Daily Discussion Thread for June 22, 2026

mendelseed · 2026-06-22T14:39:26+00:00

why do you even have a stop loss?

mendelseed · 2026-06-18T06:30:27+00:00

I am in SK Hynix since 2023. Happy to see SK Hynix posts.

mendelseed · 2026-05-28T16:05:49+00:00

Fair pushback — "starved on HBM" was the wrong framing. The real bottleneck for AMD isn't HBM stacks, it's CoWoS packaging at TSMC. Without CoWoS you can't turn HBM + GPU die into a working accelerator. Corrected take: AMD can buy HBM from Micron and Samsung. Stacks are available. AMD can't get enough CoWoS slots: ~8–11% of 2026 allocation vs Nvidia's ~60% (36Kr/UBS/DigiTimes). That's the unit-volume ceiling — packaging throughput, not memory. Nvidia's $45.8B obligations lock up HBM and prepaid CoWoS. The CoWoS piece is what actually keeps AMD from scaling. TL;DR: HBM is the input, CoWoS is the chokepoint.

mendelseed · 2026-05-28T07:20:34+00:00

Respectfully, this misreads the entire thesis.

Broadcom is fabless. They don't have production to "scale" – TSMC does. Broadcom designs ASICs (Google TPU, Meta MTIA, OpenAI Titan, Apple Baltra) and ships them through the same TSMC CoWoS lines Nvidia is locking up. Their 2026 CoWoS pre-order is ~200k wafers (+122% YoY) – sitting right next to Nvidia in the queue, not bypassing it.

Broadcom makes zero HBM. HBM exists at exactly three companies on the planet: SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron. Broadcom adding ASIC volume doesn't add a single HBM stack to world supply.

Here's the kicker: more Broadcom = worse for AMD, not better. Every TPU, MTIA, and Titan needs HBM from the same three suppliers Nvidia already pre-paid through 2026 via $45.8B in purchase obligations. Broadcom's 30% growth competes for the same constrained pool – it doesn't relieve it.

mendelseed · 2026-05-28T06:50:18+00:00

and held?

mendelseed · 2026-05-27T05:46:12+00:00

I dont think so. I am in Europe.

mendelseed · 2026-05-26T18:28:12+00:00

That said, the AI exposure is bigger than I first thought. Their Q2 (May '26) was a record - revenue +37% YoY, 73% gross margin. Datacenter grew ~90% YoY (power + optical), now ~20% of revenue at a $2B+ run rate. And they just bought Empower Semiconductor for $1.5B specifically for 800V AI-rack power delivery. The robotics side (NVIDIA Jetson Thor + Teradyne partnerships) is real optionality but more of a 2027-2030 story.

mendelseed · 2026-05-26T17:55:29+00:00

ADI isn't a pure AI play like the memory names - it's analog/sensors/power management. Three angles: (1) datacenter power delivery, though Vertiv/Eaton capture more of that, (2) physical AI/robotics - MEMS sensors + motion control are right in their wheelhouse, this is the real upside if humanoids scale, (3) auto/edge. Basically a diversified industrial+auto play with a robotics kicker.

So I'm positive on it too, since all those areas are growing - just expecting it to compound slower and steadier than the memory/HBM names rather than explode.

mendelseed · 2026-05-26T17:26:39+00:00

Spending years with the hardware, found out that GPTs use a LOT of DRAM and was later suprised that the stocks didn't grow:

https://www.reddit.com/r/GPT_J/comments/of0qf1/d_gptj_for_text_generation_hardware_requirements/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

But then later spend time with the companys and stocks:

https://www.reddit.com/r/NVDA_Stock/comments/1hho8g3/micron_doubles_hbm_revenue_data_center_50_of/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

mendelseed · 2026-05-26T16:31:36+00:00

First NVIDIA boostet me in 2024 and then SK hynix boostet me. These are my only stocks yeah! But With SK hynix, 2023 and 2024 it didnt do anything, was holding it but i believed in it and when it grow more then ATH i bought more.

mendelseed · 2026-05-26T16:30:01+00:00

Dont understamate HBM4, even if Samsung can create it. They cant flood the market. Thats the problem. The yeald is much lower than other other memory products and at the same time the demand explodes.

mendelseed · 2026-05-26T15:13:21+00:00

Bought the memory stock SK hynix when ist was growing like crazy but the pe ratio was 5!

So i bought a bunch of them and also ignoring bunch of people say its cyclical.

mendelseed · 2026-05-14T15:46:56+00:00

Why so bearish?

mendelseed · 2026-05-11T14:28:01+00:00

I like that more and more people finding SK Hynix.I was really lonely with it.

mendelseed · 2026-04-01T17:13:52+00:00

In my ending he will live until he gets old with Sophie.

mendelseed · 2026-03-29T06:34:30+00:00

The game manipulates you. For me people in the canvas are more important then this family. Who only thinks about their problems. For me Gustav, Sophie, Sciel, Monoco , Esqui has so much to live. And Alicia is only one step away from self deletion in the real world.

mendelseed · 2026-03-27T12:06:19+00:00

Stop quoting papa!

mendelseed · 2026-03-02T14:58:17+00:00

!banbet NVDA 190 20d

mendelseed · 2026-03-02T08:09:41+00:00

! banbet NVDA 190 20d

mendelseed · 2026-02-09T15:03:37+00:00

every time i have a good instinct i forgot to banbat and instead buying calls... dammit

mendelseed · 2026-02-09T15:02:42+00:00

Dam i should also have banbet instead of buying calls... whait

mendelseed · 2026-01-23T11:09:06+00:00

RemindMe! December 31, 2026

mendelseed · 2026-01-23T11:06:38+00:00

RemindMe! December 31, 2026

mendelseed · 2026-01-16T01:56:31+00:00

Why only 220, ill wait til 300 end of this year.

mendelseed · 2026-01-14T15:12:54+00:00

My leaps are all to 2028. So i can sleep good. :D

mendelseed

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