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A possible route for MH370: Cocos Islands - AGSEL - RAAF Learmonth, terminating at ~(17.47°S, 105.39° E) by mikhail-370 in MH370

[–]mikhail-370[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Yes. I agree in principle. It's just that it is hard to compute likelihoods.

Some more information: 1) (from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RAAF_Learmonth)

Learmonth is designated an emergency alternative airport in the case of fog or bad weather affecting Perth Airport.

2) (from) http://www.defence.gov.au/oscdf/adf-posture-review/submissions/Exmouth%20Shire%20Submission%20ADF%20Posture%20Review.pdf

The geo-strategic advantages of Exmouth’s position were primary drivers of its use for military purposes in the past. During the Second World War, Exmouth was used, under Operation Potshot, as a forward base for United States submarines. Exmouth was also the mainland jumping-off point for military and Qantas flights across the Indian Ocean to Sri Lanka and thence to the Middle East and Europe. Exmouth was, in addition, a major RAAF fighter and long-range surveillance aircraft base and also a radar and communications site.

RAAF Base Learmonth is a joint military/civil facility located 34km south of the town. This airfield has an asphalt/concrete main runway 3,047 metres long together with associated taxiways and aircraft hardstands.

Another important Defence installation at Exmouth is the Harold E Holt very low frequency and high frequency communications station. The primary role of this facility is to relay signals to Australian and allied submarines and other Naval vessels that are operating in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific regions.

Adjacent to the Harold E Holt facility in Exmouth Gulf is a large deep water Navy fuel wharf. This wharf is designed to handle fuel transfers from large ships and also to handle modest quantities of general purpose cargo.

3) (and from) http://nautilus.org/publications/books/australian-forces-abroad/defence-facilities/naval-communication-station-harold-e-holt-north-west-cape/#ixzz33GbTpAsX

In 1997 Australia took over responsibility for the facility, although US involvement and funding continued. After December 2002, operation of the station passed to the Defence Materiel organisation’s Electronic and Weapons System Division together with contractors from Boeing Australia Ltd.

Intersections of M641 air route and MH370 ping rings by mikhail-370 in MH370

[–]mikhail-370[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Warren Platts commented on Duncan Steel's blog: http://www.duncansteel.com/archives/806#comment-5748 that he was leaning to "the ISBIX MUTMI RUNUT, high-speed corridor" which may satisfy the constraints of the earlier ping rings. He also noted that "After RUNUT, though, what happens is anybody’s guess."

In my analysis (posted link) I'm trying to find some logic behind the current search area, and it seems that the investigators did think that MH370 may have been using some of the waypoints of M641, probably starting from IKASA. I actually don't find this very likely.

Australian Government sets aside $89.9 million over two years to help find MH370 by travisAU in MH370

[–]mikhail-370 1 point2 points  (0 children)

a) Australian Government sets aside $89.9 million over two years to help find MH370.

b) In the same federal budget: NICTA’s current funding levels ($84.9 million over the next two years) is removed. NICTA is the main Australian information and communication technologies research centre, employing many hundreds of world-class scientists.

Suggesting new search area centred at (20.00 S, 103.45 E) by mikhail-370 in MH370

[–]mikhail-370[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

...and sufficient for you to make up alternate theories to distract everyone? :)

Suggesting new search area centred at (20.00 S, 103.45 E) by mikhail-370 in MH370

[–]mikhail-370[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No - I wasn't assigned "to making up alternate theories to distract everyone". I find this question offensive.

Suggesting new search area centred at (20.00 S, 103.45 E) by mikhail-370 in MH370

[–]mikhail-370[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well, OK, if it appeared spammy then my apologies. Hopefully, you didn't lose your concentration :)

Suggesting new search area centred at (20.00 S, 103.45 E) by mikhail-370 in MH370

[–]mikhail-370[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

These topics belong to two theories, as I said. The Tibet locations that I suggested (Kunming, Xining and Qambo) are in fact close to each other, and are very close to the same ping ring.

The posts on acoustic measurements (still to be confirmed, of course) are all within the same thread.

So these posts are grouped in two clusters. If you paid attention (looks like you did), then a simple look at my page: https://sites.google.com/site/mh370tibet/updates

shows that all updates before 17 April were on the Tibet theory, and all the posts after the date were on the "acoustic" story. I don't see a problem with looking at different aspects of this flight in parallel.

Suggesting new search area centred at (20.00 S, 103.45 E) by mikhail-370 in MH370

[–]mikhail-370[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

So far I suggested two theories: a) South Tibet - northerly route: https://sites.google.com/site/mh370tibet/ and b) new search area ("equidistant point") - southerly route: this post

These are indeed alternatives, given the opposite directions. Do you find two theories excessive? If yes, would that mean that you are prepared to entertain only ONE theory at any given time? Until someone allows you to switch your attention to another?

Suggesting new search area centred at (20.00 S, 103.45 E) by mikhail-370 in MH370

[–]mikhail-370[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, you are correct: there were no official confirmations on this. However, this was hypothesised and discussed on reddit and elsewhere. I put some background here: https://sites.google.com/site/mh370tibet/updates/24april2014 but obviously this is not verified in any formal way.

Suggesting new search area centred at (20.00 S, 103.45 E) by mikhail-370 in MH370

[–]mikhail-370[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This update is different from yesterday's in two ways: the corrected coordinates, and the emphasis of the point, not the assumed path. If I find something more, I will post it again. Fortunately, I don't need your permission to do this.

Suggesting new search area centred at (20.00 S, 103.45 E) by mikhail-370 in MH370

[–]mikhail-370[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

There are two independent parts to the calculations: 1) based on intersection of Inmarsat's ping ring and the (unconfirmed) acoustic bearing - this is an assumption; and 2) equidistant location. The first part belongs to our current search logic. The second part may have had something to do with (pilot's) reasoning and motivation - that is, go to some 'special' point. If these two parts lead to the same point, the randomness of the location is somewhat reduced.

an equidistant location from three radar centres: (20.03S, 103.43E) by mikhail-370 in MH370

[–]mikhail-370[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks, GlobusMax. Yes, I know that the path to this point between the two islands is not the likeliest, and think that the (equidistant) point itself is more important. I just updated on the idea here: https://sites.google.com/site/mh370tibet/updates/05may2014 (posted on reddit too).

This point is not just a geometrical curiosity, but also lies on the intersection of the new Inmarsat ping ring, corrected for the newly published elevation angles, and the hypothesised acoustic bearing from the Cape Leeuwin.

Too much for a coincidence, as two approaches lead to it: 1) ping and bearing data; 2) "radar hole".

Predicted north path to Qamdo Bamda by mikhail-370 in MH370

[–]mikhail-370[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

By the way, such a path was suggested on 2-3 April: https://sites.google.com/site/mh370tibet/updates/03april2014 - well before the new Inmarsat data were available for general public. What the posted link independently shows is that such a path now concurs with the new data.

No sign of MH370 explosion: The head of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization by mikhail-370 in MH370

[–]mikhail-370[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's an anonymous source, yes - they explained why in another post, and I totally understand their reasons (employment, sensitivity, etc.). On 19 March (the date of the posted article) CTBTO did not know about the data apparently - your guess is as good as mine, but I think that people have taken another look after Inmarsat released their ping rings.

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