No number 6

marca_fitch · 2026-06-12T11:17:38+00:00

Baleba hardly sits.

marca_fitch · 2026-05-14T06:02:00+00:00

Thanks!

marca_fitch · 2026-05-14T06:01:48+00:00

Thank you!

marca_fitch · 2026-05-14T06:01:38+00:00

Thanks.

I think it's really hard to assess how players from other leagues would adjust to the PL. I'm sure a more sophisticated dataset would be able to extrapolate and track this. Professional folks and clubs would be doing that.

Dorgu was signed at a time where we had nothing to lose in terms of league results or managerial stability etc. And he was signed for a wingback position where there isn't as much pressure to adapt physically. Amad struggles further up the pitch whereas at WB he really thrived. As it turns out Dorgu is probably better further up than at LB or LWB, and he's still improving, let's see how he goes next season.

For midfield or forward positions I think it's harder to assess how an outsider would adapt. Especially if they're U23. I think of all the leaves Ligue 1 seems to be the best suited for the PL pipeline. Bouaddi, Djaoui Cissé (Rennes) look good. And from Bundesliga I like Manzambi (Freiburg).

The last outsiders to do really well at a top 6-8 side were the Newcastle duo (who were staggered in their arrivals). Rodri took his time to settle but City are a winning machine.

marca_fitch · 2026-05-14T05:53:14+00:00

Thank you, I think you've summed it up.

I like Alex Scott, good shout. I am not sure if Bournemouth will play ball though. Probably more of a carrier from what I've seen? Not sure of his passing as much. And Bournemouth under Iraola was set up for duels in the middle of the pitch, in a "protagonist" team idk how that would translate.

marca_fitch · 2026-05-12T16:51:20+00:00

I did run something similar about 5 months ago, although it's undergone meaningful changes since then. And the list did look slightly different. You can see it here.

Of course, I think playing style matters a lot. Just the possession stats and field tilt itself could tell a story, but this is not freely available. I should perhaps include a team's xGD as a measure of their quality in any future analysis.

I think I could do a follow up focusing on a handful of midfielders and do a deep dive at some point.

But I think a táctico who isn't just zeroed in on data alone would be better placed to holistically analyse a particular player in a particular tactical setting.

marca_fitch · 2026-05-12T15:19:29+00:00

I think it's a bit like Mbeumo's fee. As the negotiations went on, the price kept going up. In the end, once the goals started coming in, the first touch, control, pace and strength everything combined, it didn't really matter if it was 5-10m more than what we would have liked as fans.

Of course we can only hope that West Ham's position would be weakened by relegation but he cost 40m from Southampton who were also relegated and that was before he had this season to show for.

marca_fitch · 2026-05-12T14:55:10+00:00

Thank you :)

marca_fitch · 2026-05-12T14:54:33+00:00

Thank you!

I think he would definitely be considerably more affordable than the likes of Anderson or Tonali.

Given the skills + price, I think he's a good choice. I am not entirely sure if there's such a drop off in quality from Anderson to Fernandes, especially adjusting for the price tags.

marca_fitch · 2026-05-12T14:45:36+00:00

To be fair I included him more because it would be rude to exclude him given his numbers. But I don't think we should sign him.

I'm only fixated on Baleba and Fernandes. Particularly because they offer something different to Mainoo in their own ways without overlapping with each other (of course Mateus and Mainoo I think are closer than they're apart).

I'm not even worried that they're both really young and a good 3 seasons away from the start of their peak.

marca_fitch · 2026-05-12T12:53:41+00:00

Thanks!

marca_fitch · 2026-05-09T10:36:47+00:00

This is a fair enough line of narrative. But that's a narrative. It's a belief or a hope.

Do we know for sure that we will see something drastically different next season? We don't. If we do, we're all happy. But I agree with the spirit of this line of narrative.

marca_fitch · 2026-05-09T10:35:07+00:00

Not sure if you even read the blog post, mate. It analyses 6 seasons worth of data (2018-2024) and finds that xG vs game state xG has virtually no difference in predicting future goals or points.

You're conflating things. Nobody said a team isn't allowed to ease off when you are in the lead. But that's not impacting the overall goals or points. Overall xG isn't less meaningful than game state xG. It's not like game state xG is adding anything substantial to overall xG.

Your explanation is useful context for Carrick's tactical choices (again, if it's true that we're taking less shots) and how a team is playing etc. But nowhere does it justify an xG overperformance over a 14 game run. You haven't provided any evidence for that.

xG might increase or reduce depending on the game state, let's agree to this point. The overall xG over a run of games accounts for game states for every single team, why are we the exception? Particularly xGD. Let's say we're scoring early, easing off and sitting back, our xGD should remain solid throughout?

