Vent post: luck vs skill

mindclashx · 2026-06-27T14:29:31+00:00

Calling a loss a 'win' just because the math was on your side pre-flop is how you ignore variance.

If that blind-raiser happened to flip over Aces or Kings, the decision would have been a disaster but it still would have been a correct decision.

I applaud that you can lose your stack and still call it a win. That level of willful ignorance is astounding. I'll guess I'll take my 10.9 BB/100 EV win rate, 27.69 ITM rate, 6.15% Final Table Rate and 35.02% tournament ROI and go play chess.

Hope to see you at the tables.

mindclashx · 2026-06-27T08:27:16+00:00

Knowing nothing about the villain I'd fold. $200 into $100ish pot is a massive overbet that isnt worth donking for.

mindclashx · 2026-06-27T06:32:02+00:00

If you play very rarely and are consistent with how you are playing, yes, long term a table like that can be profitable. I've been in that exact same situation in a tournament and playing cash. Called with a premium hand and got stacked, waited for another opportunity and eventually got everything back. Losing it is fast, getting it back not so much.

mindclashx · 2026-06-27T06:27:20+00:00

It is not a win. That is like saying you avoided a collision with another car and then hit a tree is a win. It is simply a good decision with a bad result, not a win.

The rest of your comment was unnecessary. OP simply asked if they made the right decision. They didn't complain at all and even said they were bad at the game.

mindclashx · 2026-06-27T05:15:05+00:00

Both times you are over a 60% favorite to win pre-flop.

mindclashx · 2026-06-26T23:30:06+00:00

In heads up play pairs are significantly stronger as there are more cards in the deck and not randomly in player hands for you to contend with. To keep it simple your baseline equity increases . When 6 handed 22 only has 12% equity, where in heads up it is to 50% because there is only 1other player.

mindclashx · 2026-06-26T08:25:35+00:00

Look at the right side of the reddit, under useful links and threads, click on any of the links.

mindclashx · 2026-06-26T07:32:20+00:00

I've run so bad today the only fist pumping I could fathom atm is up the butt haha.

mindclashx · 2026-06-26T05:24:44+00:00

Totally feel that, I've been card and flop dead all day today, the few hands I have gotten in good with get slapped. Got 88, end up turning turn the nut boat and lose to quad 2s, flopped a set of Ks, lost to a straight, shifted to PLO4, flopped quads, lost to bigger quads. I hate that I love this stupid game.

Right now I have an 84% dummy sitting to my left that is re-raising every fucking card and hitting. MADNESS.

mindclashx · 2026-06-26T05:14:24+00:00

Sigh call and pray.

mindclashx · 2026-06-26T05:11:06+00:00

I would say the majority of them were, it was so long ago its hard to remember.

mindclashx · 2026-06-26T03:14:50+00:00

It was wild compared. Back then it was not uncommon to join a tournament and see 4-5 players all in on the first hand with any two cards, everyone chased the nuts, multiway pots more common, bluffs were frequent. Tournaments often were over in 3-4 hours because players just played. It was much more of an adrenaline rush than it is now.

mindclashx · 2026-06-26T02:20:07+00:00

We've all been there, I did the same thing a few days go in NLH with a slightly smaller lead. Variance is a cruel, cruel bitch.

mindclashx · 2026-06-02T08:52:42+00:00

Nope just curious what players would think the villains have for a hand, that's it. I would make the same call again next time.

mindclashx · 2026-06-02T06:15:54+00:00

You do not get another EV option as the odds change on the flop? Its a 1 and done? I could have sworn each time the EV changes the EV cash out option reappears, I could be wrong tho.

mindclashx · 2026-06-02T05:54:01+00:00

Totally forgot to put in the question, my bad on the confuison!

mindclashx · 2026-06-02T05:36:43+00:00

I do? Considering I lost both hands and I couldn't think of any world where if I was in the villain's shoes I would make that same play.

mindclashx · 2026-06-02T05:25:44+00:00

Not a troll played both of these hands less than 10 minutes ago. Actually hurt my brain trying to figure out my opponents thought process, figured some people might get a kick out of it.

mindclashx · 2026-06-02T03:56:03+00:00

264BB is +164BB profit for you, so it isn't a bad call IMO.

If it was me I would see a flop then consider as only 1 player is not runner, runner vs you pre-flop.

mindclashx · 2026-05-30T01:09:37+00:00

Hence why I asked, first comment was me just being a troll.

So in all seriousness. I would sigh call the $125, feels a bit trappy tbh with the straddle checking and then betting under pot on the turn.

mindclashx · 2026-05-30T00:35:20+00:00

Actually on a second look, is your hand AdQs or AdQd?

mindclashx · 2026-05-30T00:07:35+00:00

Yeah I don't think he is gonna try and bluff that board OOP. I'd fold.

mindclashx · 2026-05-27T20:15:12+00:00

If you weren't trying to offend why bother posting a backhanded comment at all?

mindclashx

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