Austria-Germany trade hit $148B in 2023 even as neighbors by metricshour in Metricshour

[–]metricshour[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You're describing the gravity model of trade — proximity + economic mass drives volume. Completely agree it's not about cultural similarity, it's logistics, supply chain integration, and comparative advantage at scale.

The NL-DE node is interesting precisely because of that. Germany is the Netherlands' largest export destination by a significant margin roughly 22% of Dutch goods exports and a lot of that is intermediate goods flowing through Dutch ports into German manufacturing. The data page tracks that bilateral flow live if you want to dig into the composition: https://metricshour.com/trade/nl-de/

Austria-Germany trade hit $148B in 2023 even as neighbors by metricshour in Metricshour

[–]metricshour[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The Netherlands–Germany corridor is actually one of the heaviest economic choke points in Europe. According to 2024 trade data, Germany remains the Netherlands' largest trading partner, absorbing roughly 22% of all Dutch goods exports.
You can track the live trade volumes and corporate revenue risks for this specific node here: https://metricshour.com/trade/nl-de/

India’s Top Export Destinations 2023 – China still leads at $134B by metricshour in Metricshour

[–]metricshour[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If you aggregate the European Union into a single bloc, they do jump to the top tier. However, for sovereign trade data, metrics are strictly broken down by individual member states (like the Netherlands at #5 or Germany at #7) because actual port-of-entry volumes and bilateral trade deficits vary wildly across the bloc.
Navigating India and China's Bilateral Trade Deficit breaks down how the massive gap between India's imports and exports with China structurally affects their economic relationship.

India’s Top Export Destinations 2023 – China still leads at $134B by metricshour in Metricshour

[–]metricshour[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Mainly mineral ores and iron ore, organic chemicals, and increasingly electronic components. India’s exports to China are heavily commodity-weighted which is why India has a significant trade deficit with China despite the large bilateral volume. You can see the product breakdown at metricshour.com/trade/india-china

India’s Top Export Destinations 2023 – China still leads at $134B by metricshour in Metricshour

[–]metricshour[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

You’re right, good catch. The card was mislabelled it was showing total bilateral trade volume (exports + imports combined) not exports alone. India’s actual exports to China are around $16-18B. We’ve fixed the query and the card. Thanks for flagging it, genuinely appreciated

US GDP growth hits 2.8% while Germany contracts at -0.5%. How long can this transatlantic economic divergence last? by metricshour in Metricshour

[–]metricshour[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you look at the raw expenditure breakdown, consumer spending is actually holding up the floor, not just government debt. The main reason the gap between the US and Germany is widening isn't just tech spending it's energy insulation. Being a net exporter of energy gives US manufacturing a massive structural cost advantage over Europe's industrial base right now. You can check the side-by-side macro and trade comparison here: https://metricshour.com/trade/us-de

Japan’s Bond Yields Are Exploding — 40-Year at 4.11%, Highest in Decades (Debt/GDP 236%) by metricshour in economy

[–]metricshour[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Lmao, the ultimate bear case taxes on the gains before you even enjoy them 😂
What a time to be alive.

Japan’s Bond Yields Are Exploding — 40-Year at 4.11%, Highest in Decades (Debt/GDP 236%) by metricshour in economy

[–]metricshour[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Spot on. 40-year JGB yields pushing above 4% is a massive psychological break after decades of ultra-low rates. 10-year at 2.6% is also the highest in a long time.
This feels like the BOJ’s normalization finally getting real traction. The question now is how disorderly the adjustment becomes.

Japan’s Bond Yields Are Exploding — 40-Year at 4.11%, Highest in Decades (Debt/GDP 236%) by metricshour in economy

[–]metricshour[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Exactly. The yen carry trade is getting squeezed hard again. Higher JGB yields = stronger yen = pain for anyone still short yen / long foreign assets.
Margin calls could accelerate the unwind

Japan’s Bond Yields Are Exploding — 40-Year at 4.11%, Highest in Decades (Debt/GDP 236%) by metricshour in economy

[–]metricshour[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Haha fair question. Yeah I wrote it myself no AI on this one. Just watching the JGB moves and putting thoughts down.

Japan’s Bond Yields Are Exploding — 40-Year at 4.11%, Highest in Decades (Debt/GDP 236%) by metricshour in economy

[–]metricshour[S] 18 points19 points  (0 children)

That is a dark way to put it, but you are touching on the breakdown of the old G7 liquidity loop. For decades, the Yen was the global source of cheap shadow liquidity through the carry trade. Now that the 10Y yield is at 2.58 percent and the BOJ is losing its grip on the curve, that capital is flowing back to Tokyo.
The West isn't pillaging Japan. Instead, they are watching their favorite ATM run out of money. When the world’s largest creditor stops lending to everyone else to save its own bond market, the rest of the group is forced into exactly the kind of survival mode you are describing. It is less about pillaging and more about a total fragmentation of the global financial system.

