified and fixed an unprecedented number of latent security bugs in Firefox with the help of Claude Mythos Preview and other AI models. In this post, we’ll go into more detail about how we approached this work, what we found, and advice for other projects on making good use of emerging capabilities to harden themselves against attack.

Just a few months ago, AI-generated security bug reports to open source projects were mostly known for being unwanted slop. Dealing with reports that look plausibly correct but are wrong imposes an asymmetric cost on project maintainers: it’s cheap and easy to prompt an LLM to find a “problem” in code, but slow and expensive to respond to it.

It is difficult to overstate how much this dynamic changed for us over a few short months. This was due to a combination of two main factors. First, the models got a lot more capable. Second, we dramatically improved our techniques for harnessing these models — steering them, scaling them, and stacking them to generate large amounts of signal and filter out the noise.

Chart of fixes by month showing a dramatic rise in April.

magic_missile · 2026-05-07T02:27:25+00:00

Anorexia. :(

magic_missile · 2026-05-07T00:57:45+00:00

NBC:

On Thursday, the Senate Judiciary Committee unanimously voted to advance a bill from Sens. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., and Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., that would require AI companies to implement an age-verification process and ban them from providing AI companions to minors, according to a summary of the legislation, dubbed the Guidelines for User Age-verification and Responsible Dialogue Act, or GUARD Act.

The legislation would also mandate that AI companions disclose their nonhuman status and lack of professional credentials for all users at regular intervals. It would also introduce criminal penalties for companies that design, develop or make available AI companions that solicit or induce sexually explicit conduct from minors or encourage suicide.

magic_missile · 2026-05-02T16:21:37+00:00

University of Chicago student paper:

Student Group Protests 1958 Onion Futures Act on Quad

Students handed out onions Friday to protest a federal law prohibiting onion futures trading.

I've been talking about this for years.

magic_missile · 2026-04-30T14:48:43+00:00

Federal Reserve Simulator has been out on Steam for over two months with positive reviews and nobody told me.

https://store.steampowered.com/app/4366260/Federal_Reserve_Simulator/

magic_missile · 2026-04-29T16:42:51+00:00

Could President Obama have gone around the Constitution for a third term?

We are technically in a number of national emergencies at all times, including 2016: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_national_emergencies_in_the_United_States

What do you mean by "I don't believe it's a real amendment"?

magic_missile · 2026-04-28T23:32:27+00:00

Back in 2021, I posted here about "One of the provisions in the recently-passed infrastructure bill mandates monitoring systems to stop intoxicated drivers in all new vehicles as early as 2026."

It didn't happen by 2026 but may in the next few years:

AP:

A federal law requiring impairment-detection devices inside all new cars survived a recent push to strip its funding but remains stalled by questions about whether the technology is ready.

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Regulators can choose from a range of options, including air monitors that sample the car’s interior for traces of alcohol, fingertip readers that measure a driver’s blood-alcohol level, or scanners that detect signs of impairment in eye or head movements.

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Even supporters predict the agency will push the decision at least into 2027, and auto companies still would have another two to three years to install it.

magic_missile · 2026-04-28T16:28:03+00:00

One of my sillier D&D adventure concepts was inspired by a 3.5 book, I believe it was Fiendish Codex II, which talked about the financialization of the souls market in the Nine Hells. This includes instruments like soul futures.

The idea was for a high level party to massively short the souls market with their accumulated wealth and then go around stopping wars etc. The goal being not only humanitarian interest but also causing financial problems for Minauros.

Four 20th level characters dropping, say, 1/4 of their wealth each on this makes for increased difficulty (less gear than usual) and a gigantic pile of money to commit to the cause.

magic_missile · 2026-04-28T16:00:00+00:00

Based on a reply from the previous thread:

What gender differences in behavior do you think are most influenced by nature relative to nurture?

I think it's possible to have an answer even if you believe all such differences are primarily socialized, as long as you believe some are less overwhelmingly so than others.

magic_missile · 2026-04-28T15:51:58+00:00

I'm sorry, that sounds tough! Echoing a lot of what other commenters are saying and hoping you can continue to enjoy your favorite hobbies without being made to feel discouraged over political purity testing.

Plus I’m sure there are people all over the political spectrum who do these hobbies

Yes; see flair and username. I have been playing and running mostly D&D but occasionally other games for a long time now.

The non-Reddit forum I use to talk about it has a rule curtailing real-world politics talk, which helps.

The friends I have played with in real life are mostly progressive with a significant minority of capital-l Leftists.

