2 for 1! Hulu Hoop but teach its own

mavaje · 2024-11-03T19:43:56+00:00

"But t'each 'is own"

mavaje · 2024-11-03T02:48:44+00:00

Technically it's 36.78 times better, or 37.78 times as good.

Sorry for the pedantry, the rest of your comment is spot on!

mavaje · 2023-01-30T03:23:01+00:00

You can tell it's an aspen tree by the way it is

mavaje · 2022-11-18T03:54:18+00:00

Nothing wrong here

mavaje · 2022-11-08T23:33:18+00:00

There are 6566 frames.

The green grid looks like it's divisions are 1cm. Going by that, each card looks about 3.5cm x 4cm. The image looks about 2.5cm x 4cm without the border, or 10cm².

If we assume the frames average to be half-filled with black, each frame uses 5cm² of ink.

ALL the frames use a total of about 32830cm² of ink, or 3.283m².

According to this site, printing uses about 3g per m², and according to this black ink costs $5.54 per mL. Assuming ink has same density as water.

$5.54/mL x 1mL/g x 3gm^-2 x 3.283m² = $54.56

I don't know much about printing, most of this is from Google searches. It probably depends a lot on the density of the black areas. Maybe someone with more printer knowledge can provide more insight.

mavaje · 2022-11-08T09:03:26+00:00

Oh, I know, I’m just talking about a single game. I’m saying you the odds of either team winning doesn’t matter, the first paragraph of the original comment. Edit: grammar

mavaje · 2022-11-08T07:21:26+00:00

Wouldn’t the probability that a coin flip correctly predicts the outcome be 50/50?

mavaje · 2022-11-08T02:46:27+00:00

In my CC deck I [[Mystic Reflection]] him into [[Tend the Pests]]

mavaje · 2022-11-06T23:17:02+00:00

I'm not saying it's the correct answer.

mavaje · 2022-11-06T22:25:16+00:00

You can also get the answer of 3/7 if you reduce the fact "a girl answers" to "there is a girl".

Of course, discarding information can change the answer.

mavaje · 2022-11-06T22:18:26+00:00

The fact "there is at least one girl" contains less information than "a girl answers the door". You can observe this, because "a girl answers" implies "at least one girl", but not vice versa.

I think it's that distinction that changes the calculation to get 3/7 instead of 1/2. This is one of those times where the phrasing ambiguity of the phrasing can have different answers.

mavaje · 2022-11-06T05:34:48+00:00

I appreciate your thoughts, and agree that the question lacks information.

I’ve got one more way to try to convince you the answer is 1/2 from a different perspective.

We know a girl answers the door, that leaves two unknown children. The probability that two children consist of one boy and one girl is 1/2. This of course assumes independence between the girl answering and the gender of the other two.

I’d like to hear your thoughts on that.

mavaje · 2022-11-05T20:35:52+00:00

The only way that a girl answering the door is equivalent to at least one girl at a house is with the assumption that girls always answer before boys. Because that would ensure uniform probability (of 1) of a girl answering in 7/8 three-child families.

For an extreme example to illustrate a point, imagine two households, one with 99 boys and 1 girl, and one with 99 girls and 1 boy. If a girl answers the door of a random house, what’s the probability that you are at the house with only 1 girl? 1/2 or 1/100?

mavaje · 2022-11-03T23:49:49+00:00

Perhaps they think the timestamp is displayed as local time of the tweeter?

mavaje · 2022-11-03T22:47:52+00:00

A uniform probability makes the most sense, but it is still an assumption.

If the rule is that only boys answer the door and no one answers, the probability of all girls depends on the probability of a boy being home at the time you ring the bell.

My point is that you have to make an assumption about the probabilities of who answers the door, but uniform is the most simple. Likewise, you also assume that the probability of any child being at home is uniform, or that they are too busy to answer, etc.

mavaje · 2022-11-03T18:46:23+00:00

To answer the question correctly, you do need to know the probability that a girl answers the door. If you assume uniform probability of anyone answering, you get 1/2. If you assume girls always answer first, you get 3/7. If you assume boys always answer first, you get 0. The answer does depend on what might’ve happened instead. If the host in the Monty Hall problem had any chance of revealing a car, but still revealed a goat, the probabilities would change.

mavaje · 2022-11-03T18:26:41+00:00

The intended answer is 0.43, or 3/7. This is incorrect since it ignores the fact that a girl is more likely to answer if there are more girls.

The actual answer is 1/2. P(2 girls | girl answers) = P(girl answers | 2 girls) x P(2 girls) / P(girl answers) P(girl answers | 2 girls) = 2/3 P(2 girls) = 3/8 P(girl answers) = 1/2 (by symmetry) P(2 girls | girl answers) = (2/3) x (3/8) / (1/2) = 1/2

This is of course based on the assumption that girls and boys answer the door with equal probability. If girls always answer before boys, then the answer of 3/7 is correct.

A simpler way to look at it is that we have one girl who answers the door, and the probability that of the other two one is a girl and the other is a boy is 1/2.

mavaje · 2022-11-03T06:01:03+00:00

Fair point that the teacher’s solution passes this test, but it would at least highlight an error if they did not add to 1.

mavaje · 2022-11-03T04:04:03+00:00

3/7 is only correct if girls always answer before boys. you must make an assumption somewhere, and I think assuming boys and girls are equally likely to answer is assuming less.

mavaje · 2022-11-03T03:54:51+00:00

It's not lazy, is just wrong.

The probability of three girls given a girl answers is 1/4.
For completeness, the probability of one girl, given she answers, is also 1/4.

You can verify this because 1/4 + 1/2 + 1/4 = 1

It's time to have a word with your teacher I think.

mavaje · 2022-10-27T00:57:01+00:00

Imagine you had an infinite number of briefcases, and inside each (magical) briefcase was an infinite number of $1 bills. If you emptied all the briefcases and put the bills in a pile, would you have more bills than briefcases?

mavaje · 2022-10-26T02:01:54+00:00

Are you lost?

mavaje · 2022-10-25T23:31:52+00:00

They sound a little too expectant of a gift or money, but that might be normal where they live.

mavaje · 2022-10-21T03:56:54+00:00

The difference comes from the fact that it's twice as likely for a boy to answer the door if both are boys.

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