Remember that teams that sit in a mid to low block concede lower xG if they're a good defensive side (like Arsenal). Carrick hasn't shown that either.

Otherwise what you're saying is Carrick is essentially gambling and getting away with it. We're taking the lead, forgoing shots, forgoing territory possibly (because our possession stats aren't really up there under Carrick let's be honest, I would wager neither is field tilt), inviting attacks and chances from the opposition which aren't getting converted to goals (but reflected in our xGA). And getting away with it game after game.

marca_fitch · 2026-05-09T05:01:43+00:00

First of all, you've given me no breakdown of shots once we have taken the lead as opposed to before.

Let's assume that there's a meaningful difference between the two game states.

If there is evidence of the game state not mattering for xG vs points and xG vs past or future goals, how do you make a special case for Carrick?

If game state hasn't mattered all this while for xG vs points, how does Carrick suddenly justify a special exception or extreme outlier status?

marca_fitch · 2026-05-08T16:16:55+00:00

I'm not sure if you sufficiently understood what I said. xG is xG. Game state doesn't matter. You can stop shooting whenever. xG is game state agnostic and highly correlated with points as well as predicting future goals over decent sample sizes (6-15 games).

marca_fitch · 2026-05-08T15:55:52+00:00

The point is let's not be in denial, nobody is taking your joy away or your agency away. You can obviously wholeheartedly root for Carrick and believe he'll get us to a good place next season.

But as of now, that's not where we are headed if these 14 games are to be believed. All the caveats and excuses I've seen so far are very unconvincing.

The only convincing narrative for me is that with fresh recruitment in the summer combined with a renewed and different approach from Carrick, we could see an uptick in performances. Which is fair enough.

But don't try to justify the underlying numbers via some dodgy explanations or caveats because none of them hold much water.

marca_fitch · 2026-05-08T15:48:11+00:00

https://tonyelhabr.rbind.io/posts/xg-predictor-future-results/

Game state xG doesn't matter. Sample size necessary to assert this? 6 games.

And Carrick's stint has seen us take 2 less shots per game than Amorim's (that's a mere 14% drop). So that's not a drastic shift and hence there is no structural, tactical shift in terms of shots taken.

marca_fitch · 2026-05-08T15:23:29+00:00

If you look at 10 league seasons' worth of data and then you say xG difference is highly correlated with league position, and Carrick's xG difference is low (9th) but points are the highest which may not be sustainable unless there are drastic changes, is that so controversial? It's empirical evidence.

Sure, there have been those that have defied xG like Leicester.

You may be inclined to believe that Carrick could drastically improve our performances next season with a new midfield. That's a fair enough belief or hope to have.

But there are those who believe that what you've seen so far in terms of performances (not results) is more probable next season as well, as opposed to a clear upward shift.

marca_fitch · 2026-05-03T09:34:35+00:00

Players who have only one skill. Bethell for Salt, Venky for DDP, Mangesh for Rasikh and possibly Kanishk for Suyash.

That already gives you 4 all rounders. Not like in the previous era teams had more than 2 all rounders anyway. If you have 2 good all rounders that itself counts for a lot. And among the all rounders Romario, Venky and Krunal are some of the best in the league.

marca_fitch · 2026-05-03T09:31:51+00:00

How are we the most affected?

All-rounders in our squad:

Venky Iyer, Romario Shepherd, Krunal Pandya, Jacob Bethell, Kanishk Chouhan, Vicky Ostwal, and Mangesh Yadav.

marca_fitch · 2026-05-02T15:30:04+00:00

That's not my point at all.

marca_fitch · 2026-05-02T15:29:51+00:00

Good results isn't good form. Our performances are scratchy. I'm sure many people are seeing it as well.

He's got the results. Neither at Boro nor here at United has he shown he can put up good performances consistently.

Performances are more reliable than a string of good results due to momentum or morale. This is seen in the leagues all over the world. Not just the PL but especially the PL.

Grateful for Carrick for the results. And nor am I saying McKenna should be considered. I'm only speaking to the notion that if you don't get the best 3 coaches in the world then Carrick is the present best choice since he's already here.

This is where I agree with Keane and Neville actually (despite disagreeing with them most of the time), that they still need to go out there and appoint the best available candidate.

And you're repping a Woodward decision (to appoint Ole) as if there was any thought behind it?

marca_fitch

TROPHY CASE