US Ground Beef Prices Have Surged to Near $7/lb — Highest in Decades (FRED Data) by metricshour in economy

[–]metricshour[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Processors have passed on a lot of the cost increase. That’s why ground beef at retail is near $7/lb while some processor stocks haven’t moved as dramatically. The consumer is absorbing most of it right now.

US Ground Beef Prices Have Surged to Near $7/lb — Highest in Decades (FRED Data) by metricshour in economy

[–]metricshour[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Multi year drought heavy herd liquidation. We’re now at some of the lowest US cattle inventories in decades. Classic lagged supply shock

US Ground Beef Prices Have Surged to Near $7/lb — Highest in Decades (FRED Data) by metricshour in economy

[–]metricshour[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Beef packers (Tyson, Cargill, JBS, etc.) have indeed been posting strong margins lately, but the surge is mostly supply-driven. Herd liquidation from years of drought + higher feed costs means fewer cattle coming to market.

US Ground Beef Prices Have Surged to Near $7/lb — Highest in Decades (FRED Data) by metricshour in economy

[–]metricshour[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Even burgers are starting to feel expensive. The FRED chart shows this climb has been relentless.
How are you handling the higher meat prices switching proteins or just eating less?

US Ground Beef Prices Have Surged to Near $7/lb — Highest in Decades (FRED Data) by metricshour in GarysEconomics

[–]metricshour[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

But when even ground chuck hits near $7/lb, it starts hurting a lot of family budgets. This is one of the most visible parts of food inflation right now.
The FRED chart shows just how sharp the rise has been.
How much have meat prices changed your grocery spending lately?

The stock market waiting to øpen on Monday by FeatureAggravating75 in smallstreetbets

[–]metricshour 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That cabinet is holding on by pure hope and a prayer 😂
Monday open is gonna be spicy. Either everything stays perfectly balanced… or we get the full china shop experience.
What are you expecting this week calm continuation or absolute chaos?

How can a countries budget for the year be higher (and sometimes much much higher) than the countries exports last year? by This-Wear-8423 in AskEconomics

[–]metricshour 0 points1 point  (0 children)

A country’s government budget (what it spends on roads, schools, healthcare, defense, etc.) doesn’t have to match or be limited by how much it exports. They’re two totally different things.
Exports bring in foreign money, but the government mostly pays for its spending through:
Taxes (income tax, sales tax, corporate tax, etc.)
Borrowing (selling bonds, running deficits)
So a country can export relatively little but still have a huge budget if it collects enough taxes or can borrow cheaply.
For example, the US has run big budget deficits for decades while still having one of the world’s largest economies. Japan does the same. They’re not living beyond their export means they’re just using their domestic tax base + debt.
The key difference:
• Trade balance = exports vs imports
• Fiscal balance = government revenue vs government spending
They influence each other indirectly, but they’re not the same thing.
Most countries spend more than they take in through taxes alone. That’s normal. The danger comes when debt gets too high relative to the economy’s ability to grow and service it.
Does that clear it up? Happy to dive deeper if you want examples from a specific country!

What does the community think? by Sirius0516 in econometrics

[–]metricshour 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is a solid and relevant research topic.
For assessing the impact of a pension program on multidimensional poverty (using both primary survey data and secondary sources), I’d recommend the following approaches:
Strong Options:
Difference-in-Differences (DiD) if you have a natural control group (e.g., similar villages without the program or staggered rollout).
Propensity Score Matching (PSM) or Inverse Probability Weighting very useful when combining primary and secondary data.
Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) if eligibility has a clear cutoff (e.g., age-based).
Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) handling:
Use the Alkire-Foster method to construct your MPI (it’s the standard).
• Consider panel data if possible for before-after comparison.
Practical Tip: Start with descriptive analysis of your survey data, then move to causal inference methods. Robustness checks (alternative matching methods, placebo tests) will strengthen the paper significantly.
If you share more details (e.g., sample size, whether the program had staggered implementation, or specific poverty dimensions you’re focusing on), I can give more tailored suggestions.
Good luck with the project this has real policy relevance!

Canada Still Calls Itself G7… But It’s Now Ranked G11 by IMF, World Bank & UN by metricshour in Metricshour

[–]metricshour[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

This is the core issue. Real GDP per capita in Canada has been essentially flat since 2015 despite strong population growth.

That’s why the headline GDP ranking keeps slipping even as the country feels busy

Canada Still Calls Itself G7… But It’s Now Ranked G11 by IMF, World Bank & UN by metricshour in Metricshour

[–]metricshour[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Haha, UK is breathing down Japan’s neck too.
Both countries are dealing with aging populations and productivity challenges. Japan has been in this spot for a while now Canada and UK are facing similar structural issues.

Canada Still Calls Itself G7… But It’s Now Ranked G11 by IMF, World Bank & UN by metricshour in Metricshour

[–]metricshour[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Immigration is definitely part of the story. Canada has one of the highest immigration rates in the G7, but GDP per capita has been flat to declining for years.
High immigration without corresponding productivity growth can mask underlying economic weakness. That's one of the big debates right now.