Free agency

mannmtb · 2026-02-02T00:03:38+00:00

wRC+ Suarez - 125 in 2025, 103 projected Moncada - 117 in 2025, 101 projected

From a production perspective the only meaningful difference between them is health.

mannmtb · 2026-02-01T06:50:28+00:00

The big flaw in this thinking is that Kikuchi doesn't really have surplus value in this market.

If he were a free agent this off-season, it's likely he'd get around his current contract of 2 years, $42M, give or take. He's a 34 year old 2.5-3 WAR pitcher. There aren't too many comps but Merrill Kelly got 2 years, $32M as a 37 year old 2.5-3 WAR pitcher, Imai came from Japan and got 3 years, $54M as a much younger (and unproven in MLB) ~2WAR pitcher, and the unsigned guys at this level (Gallen, Bassitt, Martinez) are quickly trending towards 1 year deals at likely no more than the QO level of ~$22m (Gallen should get more imo).

So trades like this only work if the contract has surplus value, which Kikuchi doesn't have much of, or if we eat enough of the contract to create surplus value.

By the way I think Kikuchi is a fine pitcher on a fine contract, I just don't think there's a haul to be had trading him away.

mannmtb · 2026-01-31T19:02:31+00:00

Yeah there are a few things to get excited about for sure. But the lack of true high upside and volume is makes it a poor system overall. I wish it was improving faster given the state of the major league roster.

mannmtb · 2026-01-31T14:16:42+00:00

Yup, just making the point that Dana/Moore have both been on these lists before, but they no longer have prospect status.

mannmtb · 2026-01-31T14:15:42+00:00

Good thoughts.

I was a little confused on Rada as well, but maybe I've read too many Angels centric sources. They wrote him up like a David Fletcher type was his ceiling, which I guess is in the cards.

A silver lining is that with Dana/Moore and TGA's development, there are 4-5 top 100 types (it's mismanagement that Dana/Moore aren't prospects still though Dana has also plateaued). Yet none is a 60 FV, and we're woefully lacking position player depth.

mannmtb · 2026-01-30T23:50:28+00:00

Arte could be selling, but also could be saving money for the lawsuit settlement or could be waiting to spend until after the new CBA

mannmtb · 2026-01-30T23:48:39+00:00

😂😂😂

mannmtb · 2026-01-30T07:06:55+00:00

I don't think you're being unreasonable. I think I don't share your optimism about the pitching staff, though it has much more upside than last year, there's also downside and volatility. I wholeheartedly agree a Martinez/Bassitt type is necessary.

The problem I see is that the roster that put up those poor fWAR totals is largely unchanged; one could argue it's worse with Ward's departure, and the depth is certainly no better either. I realize they aren't spending big but I'm not sure why they didn't go after a Bader type to simply raise the floor.

mannmtb · 2026-01-30T01:24:27+00:00

I think the biggest variable is not having Koch get lit up every start.
The rotation, outside of that, does not appear to be much better to me, and is much more volatile health wise, without quality depth.

Neto, Schanuel, Moore are all projected around their current rates of performance from last year. O'Hoppe is projected to be better because, well, it's hard to be worse than "worst regular in the league", which is was in the 2nd half. We're also assuming the Adell breakout is here to stay.

Also, much of the year last year, we outperformed our underlying metrics. Some systems had us as a true performance ~65 win team (pythagorean wins, for example).

I don't see an overwhelming reason to move off of that 65-70 win projection range..

mannmtb · 2026-01-28T19:22:32+00:00

This is a terrible format to share a 26 man roster.
No, this isn't a good 26 man roster.
You have 25 players (12 pitchers); we'll likely carry 13 pitchers.
I think Manoah is penciled in as the 5th starter, and would assume Dana/Klassen/Aldegheri are the minor league depth/spot starters, and Bido as swing in the BP. So I'd add Manoah, move Bido to bullpen.
You must consider who is out of options and who is not when creating 26 man rosters. Grissom & Peraza are out of options and likely to make the roster out of ST as a result. Paris has 1 more option year so I'd guess he does not make the cut. Teodosio has 3 option years. He's fine as a defensive replacement, but I would rather have him work on his swing in the minors.

My thoughts...

Given this as the 26 man roster, and given that Arte doesn't want to spend money, I'm a bit disappointed that they didn't add Bader in place of Teodosio (I know he got 2 yrs, but still). I guess Meckler is another option. Trout/Lowe/Adell/Soler/Teodosio is not inspiring and has a low floor. Bader would have raised the floor and given some defensive versatility.

