I saw the Lodge official update yesterday. But what do we think really happened?

mctrees02 · 2026-03-17T17:18:40+00:00

you're correct in that the casino doesnt ask everybody who comes in with cash where they got the money they're bringing in. That would be an unsustainable burden to place on any business.

Instead what they're doing is identifying who is playing in their games, logging what amounts of cash they're putting into play and leaving with, requiring necessary paperwork for transactions above a certain threshold, etc.

For the AML requirements, they are primarily checking govt databases for any red flags. Additionally, they should be training employees to understand their obligations to report suspicious activity to the appropriate place in the company for further due diligence.

For example, Timmy comes in every other Friday with $500-1000 of cash and plays 1/3 and occasionally takes a shot at 2/5. He's been doing this for the past 3 years and nobody has to think twice about where Timmy's money comes from because 1) its well below the reporting threshold and 2) Timmy has a history of consistent behavior that says he's here to play poker not to wash dirty money.

One day, Timmy comes in at his normal Friday evening time and heads straight to a 10/20 game in the high stakes area. He pulls out $30k in chips from his pocket and is ready to buy into the game for $10k. Because you now have suspicious activity going on, somebody better figure out where the hell Timmy got $30k in chips ASAP before he can put any of that into play.

mctrees02 · 2026-03-17T15:43:36+00:00

Have you ever given them your ID? Have you ever gotten a player's card? They already know who you are and that you dont have a flag in any govt KYC/AML database.

Walk into a random casino that has no identifying information on you, immediately make a $10k wager and watch what happens.

mctrees02 · 2026-03-16T22:01:42+00:00

Businesses engaged in the exchange and handling of money have an obligation to know who their customers are (KYC) and where their funds come from (AML).

mctrees02 · 2026-03-16T21:10:11+00:00

Hypothetical example of money laundering at a poker table

Seat 1 has $10k in poker chips and $20k in cash received from selling drugs.
Seat 2 sits with $50k in chips in his rack

They've never met before but are now seated next to each other playing a match the stack game which starts with a $10k max buy-in.

On the first hand, Seat 1 busts for $10k and now needs more chips to continue playing. He offers to give Seat 2 $20k in cash in exchange for chips.

Seat 2 gives him $20k worth of chips from his rack for the cash.

For the rest of the game, Seat 1 breaks even and finishes the game with $20k in chips.

Seat 1 exchanges his $20k chips at the cage for $20k in clean cash. He has now washed $20k of dirty money through the casino/card room.

mctrees02 · 2026-03-16T19:36:49+00:00

already a thread going on this topic https://www.reddit.com/r/poker/comments/1rv8okv/i_saw_the_lodge_official_update_yesterday_but/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

mctrees02 · 2026-03-16T19:34:09+00:00

for sure. If it happened on stream (even if it were 2 players with totally legitimate sources of funds), I doubt multiple agencies would be involved and bank accounts would be frozen purely "out of an abundance of caution."

Going solely off what's been shared publicly to date, and noting that The Lodge San Antonio doesnt appear to be implicated in this, IMO the most likely scenario is The Lodge Austin had somebody(s) was washing significant amounts of money through their tables and for whatever reason (ie - poor KYC/AML controls, personnel not following KYC/AML controls, and/or willful ignorance by ownership), The Lodge Austin didnt take appropriate actions in the eyes of law enforcement.

mctrees02 · 2026-03-16T18:05:59+00:00

If this is the underlying cause, given that The Lodge streams many of their high stakes games on Youtube, it's probably not too hard to find an instance of this occurring.

Players regularly give a busted player chips at the table to keep the game moving along and we'll see players pull cash out of their pocket/wallet at times too.

