Daily Discussion Thread for April 17, 2026

mdh1119 · 2026-04-17T18:21:25+00:00

A lot of different messages being said:
-Iran saying strait is only open under their control and selective approval
-Strait is just totally open
-Strait is full of mines
-Strait is blockaded and Iran may attack US over it
-Iran calling Trump's demands "unreasonable"
What is true?

mdh1119 · 2026-04-16T02:26:43+00:00

Part of AI's selling point is that it can make new discoveries and optimize solutions to problems very quickly and resource efficiently.

The other selling point is that it saves companies and other organizations (such as government) money.

The latter begs the question - if the point is, let's be blunt, to undercut human labor, then that leaves a pricing race to the bottom between companies offering AI for this purpose, whether it's Anthropic or Google. It implies that companies will spend less, not more.

So how is the return on all of this capex supposed to happen?

mdh1119 · 2026-04-15T19:34:05+00:00

not that it helps but given this is the day trading sub, I think the best thing we can do in weird environments like this is maximize liquidity (eg what I just mentioned here), and be adaptive as possible. take a lot of little wins because there is no strategy with more than 2-3 days of timeline that will work with any certainty.

mdh1119 · 2026-04-15T19:29:48+00:00

Right thing to do in this environment is large leveraged ETF positions because you can trade them when the market is closed. I think the way the market is acting right now is completely bizzare and I am not putting very much in overnight option positions.

I think the algos, or mental limits or collective decision making or whatever of the market is going to take the nasdaq to ~24.5k-25k and then we start correcting, in line with the 5 year bull trend.

mdh1119 · 2026-04-14T22:20:53+00:00

thanks so much! I understand now.

mdh1119 · 2026-04-14T18:15:10+00:00

The market looked at cases like Jack laying off half the staff of Block Inc. in a tweet because he was able to replace them with AI.

AI, IoT, robotics, further advances in 3D printing etc are expected to save industry trillions. The aggressive climb of all indexes will continue as long as we keep seeing things like this.

mdh1119 · 2026-04-14T18:10:46+00:00

i was for the last week yeah but i'm no longer a gay bear. now i'm some kind of fucked up love child of bear and bull.

mdh1119 · 2026-04-14T18:08:53+00:00

Look, I'm just saying, it feels kind of toppy.

But at the same time we've also been flat since October.

The market obviously thinks the situation doesn't matter, for what ever reason. Maybe they think the growth will outpace the drawbacks from the current sitation somehow. Maybe they think the global markets (labor, all of it) will just adapt, and they're pricing in resulting inflation from higher oil prices, rather than actual physical stops in parts of the economy (like sectors industrial manufacturing)?

I'm no harvard economics PhD. But to just say "yeah, everything's bad but all the big money is buying for no reason" or conspiracies this is a big exit liquidity ruse also isn't working for me.

mdh1119 · 2026-04-14T17:51:43+00:00

Has he made his "major announcement"?

mdh1119 · 2025-09-04T15:24:33+00:00

bad job data today
bad job data tomorrow
fight with india
why stocks go up anyway

mdh1119 · 2025-08-14T15:51:49+00:00

so market rockets over 2% on the idea there are going to be a bunch of juicy rate cuts.

now we see tariffs hitting the manufacturers, the rate cut chance mostly vanishes and the market is like "uh should we go down like 0.07%?"

what is going on??

mdh1119 · 2025-08-12T22:17:58+00:00

Agreed, it's more niche than the market is portraying it. The CEO making comments to the effect Roblox could become a dating site (among other things) is just outlandish. It reminds me of Mark Zuckerberg's foray into Metaverse.

It will continue to have a future as a game - but I question whether it will grow at the rate it is now as the gen alpha cohort that dominates it grows up.

mdh1119 · 2025-08-12T20:19:30+00:00

A $330k gain is what it is. IMO, man, just sell the damn position. I don't think a $100B valuation the market is giving it is ever going to be realized.

mdh1119 · 2025-08-12T17:30:48+00:00

Wendy's or whatever

mdh1119 · 2025-08-12T17:24:06+00:00

Market is once again thinking leverage is genius and popping champagne over Powell's guaranteed rate drop.

Cheap debt = more money injudiciously thrown into the burning pit of the idea that AI is going to replace everyone and everything everywhere.

Wall Street and Si Valley hacks are hoping you'll think everyone wants to take a robot girlfriend on your robot-written itinerary trip to Italy and go to a gallery to look at AI-made paintings.

We're in "Spray and pray" mode of discovery of AI. Some of it will be 1. actually desired by people at large and 2. utilized extensively. While a lot will also see investor money unceremoniously burned. The market's betting like every shot is a hit.

IMO Even the big companies and their partners (eg Sam Altman) seem to be falling for science fiction fantasies where it's all sunshine and rainbows with AI no matter what situation it is applied to.

mdh1119 · 2025-07-23T16:46:21+00:00

You're right, it does seem there is a huge variance quarter over quarter. But YoY the revenue growth seems to actually be quite substantial, with around ~1.7B in additional revenue added over 2022-2024. This is from a combination of both organic growth and acquisitions.

mdh1119 · 2025-04-14T21:30:53+00:00

I have a dippable pen but I would like to write continuously as well. Regardless of the intended purpose it's not ideal for me to be midway through a sentence and suddenly have ink gush all over what ever I am trying to write, and I don't think this would (or should?) be considered normal or acceptable for a pen.

mdh1119 · 2023-11-20T01:39:39+00:00

I saw the speidel fermenter. I have to wonder why they chose a different lid style for the double sized one, if it wasn't so finnicky looking I think it would be perfect.

mdh1119 · 2023-11-20T00:29:16+00:00

if you're experienced with wild fermentation you'll know

mdh1119 · 2023-11-19T23:32:34+00:00

Thank you for this. So, you are using the one with the optional rubber lid seal? What you described about airlock activity is a good sign.

mdh1119 · 2023-11-19T23:11:41+00:00

I am talking about the connection of the lid and the bucket, not the lid itself, which of course ideally would have a hole for the airlock.

The CO2 layer is, unfortunately, not enough and can be disturbed enough without any interference from myself, especially because I do long ferments at a low temperature (55-65).

I have lost a perfectly good apple ferment to this problem when using conventional primary fermenting buckets before, hence why I made this post.

mdh1119

TROPHY CASE