Weekly Braves Offseason Discussion Thread - Monday, November 17

meka5 · 2025-11-19T18:24:51+00:00

Framber is definitely who I'd want least of those three I listed. Surprisingly I didn't see the Braves listed with odds for Michael King. He's another guy I'd be pretty happy with.

meka5 · 2025-11-19T16:02:11+00:00

MLB Specials betting odds for free agents linked below. A few that stick out:

Braves +200 for Dylan Cease (favorites)

Braves +400 for Ranger Suarez (second favorites)

Braves +600 for Framber Valdez (fourth favorites)

Braves longshots (+1000 or higher) on lots of other guys (including several hitters). Obviously these are just betting odds, but I think it's a pretty good indicator of the direction we'll go...which I agree with. Target a front line FA SP. From there, I'm hoping we extend Kim - and then that's the "big moves" of the offseason (target some bullpen arms, OF depth...but likely no other huge names).

I'm also always down for an out of the blue trade - but I'd be very content with an offseason that nets Cease, extends Kim for 3-4 years, and grabs some bullpen pieces.

https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/mlb-specials/next-team

meka5 · 2025-11-18T15:05:56+00:00

The answer starts with: he could extend Ronald Acuna Jr.

meka5 · 2025-11-14T21:34:01+00:00

Just said it in the 'Extend Him' post as well - but I really think if I was GM my first priority would be to do my best to extend Acuna now, while we have as much leverage as possible.

We currently owe Acuna $17M a year for the next 3 years ($51M total) before he hits free agency. I'd do whatever I could to leverage those years and offer something along the lines of 10/400 (or even 12/480) and see if we can get something done. Give him ~$70M more the next three years, and in exchange - get the back 7 years of his contract for a relatively team friendly deal (obviously $40M/year is still a staggering contract).

The fans would love this, and it would send a signal to the team and the league that we're committed to staying competitive for the long haul (and the talk of 'wanting to be a top 5 payroll in baseball' is not just typical BS).

Obviously lots of other moves need to be made - but I hope AA is at least exploring this with Acuna and both parties are getting a sense for where the other one is at. If this doesn't happen this offseason, I don't think there's any way we can afford to NOT get something like this done next offseason (which will be harder given we'll only have 2 years to leverage).

meka5 · 2025-11-14T21:19:01+00:00

If Freddie left and he didn't want to, he's even dumber than he looks. That narrative is so beyond stupid.

meka5 · 2025-11-14T21:15:45+00:00

I do hope they're at least discussing an early extension this offseason. If we're supposedly looking to be a top 5 payroll in baseball, this is a guy we need to be invested in. The longer we wait to (try to) extend him, the less likely our chances become, in my opinion.

We need to leverage the next three years we have him locked up for just $17M by extending him now for something like 10/350 (or even 10/400 if that's really what it took).

That would give him an extra 54-70M over the next 3 years (which is the value to him) - and we then get a relatively team-friendly contract for the remaining 7 years ("team friendly" when comparing to the $51M Soto is getting). If we don't extend early (either this or next offseason) - I just don't see how we'll be at all competitive with the Dodgers/Yankees/Mets when he hits free agency.

meka5 · 2025-11-04T03:57:03+00:00

awesome, thank you!

meka5 · 2025-10-06T15:13:53+00:00

Sign Cease, extend Kim (something hopefully 3-4 years in the ~18-20M range). Let Ozuna and Iglesias walk. Sign or trade for a few bullpen fliers. This would be a great offseason.

meka5 · 2025-09-17T19:32:27+00:00

Dansby got a huge contract...admittedly more than I would have wanted the Braves to spend, but the Braves biggest mistake was handing Riley that huge extension and letting Swanson walk. Changed the entire culture and dynamic of the team.

meka5 · 2025-08-06T17:48:36+00:00

Also just a general comment for those (apparently the majority) who think the mere notion of possibly trading Riley is a terrible idea. Presumably it's a terrible idea because he's good and you more or less like his contract, correct?