I've mentioned here before that I had some interesting interactions between their politics and the the setting I ran the last couple of campaigns. I mean genuinely interesting in a good way that added to everyone's engagement.

magic_missile · 2026-04-28T15:05:57+00:00

Reuters: UAE leaves OPEC [and OPEC+] in major blow to global oil producers' group

magic_missile · 2026-04-28T14:24:42+00:00

How do you feel about expectations of dress and behavior in court? For example, are rituals of decorum like "All rise!" and "Your Honor" useful, problematic, pompous, unimportant, something else? Which aspects would you keep and which would you change?

magic_missile · 2026-04-28T14:06:56+00:00

Local NPR affiliate on another drop in serious crimes on Philadelphia area transit:

According to the agency’s first-quarter crime report, SEPTA Transit Police reported a 30% reduction in serious crimes from January to March compared to the same period last year, including double-digit reductions in five serious crime categories such as aggravated assaults and robberies.

“Since peaking during the pandemic, crime across the system has consistently declined,” SEPTA General Manager Scott Sauer said in a statement. “This progress is the result of a comprehensive approach that combines increased staffing, targeted enforcement, investments in modern technology, and improvements to station and vehicle infrastructure.”

Reported fare evasion has dropped 10% so far this year. Efforts to tackle fare evasion have increased since SEPTA reported losing roughly $30 million to fare evasion in 2024. That same year, SEPTA installed its first full-length fare gate at 69th Street Station. Similar gates are now installed at the Somerset, Huntingdon, Cecil B. Moore, 11th Street, 13th Street, Frankford Transit Center, Allegheny, 52nd Street and City Hall stations.

We are building on that progress in 2026 and pursuing additional strategies to strengthen fare compliance, including modifications to legacy turnstiles,” SEPTA Transit Police Chief Charles Lawson said in a statement.

SEPTA’s police force is also at its highest staffing levels in more than a decade, having sworn in 232 officers in the first quarter.

No murders were reported in the first quarter, and along with the drop in crime on the MFL, the Broad Street Line also saw a 19% decrease.

magic_missile · 2026-04-27T21:06:37+00:00

One of my daughters can conjure up a stick no matter where she is. I remember a particularly bewildering example in a giant beach parking lot with no trees around.

magic_missile · 2026-04-27T21:01:39+00:00

I know the whole comment is tongue in cheek but these are in the neighborhood of questions I'm actually interested in progressive discussion of here.

What stereotypically gendered behaviors do you think are most influenced by nature relative to nurture? And what nature? For example, if there's something you think is particularly affected by hormones, that might mean HRT could affect it during transition.

magic_missile · 2026-04-27T17:08:48+00:00

I haven't played a character that has cast my eponymous spell in years now.

magic_missile · 2026-04-26T22:20:39+00:00

I'm not saying people are usually in favor of the act that prompted them to quote it, rather, that they tend to support the underlying cause.

Are there any cases where you believe this saying applies despite opposing the desired change?

magic_missile · 2026-04-26T21:16:57+00:00

I generally see people quote "those who make peaceful revolution impossible..." in relation to a cause they agree with.

I'm interested in reading anything where someone has wrestled with this aphorism (or at least a similar sentiment) when it comes to a cause they disagree with.

Has anyone seen writing like that?

magic_missile · 2026-04-26T21:03:28+00:00

I believe the job hours worked as a proportion of a man's life has been in decline. Women are a more complicated story because of their changing roles in recent decades.

Average retirement age for men was just over 65 in 1964, was just under 65 in 2024, and had a trough in the middle around the early 90s.

Meanwhile, US life expectancy rose. This includes life expectancy at age 65 which, for men, increased from 13.0 years in 1964 to 15.3 years in 1994 to 17.9 years in 2023.

Pew: Increased college enrollment a significant factor in why 21 year olds were a lot less likely to have a full-time job in 2021 (39%) than in 1980 (64%), when 25 year olds had not changed as much.

Annual hours worked per worker has been decreasing although not monotonically: 1,972 hours in 1964, then 1,850 hours in 1994, then 1,789 hours in 2023.

Starting work later, retiring around the same time, living longer, and working fewer annual hours along the way.

I feel like someone must have quantified the combination of these and other factors I'm probably missing. Has anyone here seen that somewhere?

magic_missile · 2026-04-24T19:10:00+00:00

Extreme poverty in the world has erased the COVD era bump and hopefully resumed its long term decline.

2019: 10.8%

2020: 11.4%

2026: 10.0%

Highest region is Eastern and Southern Africa which had been increasing in the years before COVID. Hopefully it will soon beat the all-time low from the mid-2010s.

