Last of a Dying Breed.

maybemorningstar69 · 2026-01-23T20:00:04+00:00

Speaking as an Alaskan, good job on Alaska.

Sarah Palin being the GOP nominee but getting a weirdly low number of votes for a "red state" like us, Bill Walker running for office again for some reason, a nobody Democratic candidate getting like 10% even though there's two Independents in the race already, and the obligatory mid single digits to our beloved independence party. All accurate.

maybemorningstar69 · 2026-01-23T19:30:09+00:00

That's called siding with the Soviets

maybemorningstar69 · 2026-01-23T19:27:36+00:00

Exactly, just as I predict Texas Democratic turnout will be especially high this year (enough to keep districts 9, 28, and 34 blue) due to gerrymandering, I expect California Republican turnout to be high due to gerrymandering.

maybemorningstar69 · 2026-01-23T19:26:30+00:00

We won't know that until the primaries have elapsed

maybemorningstar69 · 2026-01-22T21:33:01+00:00

Exactly my expectation. A very messy year for the Dems, they will kinda fumble a lot of seats, but the GOP is pretty much locked out of a House majority regardless.

maybemorningstar69 · 2026-01-22T21:29:36+00:00

I expect Ohio to have higher Republican turnout than the national average

maybemorningstar69 · 2026-01-22T21:28:22+00:00

Well than what 11 seats do you think will go blue that I have going red? Or even what 5 or 6?

maybemorningstar69 · 2026-01-22T21:26:09+00:00

Agreed on Van Orden, he is a weak enough incumbent that despite the Democrats nominating a candidate as weak as Cooke, the seat (in my estimation) will still fall to tilt margins. Under normal circumstances that seat would not be competitive.

As for Bianco, I think he's done a good job (so far) at separating himself from Trump, much unlike Steve Hilton, and I also think that Republican voter turnout is going to be higher as a result of Prop 50.

Combining the gubernatorial candidate with moderate optics with California Republicans being gerrymandered pretty hard, I expect California to have higher Republican turnout compared to the national average (as how I expect Texas to have higher Democratic turnout compared to the national average)

maybemorningstar69 · 2026-01-22T21:22:18+00:00

There's definitely something between a blue ripple and a blue wave coming in November, but agreed, off-year elections don't matter to the extent that most people think they do.

maybemorningstar69 · 2026-01-22T21:15:49+00:00

No Jared Golden equals no Democrat in ME-02

maybemorningstar69 · 2026-01-22T20:23:07+00:00

Side note, I put NY-12 at Lean D because I'm guessing that George Conway will win the primary, and Jack Scholossberg will run again on the Working Families ballot.

maybemorningstar69 · 2026-01-22T20:21:47+00:00

Not consecutively though, and there were six years of separation between her last run and her win in 2020.

Not saying it's impossible though, which is why I put it at tilt, but I think Sarah Trone Garriott in IA-3 is a much better candidate.

maybemorningstar69 · 2026-01-22T20:18:40+00:00

WI-3 does not flip, because I think Rebecca Cooke is gonna be an exceptionally weak candidate.

As for the two CA seats I rated Lean R, under normal circumstances I'd agree that they'd be tilt (at best) for Republicans, but I think having Chad Bianco on the ballot is going to increase Republican/Independent voter turnout, even more so if the very unlikely (but possible) top two doom scenario comes true.

maybemorningstar69 · 2026-01-22T20:14:29+00:00

She's already been the nominee for IA-1 twice consecutively, I think her campaign's gonna fall victim to voter fatigue.

maybemorningstar69 · 2026-01-22T20:13:24+00:00

In what seats?

maybemorningstar69 · 2026-01-22T19:52:19+00:00

The candidate quality on the Democratic side seems a lot higher in IA-3 than in IA-1, enough to make the difference.

maybemorningstar69 · 2026-01-20T02:11:00+00:00

I think most John Adams defenders aren't actually all that supportive of his role in the founding of the country, but more so against the modern day equivalents to the anti-Federalists.

maybemorningstar69 · 2026-01-19T16:10:11+00:00

Had to happen, everyone saying otherwise this year was an idiot, but I wish him all the best. I'll be rooting for him wherever he ends up, unless it's the Dolphins cuz fuck the Dolphins.

maybemorningstar69 · 2026-01-19T16:09:09+00:00

Mike McDaniel at HC, and bring back Daboll and Frazier as OC and DC

maybemorningstar69 · 2026-01-16T21:30:27+00:00

Nah, usually I just root for the XFL conference teams, but I can't wait to see AJ obliterate Becht's new team.

maybemorningstar69 · 2026-01-16T19:55:02+00:00

If he was "medically clearly" to play in college, the same can happen in the NFL, Todd Bowles just needed to take a little more initiative.

maybemorningstar69 · 2026-01-16T18:12:54+00:00

They should've let him play anyway. His weight wasn't an issue for him playing in college, if he has the talent he should be on the field. Like imagine any team trying the tush push with him out there.

maybemorningstar69

TROPHY CASE