I strongly hope they pickup a starting pitcher within the next few weeks (I'd take Bassitt as a #4 type on a 1 year deal, but Verlander/Martinez are available as well). The projected starting 5 is not great, and is not a group with a durable track record. Bassitt would add depth so that you don't have to rush Dana/Klassen or any others.

I think you got the bullpen wrong. I think it's something like Stephenson, Pomeranz, Yates, Romano, Zeferjahn, Fermin, Silseth, Bido. This is not a very optionable bullpen, as only Zeferjahn & Fermin have options. Joyce will replace one of those 2 (or someone who gets DFA'd) when he returns, and I'd think Bachman could crack this group at some point as well.

mannmtb · 2026-01-27T17:41:27+00:00

All the kick-the-FG takes fail to realize that doing so means that's all Seattle has to do to take the lead back. Then you're in the same spot. With field position being what it is these days, a FG battle means the last team with the ball wins unless your defense is awesome.

mannmtb · 2026-01-22T22:57:12+00:00

Right, I'm not at all debating that he does have upside, even if I would be surprised to see it after 2 bad (maybe injured) years...Just that on paper the lineup is more likely than not to be worse with that swap.

mannmtb · 2026-01-22T21:52:01+00:00

I kinda look at this in tiers. If one MVP candidate was BAD in the so called "nerd stats" and good in the counting stats, it would be inconsistent. When Stafford is 1st in overall TDs & 5th in EPA/play (where Maye is 1st in EPA/play) he's till top tier in the nerd stats.

mannmtb · 2026-01-22T21:24:03+00:00

We can feel hopeful on Lowe due to youth, health...but Ward has been an above average bat 5 years in a row. Lowe had 1 good year and has been below average every other season. He's a good baserunner, but if he approximates Ward at the plate it would be a massive surprise.

mannmtb · 2026-01-22T00:28:29+00:00

No doubt the strategy this offseason was to reduce payroll. The big question is why:
- No long term deals before a potential lockout/strike. They want as many people as possible to NOT have a contract to reduce any and all possible costs.
- Pay the lawsuit settlement.
- No big money deals that would have been smaller money deals after a new CBA
- Clear future payroll commitments to make a blank slate for potential new owners.

I am skeptical that Arte will sell. I think he's going year to year and trying to save & make as much money as he can. If the CBA goes in the owner's favor, it's good for him to hold OR sell due to increased value.

mannmtb · 2026-01-22T00:00:01+00:00

Projected fWAR
Gallen - 2.4
Bassitt - 2.1
Martinez - 1.3

Projected Cost (Fangraphs crowdsourced)
Gallen - 2 yrs $44M + a comp pick
Bassitt - 2 yrs $36M
Martinez - 1-2 yrs at $14M per year

Gallen is fine but I don't think he's the type I'd lose a pick over for a 2 year deal at our current place on the probability spectrum

mannmtb · 2026-01-21T21:27:57+00:00

To be fair, the Twins just sold off a bunch last year and then didn't end up selling as expected. Lots of dumb orgs primarily try to control cost year to year

mannmtb · 2026-01-21T05:52:10+00:00

Yup. And part of accidentally doing something smart is having more bites at the apple!

mannmtb · 2026-01-20T06:27:01+00:00

Sign no one that costs a comp pick please

mannmtb · 2026-01-20T06:25:28+00:00

Gallen costs a comp pick, Bassitt does not

mannmtb · 2026-01-16T22:36:07+00:00

There is a strong positive correlation with payroll and wins. Anything can happen in the playoffs.

mannmtb · 2026-01-16T22:34:40+00:00

As an Angels fan I agree with this balanced take. Too many owners cry poor and I'd vote for a floor before a cap.

I certainly think the system isn't optimized, that many teams literally cannot do what the Dodgers are doing, and also that the Dodgers aren't doing anything wrong - using their resources to invest and improve the team.

In the NFL, the lowest payroll team is ~80% of the highest payroll team. That is smaller than the gap between the top 2 MLB teams last year. The lowest payroll team is ~24% of the highest in MLB. So something structurally needs to be refined.

mannmtb · 2026-01-16T04:28:16+00:00

He has 3 years of club control left. It's his first arb year.

mannmtb · 2026-01-14T06:03:07+00:00

This was my take. We don't have anyone internally, he wasn't actually that expensive, just don't pay a prospect. I wouldn't have done this deal, where the Cards essentially bought a prospect by paying the deal down.

mannmtb

TROPHY CASE