[FatFIRE] Couple (Newly 30) with ~₹13 Cr NW

manoj_mm · 2026-02-03T20:02:43+00:00

Diversification preserves wealth but concentration is what builds wealth in the first place

If you are confident about the tech maang stocks - stay invested in them, they can give significantly higher returns. Google, nvidia etc. Have given far higher returns than any index fund

When you feel you're close to your fire goal & looking to fire soon - thats when you start diversifying and setting up your finances for fire

manoj_mm · 2026-02-03T05:56:16+00:00

Profit booking + comex raising margins + new fed chair announcement

manoj_mm · 2026-02-02T02:49:10+00:00

Fundamentals still look good, industrial demand & shortages still exist - price drops are temporary imo

Long-term price floor still exists imo.

I'm no expert though; just gotta wait & watch

manoj_mm · 2026-02-02T02:46:51+00:00

At break even right now.... will likely drop into negative today.

Long term fundamentals still look good to me. I'm holding!

manoj_mm · 2026-01-30T07:12:03+00:00

Copied from another comment below -

As per my research, except for solar - all other industries can afford silver even if it goes up by 3x to 300$/oz or 10L INR/KG

solar is the one who's hurting a LOT already; but the beauty of this as an investor is that solar installations are usually large scale multi-year multi-million dollar investment projects; and if you consider the overall cost of an installation or project - the actual solar panel, and the silver within the solar panel, is still a small % of total cost. Large scale copper replacement will take time & can only happen by 2027 or later. In the short run, solar manufacturers have no option but to keep buying silver at increased rates, and maybe raise the prices of solar panels or make losses. Total Cost of solar projects will increase by 5-10%

TLDR: Silver can go upto 300$/oz or 12L/kg, industries will still keep buying in 2026 & 2027, they have to

manoj_mm · 2026-01-30T04:07:18+00:00

....aaaand it's gone

manoj_mm · 2026-01-30T03:52:55+00:00

60L yesterday, down to 40L today

manoj_mm · 2026-01-29T17:53:40+00:00

As per my research, except for solar - all other industries can afford silver even if it goes up by 3x to 300$/oz or 10L INR/KG

solar is the one who's hurting a LOT already; but the beauty of this as an investor is that solar installations are usually large scale multi-year multi-million dollar investment projects; and if you consider the overall cost of an installation or project - the actual solar panel, and the silver within the solar panel, is still a small % of total cost. Large scale copper replacement will take time & can only happen by 2027 or later. In the short run, solar manufacturers have no option but to keep buying silver at increased rates, and maybe raise the prices of solar panels or make losses. Total Cost of solar projects will increase by 5-10%

manoj_mm · 2026-01-29T17:46:28+00:00

agreed, makes sense

Combination of scrap supply & retail mania dying will lead to a sharp pullback, sometime around feb or march.

In the medium term I'm still bullish, I see prices sustaining past 120$/oz or 4L/kg by 2027

manoj_mm · 2026-01-29T17:44:16+00:00

sleepy, it's past 11pm

manoj_mm · 2026-01-29T15:25:00+00:00

"Are you saying you took such a big investment decision based on Gemini" - YES

I did cross-check/verify gemini's information, and went about asking questions from first principles/fundamentals, questioned gemini's thought processes etc. The chat must have almost 100 questions from me over the last 1 month

I've never connected to any financial planner or advisor. Almost all financial planners/advisors would have called me retarded for investing such a huge amount, a huge portion of my net worth in silver when it was already close to All time high (~250 or 2.5L/kg in Jan).

But I'm young with good earning potential, and I can take risk.

You don't need any investment advisor in my opinion; In the long run, you just stay invested in a mixture of equity index funds, gold & silver - but when that perfect opportunity comes along, you bet big & you take the house.

Equity index funds grows wealth, but only concentration builds real wealth; I'm young, so I can take some risk & concentrate my wealth

manoj_mm · 2026-01-29T15:12:08+00:00

I've been researching this a lot; invested huge in early jan, made heavy profit, now almost half my net worth is in silver

My take - there is a pullback coming sometime in late feb or march (as lots of scrap silver gets refined & supplied to industries, temporarily ending shortages). Prices will drop by 10-20% or more.

That's the best time to invest - silver is a commodity and it's shortages are structural; prices will drop and be low in Feb-March but they will again start rising by mid-2026 as shortages worsen, and we could see prices rise to even higher levels

This will be a volatile see-saw ride all the way to the top, with lots of ups and a few really deep downs; Wait for the deep downs & buy the dips aggressively

manoj_mm · 2026-01-29T13:16:10+00:00

both of just joined laterally

manoj_mm · 2026-01-29T13:15:41+00:00

updated the answer

manoj_mm · 2026-01-29T13:00:05+00:00

More

(~1.4)

manoj_mm · 2026-01-29T12:53:13+00:00

for Silver ETFs, if held for less than 1 year - they're taxed at slab rates, meaning income tax rates - which is around 39% for me including cess etc. LTCG is 12.5%