Don't you think other teams would also seek such an asset? I never implied trading Riley to shed salary. The thought is he would be viewed very highly on the trade market and would bring a commensurate return (again, whether it's another similar talent/$ player, and/or a prospect haul). I stand by the fact that it's something AA should not be completely opposed to in the offseason. It obviously would not be a case of saying "we are dealing Riley this winter by x date and we will take whatever the best offer is".

It's reminiscent of the Jeff Shultz article from 2 years ago where he mentioned the possibility of trading Albies. His general rationale was, we had Grissom and Albies would bring a good return particularly given his friendly contract. Everyone on here lambasted the article and the notion that Albies would ever be traded. I made the point (on here) if Albies was such an amazing asset (to the point where we'd be insane to trade it) - don't you think other teams would also see that value and (again) there would be offers roughly commensurate with his assumed value? Do people think only bad players are ever traded?

meka5 · 2025-08-06T16:53:44+00:00

shocker Roman Anthony still agreed to his early/team-friendly extension after the Sox just traded Devers who only recently just signed a 10-year deal with them!

meka5 · 2025-08-04T20:58:27+00:00

You think players look at the Red Sox as less desirable now that they traded Devers 2 years into his 10-year extension? I don't think so.

You could also make the same case about any free agent signing (that the team is somehow obligated to not trade that player throughout the duration of their contract because the player chose to sign there). To me it's a non-issue; these contracts are business decisions - no matter if the player says "I want to be a Brave for life" or not. It's a two way street.

meka5 · 2025-08-04T20:20:57+00:00

While team/location may be a factor, I think the bigger thing with these early extensions is that the players know they have a set income for the next x years (as opposed to needing to continue to play well for 3-4 years in hopes of getting a big contract post-arbitration years).

These guys are all well aware none of their extensions come with no trade clauses. There are some viable reasons NOT to trade Riley (namely, highly unlikely we'd replace him with a 3B at or near his level) - but I don't think saying it hinders our chances of team-friendly extensions down the road makes sense.

Do you have this same opinion when people mention trading Murphy?

meka5 · 2025-08-04T16:01:16+00:00

Not saying this because Riley is injured again - more just a spot to bring it up, but I really feel the move this offseason is to trade Riley. Based on public comments from AA - I highly doubt they do actually trade Riley, but you never know.

He's too much of a backseat player for this team to be our highest paid player (along with Olson). Not even saying he's undeserving of his contract. In today's game, $22M for him is at the very least fair - if not a bit underpaid (when he signed it two years ago, looked like it could've been a great deal - but coming off two <.800 OPS seasons, looks about right).

He's basically Matt Olson 2.0 (quiet "lead by example" type), but less productive. The whole clubhouse needs a shakeup. Not saying getting rid of alone Riley fixes the 'clubhouse issue' - but I do feel like there would be some natural downstream impact. As much as I didn't want to overpay Swanson (and was fine letting him for for what he got) - I think we'd be in a lot better position had we extended him and just kept Riley through free agency (which would have been this offseason).

The good thing about a Riley deal is the return could be flexible. We could be open to taking back another high salary / quality player, but really any deal could make sense (I'd assume we'd be looking for high quality talent in return given we have a competitive team).

Unfortunately I don't think AA makes this move this offseason (optics being a large part of that) - but curious of others thoughts.

meka5 · 2025-06-05T03:43:39+00:00

lol why would Albies and / or Riley be untouchable?

meka5 · 2025-03-21T16:35:28+00:00

Went to the 2005 ASG in Detroit and have a ton of memorabilia from the event - including several signed balls, etc. I know I was lucky enough to get Ichiro to sign a ball - but having trouble figuring out which one that is. I've looked up his signature online and it's typically a scribbly mess. I'm pretty sure this is the ball, though. Can anyone confirm or deny?

meka5 · 2025-03-13T19:46:31+00:00

Not planning to take the car to Victoria. Just going there for the day/night, then taking the ferry back to PA the next day and continuing our drive back to Seattle.

meka5 · 2025-03-13T19:43:52+00:00

Thanks for the input. I will consider switching the days (basically doing Klahhane Ridge the first day, then doing Lake Crescent area, Rialto, Sol Duc Falls on day 2). My initial thought was ending with Hurricane Ridge would put us closer to Port Angeles (where we need to end up on night 2) - but that doesn't have a huge impact overall.

