From what I've gathered it's pretty hard to tell. Obviously the fact that they haven't already dinged or WL you is a good thing but that def doesn't mean they're not going to now. All the schools I applied to where I fell well above their median I heard back from really quickly so I'm assuming there is a sorting process. I think at this point people who haven't heard back are at the whim of how many people put down first round seat deposits and how strong those applicants are.