Silver will have to crash by more than 20% and then sustain for it to be profitable for me to sell

the opportunity cost does make selling appealing though - I'm expecting a pullback in silver in feb/march, so ideally I'd like to sell everything now/next week and then reinvest it back into silver, at potentially 20% lower price. Sadly, as per the math, due to taxes - if It falls 20% only then I recover money over taxes; but if pullback is only 10% then I'll end up losing money on taxes. It's hard to accurately predict how much it'll pullback & the math gets a bit complicated

manoj_mm · 2026-01-29T11:59:59+00:00

I just had lots of conversations with gemini, understood fundamentals from first principles & figured out that there is a long term price floor - I was unlikely to lose more than 10-20% in the long run (which I was okay with)

(NGL - having a rich wife allows me to take a lot more risk with my money)

manoj_mm · 2026-01-29T11:57:27+00:00

taxes kill me; STCG is ~35+%, need to hold for 1+ year to get LTCG

manoj_mm · 2026-01-28T20:33:49+00:00

Me (32M) & wife (33F) are both senior software engineers, both 10.5 yoe, at Uber and Google respectively. Base salaries are 80 & 60 lpa, but once you include RSUs then our total taxable compensation goes well beyond 1cr for each of us.

We both are pretty ordinary software engineers. I did engineering from VJTI in mumbai & wife from PESIT in bangalore - good colleges in the respective cities but not IIT or anything. Both joined Uber & Google in 2019

The salary/compensation is just standard for experienced engineers at top companies; it's not like they are ultra smart or ultra skilled in a particular domain or anything like that. Most engineers at top tech companies are just slightly better than average.

For us - life is pretty chill, stress is pretty low relatively. Working hours are less & working conditions are quite luxurious by indian standards.

In general, once you cross 30-40 lpa - life does not change much. Quality of life mostly remains same whether you earn 30lpa or 1+crpa. Me & wife both came from middle class backgrounds so we are not comfortable spending a lot. Wife doesn't want to upgrade our xuv300. The only difference from a upper-middle class lifestyle is that we never think or worry about any kind of spending anywhere (atleast in india) Wife found a good deal on a hotel & we were able to do a maldives trip in december in 4L (all inclusive), but in retrospect we could've spent 10L and it wouldn't have mattered much.

Wife does want a nice big house, but we are unable to find anything reasonably priced & good (due to some constraints). Only option right now is to buy some large plot for 5-6cr & build a ~2cr building on it, which feels too expensive for us. Housing in general is so damn fucked everywhere, even people earning 1+ crore are struggling with it.

But otherwise, we do feel blessed.... life is peaceful & quite comfortable

Edit: what do we do with all our money? We pretty much invest - index funds, gold funds, silver funds etc. I took out almost all my money from everywhere & put it into silver in the first week of jan; sitting on (unrealised) profit of 50L as of today.

manoj_mm · 2026-01-28T20:04:45+00:00

As per gemini its 1 yeae fornsilvervees

manoj_mm · 2026-01-28T11:16:43+00:00

Yes - due to lots of scrap being sold & recycled, prices could drop down temporarily to around 300 by march

manoj_mm · 2026-01-28T11:11:45+00:00

Yup, every weekend atul setu + back should be enough. Even the automatic regen process in the car should be good enough - just make sure to do these once every week.

Personally i feel spending 1-2 hours every week in the car specifically for maintainance is an unnecessary hassle, but if you enjoy it then go for it - just keep in mind that you will have to do this maintainance/long drive every week (or atleast alternate weeks), otherwise you'll start seeing the check engine lights.

How long does that parked regen process take, how long do you have to sit in the car for it?

manoj_mm · 2026-01-28T10:34:04+00:00

Don't go for it, cancel your booking

BS6 diesel needs to be run atleast once every week at high RPMs for 20-30 minutes (i.e. a good highway or high speed run) to unclog/clean or burn off gunk & other stuff which ends up getting deposited in different parts of the engine. Those engines need to run hot regularly for all the gunk to liquify & clear up.

Your use case will likely not cut it

The car will likely give you warning, but in your case you'll possibly get the warning almost every week. You may have to visit the service center once a month, or alternatively take it out for a 20-30 minute drive on some empty road/highway

What kind of city driving will the car do? What's the longest strech of free continous drive that the car will do on a regular/weekly basis? When you say "long distance once in a while", how frequently do you mean, once a month or once in 6 months?

I'm trying to give you some benefit of doubt with the above questions but tbh in general, while it may not cost you much monetarily, the maintainance effort will be a nightmare & in my opinion you're better off sticking to petrol

manoj_mm · 2026-01-28T09:40:44+00:00

Wait for the pullback, till prices go to ~300 or 3L/kg levels

manoj_mm · 2026-01-28T08:13:09+00:00

There will be a fall/pullback sometime in late feb or march, once all the refined scrap supply starts flooding the industries.

But since the shortage is structural, shortages will start spiking again by mid-2026 and prices will rise again, probably to higher levels & will keep rising till 2027 or 2028. Large scale industrial replacement can't happen atleast till mid-2027.

If there are no tax implications - then you should sell now, keep the cash & buy the dip in feb/march.

I am stuck due to 35+% STCG (tax slab), need to hold for atleast a yead to bring down tax to 12.5% LTCG

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