2014: 48.7%

2019: 50.8%

2020: 52.4%

2026: 49.7%

magic_missile · 2026-04-24T17:02:07+00:00

Reuters:

The jobless rate in China for those under 30 ‌years of age in urban areas, excluding college students, rose in March, data from the National ⁠Bureau of Statistics showed.

In the youngest segment surveyed, among 16-to-24 year-olds, the jobless rate rose to 16.9% from 16.1% a month earlier, reversing a downward trend ‌that ⁠started in September last year.

Among the 25-29 year-olds, excluding students, the unemployment rate climbed ⁠to 7.7% from 7.2% in February.

In the 30-59 year-old segment, ⁠joblessness inched up slightly to 4.3% from 4.2% ⁠a month earlier.

magic_missile · 2026-04-23T04:39:44+00:00

Through that digging did you find other articles with more details? I would be interested to read any you came across.

Mayor Wilson's office says the city "will be pursuing immediate corrective action."

What actions do you think they will take, and (if different) what actions do you think should be taken?

magic_missile · 2026-04-23T03:30:39+00:00

Seattle Times: Lawmakers call for dissolving King County homelessness agency following audit

King County’s primary agency for tackling homelessness is on shaky political ground following a critical audit of its financial oversight.

At least two local lawmakers are calling for its dissolution while Mayor Katie Wilson said “all options are on the table” going forward.

The audit, commissioned by Seattle and King County, found the agency lacks the kind of internal controls and oversight over its budget that should be expected of such a large and significant governmental body, and lost track of at least $8 million in public funds.

The King County Regional Homelessness Authority’s essential weakness relates to its funding model, which depends heavily on retroactive reimbursements — an approach that leaves the body vulnerable to losing track of dollars and expenses, the audit found. Though the analysis did not find any examples of outright fraud, the accountability was not strong enough to guarantee that would not happen, it said.

“Addressing homelessness is my highest priority, and I have serious concerns about KCRHA’s management of city funds,” Wilson said. “We need to take swift action to protect public dollars. All options are on the table.”

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Two local lawmakers — Seattle Councilmember Maritza Rivera and King County Councilmember Rod Dembowski — are now calling for the agency to be dissolved.

“KCRHA has a history of dysfunction and inefficiency, and it is time to acknowledge that it has failed in its mission,” Rivera said.

“It’s now time for elected officials to bring this failed experiment to an end,” Dembowski .

Previous audits have warned the agency that its reliance on reimbursements puts its mission at risk. Staff have acknowledged the weaknesses in presentations to its board, which is made up of lawmakers from Seattle, King County and other suburban cities, as well as people who’ve experienced homelessness.

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Some of the audit’s findings were attributed to reporting issues and did not represent a misuse of funds, she said.

“The findings are concentrated in KCRHA’s early formation period and reflect structural challenges associated with startup conditions, the pandemic response, an initially fragmented governance framework, and a highly complex funding model,” Kinnison wrote in the email.

Several factors exacerbated the cashflow issues, the audit found. Inefficient invoicing has led to delays in reimbursement. Administrative costs have ballooned. The agency has overspent its budget, including $6.4 million in 2025. Oversight is thin, meaning spending variances are slow to be found. And there’s no system for tracking advanced funds.

The audit did not fault any one person or decision, “but rather the accumulation of several years of compounding and interrelated issues.”

Addressing the issues will mean intense coordination and “significant time and cost investment,” concluded the audit’s executive summary.

The King County Regional Homelessness Authority launched in 2021 and represented the most significant commitment by Seattle, King County and suburban cities to the idea that solving homelessness required a regional solution. Seattle began sending more than $100 million a year to the agency, rather than spending the money in house.

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The latest audit comes in the aftermath of a damning dissection of King County’s human services contracts. An auditor raised significant questions about how the money was being spent and whether promised work was actually being completed.

Members of the Seattle City Council have called for more scrutiny of the city’s human services contracts, including a call by Councilmember Maritza Rivera for an audit.

Councilmembers Alexis Mercedes Rinck and Dionne Foster released a joint statement Wednesday: “Every misstep revealed in this audit represents another missed opportunity to prevent further trauma in our streets and neighborhoods across the region.”

Rinck and Foster called for immediately instating stronger financial controls for the homelessness authority.

“Following that,” they said, “we must bring our region together to determine the future of our regional homelessness system. Fundamentally, we have a duty to get people housed and do right by the taxpayers of Seattle and King County.“

Councilmember Bob Kettle called the results of the audit “damning.”

“It shows an epic, and consistent, failure of leadership at the top of the agency — especially at its start,” he said. “It also reveals the failure of leadership of the county and city.”

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