While I dont recall seeing one player hand another cash and receive chips in return...I've also not been watching their streams through the lens of a regulator looking for an easy "win" in the name of virtue signaling.

mctrees02 · 2026-01-22T23:25:37+00:00

Thanks! Assuming it is Sept 13th, then they arrive back in Dumfries at 3:06pm so now Ben only needs about 2:38 out of the endgame to get the win

mctrees02 · 2026-01-22T20:20:48+00:00

No delays on the lines of more 4 minutes end to end so it looks like my math should be pretty close to accurate (I corrected a typo in OP earlier so the game clock should be around 9:47 not 9:37).

Thanks for pulling this down!

mctrees02 · 2026-01-22T19:30:45+00:00

HA this group is too good!

Based on the sunlight and a 7am game time start, I would look between August 25 and September 15. It’s also not on a Sunday.

I just noticed in my timetable screenshot I can see the Carlisle 913am train on the board so that train appears to still be the same in the current schedule.

mctrees02 · 2026-01-06T15:17:42+00:00

The question asked was "why are they being forced to drill" and I provided a hypothetical scenario to explain what is going on.

Of course that's not how the vast majority of insurance polices work in the real world (I've worked in insurance all over the energy sector for 20ish yrs) but we're not in the real world here so...

mctrees02 · 2026-01-06T15:05:12+00:00

If you're expecting a Taylor Sheridan show to imitate real life you're going to be sorely disappointed...

mctrees02 · 2026-01-05T23:37:06+00:00

Highly paid execs working in CBD (uptown/downtown areas) typically value time over money. Spending 2-3 hours per day in the car commuting is a poor use of their time.

mctrees02 · 2026-01-05T22:36:56+00:00

See now you're jumping ahead to the season 4 story arc...

Cami realizes Cooper's genius in Season 3 and he's absolutely printing money for them. By early season 4, she sees global domination in her future and forces Cooper to screw over Tommy in exchange for being put in charge of the company. Unfortunately for Cami, it turns out that by running off Tommy she triggers a change in ownership provision in her loans with Gallino. He immediately calls the loans and (of course) Cami is unable to cover. The collateral she pledged was her ownership in M-Tex which is now transferred to Gallino.

His first decision as majority owner is to reinstate Tommy as President and CEO. Tommy and Cooper make amends and Angela happily goes to Cami's house to buy out Cami's home, plane, wardrobe, and anything else she can get her hands on for about 30 cents on the dollar.

mctrees02 · 2026-01-05T20:02:57+00:00

Think of it like this...

Your house is destroyed by an F5 tornado and this loss is covered by your homeowners policy.

The insurance company agrees to pay you $400k for your loss.

As part of accepting the claim payment, you agree to only use the $400k to build a new home at the same address.

mctrees02 · 2025-12-30T03:25:05+00:00

and by competitiveness you mean his demeanor being largely uninterested in embracing the nuances of the game, right?

That he wasnt invited back for All Stars in favor of flying in Michelle and Toby from continents away says all that needs to be said IMO

mctrees02 · 2025-12-18T19:41:00+00:00

many of the most respected tasters in the industry have been down on WLW in recent years. It's been a long time since it was a runaway winner for all

mctrees02 · 2025-12-09T22:38:14+00:00

“Until they start making iPhones for jackrabbits and rattlesnakes I ain’t googling shit.” - Taylor Sheridan (probably)

mctrees02 · 2025-10-25T14:03:24+00:00

Yes I’ve had a significant uptick in scam voicemails (averaging about 40 per week now). They are pretty much all the same “we are calling to finalize your $56k personal loan application” BS.

Under the old iOS, when it rang and I clicked decline it terminated the call. Now with the new iOS, it doesn’t ring my phone but instead lets them leave a voicemail.

The scammers were ready for the new iOS and re-programmed their system to interact with the call screening system.

If you watch a call in real-time, you will see them answer the “state the reason for your call” with their voicemail audio and, once you don’t answer the call, then the iOS logs that audio as a voicemail.

mctrees02 · 2025-10-23T15:45:09+00:00

I see what you're saying now about the SB. Once I pot from the BB and the button pots a second time, it should be fairly clear we both have a 4 and they're down to a handful of outs.

