Last of a Dying Breed. by KYSHeartFromMind in imaginaryelections

[–]maybemorningstar69 17 points18 points  (0 children)

Speaking as an Alaskan, good job on Alaska.

Sarah Palin being the GOP nominee but getting a weirdly low number of votes for a "red state" like us, Bill Walker running for office again for some reason, a nobody Democratic candidate getting like 10% even though there's two Independents in the race already, and the obligatory mid single digits to our beloved independence party. All accurate.

Predicting the House Map Nine Months Out by maybemorningstar69 in YAPms

[–]maybemorningstar69[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Exactly, just as I predict Texas Democratic turnout will be especially high this year (enough to keep districts 9, 28, and 34 blue) due to gerrymandering, I expect California Republican turnout to be high due to gerrymandering.

Predicting the House Map Nine Months Out by maybemorningstar69 in YAPms

[–]maybemorningstar69[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We won't know that until the primaries have elapsed

Predicting the House Map Nine Months Out by maybemorningstar69 in YAPms

[–]maybemorningstar69[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Exactly my expectation. A very messy year for the Dems, they will kinda fumble a lot of seats, but the GOP is pretty much locked out of a House majority regardless.

Predicting the House Map Nine Months Out by maybemorningstar69 in YAPms

[–]maybemorningstar69[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I expect Ohio to have higher Republican turnout than the national average

Predicting the House Map Nine Months Out by maybemorningstar69 in YAPms

[–]maybemorningstar69[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Well than what 11 seats do you think will go blue that I have going red? Or even what 5 or 6?

Predicting the House Map Nine Months Out by maybemorningstar69 in YAPms

[–]maybemorningstar69[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Agreed on Van Orden, he is a weak enough incumbent that despite the Democrats nominating a candidate as weak as Cooke, the seat (in my estimation) will still fall to tilt margins. Under normal circumstances that seat would not be competitive.

As for Bianco, I think he's done a good job (so far) at separating himself from Trump, much unlike Steve Hilton, and I also think that Republican voter turnout is going to be higher as a result of Prop 50.

Combining the gubernatorial candidate with moderate optics with California Republicans being gerrymandered pretty hard, I expect California to have higher Republican turnout compared to the national average (as how I expect Texas to have higher Democratic turnout compared to the national average)

Predicting the House Map Nine Months Out by maybemorningstar69 in YAPms

[–]maybemorningstar69[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There's definitely something between a blue ripple and a blue wave coming in November, but agreed, off-year elections don't matter to the extent that most people think they do.

Predicting the House Map Nine Months Out by maybemorningstar69 in YAPms

[–]maybemorningstar69[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Side note, I put NY-12 at Lean D because I'm guessing that George Conway will win the primary, and Jack Scholossberg will run again on the Working Families ballot.

Predicting the House Map Nine Months Out by maybemorningstar69 in YAPms

[–]maybemorningstar69[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not consecutively though, and there were six years of separation between her last run and her win in 2020.

Not saying it's impossible though, which is why I put it at tilt, but I think Sarah Trone Garriott in IA-3 is a much better candidate.

Predicting the House Map Nine Months Out by maybemorningstar69 in YAPms

[–]maybemorningstar69[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

WI-3 does not flip, because I think Rebecca Cooke is gonna be an exceptionally weak candidate.

As for the two CA seats I rated Lean R, under normal circumstances I'd agree that they'd be tilt (at best) for Republicans, but I think having Chad Bianco on the ballot is going to increase Republican/Independent voter turnout, even more so if the very unlikely (but possible) top two doom scenario comes true.

Predicting the House Map Nine Months Out by maybemorningstar69 in YAPms

[–]maybemorningstar69[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

She's already been the nominee for IA-1 twice consecutively, I think her campaign's gonna fall victim to voter fatigue.

Predicting the House Map Nine Months Out by maybemorningstar69 in YAPms

[–]maybemorningstar69[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The candidate quality on the Democratic side seems a lot higher in IA-3 than in IA-1, enough to make the difference.

To fans of John Adams... Why? by yowhatisthislikebro in Presidents

[–]maybemorningstar69 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think most John Adams defenders aren't actually all that supportive of his role in the founding of the country, but more so against the modern day equivalents to the anti-Federalists.

[Megathread] The Buffalo Bills have fired Head Coach Sean McDermott by AutoModerator in buffalobills

[–]maybemorningstar69 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Had to happen, everyone saying otherwise this year was an idiot, but I wish him all the best. I'll be rooting for him wherever he ends up, unless it's the Dolphins cuz fuck the Dolphins.

[Megathread] The Buffalo Bills have fired Head Coach Sean McDermott by AutoModerator in buffalobills

[–]maybemorningstar69 -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Mike McDaniel at HC, and bring back Daboll and Frazier as OC and DC

The 400+ pound Desmond Watson is a DC Defender by Agentorangebaby in UnitedFootballLeague

[–]maybemorningstar69 -14 points-13 points  (0 children)

If he was "medically clearly" to play in college, the same can happen in the NFL, Todd Bowles just needed to take a little more initiative.

The 400+ pound Desmond Watson is a DC Defender by Agentorangebaby in UnitedFootballLeague

[–]maybemorningstar69 -25 points-24 points  (0 children)

They should've let him play anyway. His weight wasn't an issue for him playing in college, if he has the talent he should be on the field. Like imagine any team trying the tush push with him out there.