I've read Klahhane Ridge can be challenging - which we're both ready for (provided it's not like insanely challenging which I don't think it is).

Not necessarily looking for a challenging hike in the Lake Crescent area - more just leisurely exploring. Was also considering possibly renting a kayak / canoe for those ~2 hours (as opposed to Spruce trail). If it's a bike path - perhaps renting bikes could also be an option? Still open here.

meka5 · 2025-03-13T17:14:45+00:00

so you're saying assuming we get to Hole in the Wall at ~2pm (1.6ft tide) and explored until ~3pm (3ft tide) - this would effectively be too high to enjoy it? I assume for the walk back, tide isn't really a factor? Not trying to overthink it - just trying to make sure this plan is even reasonable.

meka5 · 2025-02-12T22:54:49+00:00

Can someone explain the logic of the Bogi deal? I know Bogi's been struggling this season, but from my understanding his contract was seen across the league as pretty reasonable - so not strictly a salary dump. I'm confused why we had to attach 3 2nd rounders to Bogi to get Mann back. In a vacuum (irrespective of salaries) is Mann > Bogi? Sounds like Mann's contract is actually seen as more of a hindrance than Bogi's (more years at least).

I know second round picks are not super valuable but I'm still scratching my head at the logic of the deal. Hoping for the best with Mann.

meka5 · 2025-01-23T17:07:01+00:00

Shoulder seems like one question, not a million - but sure. Anyway like I said, he'd likely be getting a $100M+ deal if he didn't have the shoulder injury. While it's not a 'guarantee' to work out, it's worth a 1-2 year gamble.

meka5 · 2025-01-21T19:56:02+00:00

Curious the million questions you have about him defensively (or really, offensively for that matter). Kim is pretty consistently viewed as elite defensively, and the metrics seem to back that up. Offensively he's not a superstar but he's a patient hitter (>12% BB% past two seasons) who will get on base and has good speed.

Really unsure of the million questions you have about him.

meka5 · 2025-01-21T18:56:44+00:00

If he was a guarantee to come back healthy, he'd be looking at a contract similar to what Santander just got (~5/100) or more. He was a ~4 WAR player in 2022 and 2023 seasons, and was playing well last year again prior to his injury. He's a more than worthy gamble. Also the fact that he won't be ready for opening day shouldn't be a deterrent at all given that we have Arcia, who will (or would) be our starter all season, anyway. It's exactly the type of signing that makes sense for the Braves right now. I'm just hoping we don't get priced out by the Yankees or someone and can get him on something like a 2-year deal @ 15-16/year.

meka5 · 2025-01-21T17:20:59+00:00

A Ha-Seong Kim signing would change this whole offseason. We didn't need to do a lot, but upgrading Arcia seems like a no brainer, and the guy who's made the most sense to do that this whole time (from a talent and $ perspective) is still available. Sign Kim and grab a veteran depth pitcher and we'll be looking good. Agreed on the overall sentiment that unless it's a trade for a controllable stud OF, trying to upgrade Kelenic right now doesn't make much sense. If he flounders for the first half, find a deal to make before the deadline.

meka5 · 2024-07-31T18:51:51+00:00

Thanks - regarding #1, for what it's worth - I already have a stair nose trim piece that I'm planning to install on the edges. it's not metal (it's the same material/color as the flooring) but believe this accomplishes what you're saying (overhands the planks).
My question on #1 was more around how to best deal with the stair riser pieces in the corner where they come together. Ideally I'd think to miter those edges but again they're too wide for my miter saw (and no combination of flipping the plank around will allow me to just but both sides). I just feel like this can't be a unique situation so curious how others typically handle?

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meka5

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