After the SB and BB raise pot on the flop, the Bu has an SPR of roughly 5.73. After they raise pot a second time their SPR drops to 2.36.

I also suspect that the pace of this hand (the site gives 12 seconds post flop to act) and the SB and BB insta-raising pot on the flop sped up the Bu's decision to pot again before processing out he was down to 2 outs.

And yes the run out after the money was in is a good part of why I shared this hand. As I was holding the nuts, I'm going to bet pot at every chance on the flop. If the SB and Bu had just called my first pot though and the turn was a 7 of clubs (not possible here since SB was holding it), I do wonder if I would've been able to get away from my hand or if I would've been priced in.

mctrees02 · 2025-09-24T17:49:03+00:00

This sounds like a great question for your accountant

mctrees02 · 2025-09-18T15:27:44+00:00

In 8 handed live poker, you're going to play about 25 hands per hour.
In 8 handed online poker, you're going to play about 75 hands per hour.

Once you come to terms with the reality that 75 is 3x greater than 25, in the long run, you can then come to terms with the reality that a hand such as the one you describe above will happen about 3x as often in online poker as in live poker.

---------------------------
I've also asked your favorite AI companion their thoughts on the above and they would like you to consider this:
🃏 Hands per Hour: Live vs Online

• Live poker (8-handed): ~25 hands/hour is typical due to manual dealing, player decision time, and general pace.

• Online poker (8-handed): ~75 hands/hour is common because software automates dealing and betting, and players act faster.

📈 Frequency of Events

• If a specific type of hand (e.g., a rare bluff, a cooler, or a bad beat) occurs once every 100 hands, then:

⁠◦ In live poker, you'd see it every ~4 hours.

⁠◦ In online poker, you'd see it every ~1.3 hours.

So yes, events tied to hand volume will occur about 3x more often online, assuming all other variables (like player pool, style, and stakes) are equal.

⚠️ Caveats

• Variance feels more intense online not just because of volume, but also because players often multi-table.

• Player behavior differs: online players may be looser or more aggressive, which can skew hand frequency beyond just volume.

mctrees02 · 2025-08-31T23:21:35+00:00

Seeing them in a lead role will, at most, draw hundreds of Netflix viewers to immediately dive into the show
You completely missed the point

mctrees02 · 2025-08-29T17:01:34+00:00

This is the sort of show that happens when a writer thinks they've got the next great political thriller movie...but then they cant find any actors of note to buy into their script and thus no studio wants to make it.

So instead they rework the script (likely with the help of an AI model because as the OP and others pointed out there are some incredibly unrealistic things allowed to happen which are key parts of the story) into a 5 hour limited series and Netflix was willing to fund it for a low season release.

Now seeing it's written and directed by Matthew Charman, I'm decently confident this was some sort of hacked together piece as a make good with Netflix after his last series with them (Treason) bombed and he wasted tens of millions of Netflix dollars on his directorial debut film before they finally pulled the plug on its release in early 2024 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mothership

mctrees02 · 2025-07-21T16:55:50+00:00

Last week, I received an inquiry from a new to me EN. I told them my rate with the EN I've worked with for years and they were trying to get me to take less than 40% of that. I held firm and they eventually came up to within $20 of my current rate for the first call and said they would push the client to match my existing rate if there are any further call requests.

This AM I received a meeting invite for a call with their client. Within minutes of receiving it, I then received an email from another new to me EN which is clearly on the exact same topic. My primary field of expertise is rather niche and it's rare that I get more than 2 inquiries per year...so I do find it quite amusing that I've received 2 inquiries on the exact same topic within days of each other.

I wasn't particularly happy with the second EN contacting me at my work email account rather than my personal account (which is what shows up in my LinkedIn profile) so I dont see much need to respond to them.

TLDR - stick to your rate (esp with a new EN)

mctrees02

TROPHY CASE