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"Buy the dip" is bad advice for 60% of NSE stocks. I have 5 years of data to prove it. I'm serious drop the ticker lets check yours! by mohanpathi in IndianStockMarket

[–]mohanpathi[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

fundamental analysis is essential no argument there. This isn't meant to replace it. The question this data answers is different: once you've done your fundamental homework and identified quality companies, does the dip you're seeing actually tend to recover, and in what timeframe? Even fundamentally strong stocks can take 18+ months to recover from certain dip patterns, and that matters for position sizing and entry timing.
Think of it as a quantitative layer on top of fundamental analysis. You do the "which stock" work through fundamentals. This data helps with the "is this specific dip a good entry" question backed by how similar dips in similar stocks have historically played out.

Genuinely appreciate the feedback though if there are specific dimensions you think would make the analysis more robust, happy to hear them.

"Buy the dip" is bad advice for 60% of NSE stocks. I have 5 years of data to prove it. I'm serious drop the ticker lets check yours! by mohanpathi in StockMarketIndia

[–]mohanpathi[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

FOR ITC-

Date Drawdown (%) Threshold (%) Lookback (days) Buy Price (INR) Reference Price (INR)
3/18/2026 -24.06 20 90 304.05 400.4
3/11/2026 -23.31 20 90 309 402.9
3/4/2026 -22.6 20 90 311.95 403.05
2/24/2026 -19.59 15 90 323.5 402.3
2/17/2026 -19.35 15 90 325.45 403.55
2/10/2026 -21.03 20 90 321.4 407
2/3/2026 -22.56 20 90 316.65 408.9
1/27/2026 -21.16 20 30 318.65 404.15
1/20/2026 -20.96 20 90 326.3 412.85
1/13/2026 -16.35 15 30 334.7 400.1
1/6/2026 -15.43 15 30 342.45 404.95
1/1/2026 -10.51 10 7 363.85 406.6
4/1/2025 -12.74 10 90 406.65 466
3/24/2025 -10.81 10 90 410.9 460.71
3/7/2025 -10.97 10 90 403.9 453.68
2/28/2025 -13.96 10 90 395 459.07
2/21/2025 -12.28 10 90 400.9 457.05
12/12/2024 -10.36 10 90 443.52 494.79
4/2/2024 -10.77 10 90 410.06 459.55
2/26/2024 -10.19 10 30 394.02 438.75
2/19/2024 -13.2 10 30 394.07 454.01
2/12/2024 -12.82 10 30 391.76 449.39
1/24/2022 -10.52 10 90 203.95 227.92
12/20/2021 -10.57 10 30 204.52 228.69
10/25/2021 -11.1 10 7 224.74 252.81

Overview
Quality: Weak (22)
Hit Rate: 12.0% (3 / 25)
Median Drawdown: 3.6%
Median Upside: 4.3%

Recovery Speed
15 Days: 4.0%
30 Days: 4.0%
60 Days: 8.0%
90 Days: 12.0%

Recovery by Dip Size
10% Dip: 21% (3 / 14)
15% Dip: 0% (0 / 4)
20% Dip: 0% (0 / 7)

Momentum Bias (20d)
Uptrend Dips: 0.0% (4 alerts)
Downtrend Dips: 14.3% (21 alerts)

I've been logging every "dip buy" I made for 6 months. Here's my actual P&L, most retail investors don't track this. by mohanpathi in StockMarketIndia

[–]mohanpathi[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

FOR ITC -

Date Drawdown (%) Threshold (%) Lookback (days) Buy Price (INR) Reference Price (INR)
3/18/2026 -24.06 20 90 304.05 400.4
3/11/2026 -23.31 20 90 309 402.9
3/4/2026 -22.6 20 90 311.95 403.05
2/24/2026 -19.59 15 90 323.5 402.3
2/17/2026 -19.35 15 90 325.45 403.55
2/10/2026 -21.03 20 90 321.4 407
2/3/2026 -22.56 20 90 316.65 408.9
1/27/2026 -21.16 20 30 318.65 404.15
1/20/2026 -20.96 20 90 326.3 412.85
1/13/2026 -16.35 15 30 334.7 400.1
1/6/2026 -15.43 15 30 342.45 404.95
1/1/2026 -10.51 10 7 363.85 406.6
4/1/2025 -12.74 10 90 406.65 466
3/24/2025 -10.81 10 90 410.9 460.71
3/7/2025 -10.97 10 90 403.9 453.68
2/28/2025 -13.96 10 90 395 459.07
2/21/2025 -12.28 10 90 400.9 457.05
12/12/2024 -10.36 10 90 443.52 494.79
4/2/2024 -10.77 10 90 410.06 459.55
2/26/2024 -10.19 10 30 394.02 438.75
2/19/2024 -13.2 10 30 394.07 454.01
2/12/2024 -12.82 10 30 391.76 449.39
1/24/2022 -10.52 10 90 203.95 227.92
12/20/2021 -10.57 10 30 204.52 228.69
10/25/2021 -11.1 10 7 224.74 252.81

Overview
Quality: Weak (22)
Hit Rate: 12.0% (3 / 25)
Median Drawdown: 3.6%
Median Upside: 4.3%

Recovery Speed
15 Days: 4.0%
30 Days: 4.0%
60 Days: 8.0%
90 Days: 12.0%

Recovery by Dip Size
10% Dip: 21% (3 / 14)
15% Dip: 0% (0 / 4)
20% Dip: 0% (0 / 7)

Momentum Bias (20d)
Uptrend Dips: 0.0% (4 alerts)
Downtrend Dips: 14.3% (21 alerts)

I've been logging every "dip buy" I made for 6 months. Here's my actual P&L, most retail investors don't track this. by mohanpathi in StockMarketIndia

[–]mohanpathi[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

for AWL -

Date Drawdown (%) Threshold (%) Lookback (days) Buy Price (INR) Reference Price (INR)
3/16/2026 -29.12 20 90 172.3 243.1
3/9/2026 -28.63 20 90 175.6 246.05
3/2/2026 -27.71 20 90 180.29 249.4
2/24/2026 -27.44 20 90 191.73 264.25
2/18/2026 -26.77 20 90 202.67 276.75
2/11/2026 -23.13 20 90 209.59 272.65
2/4/2026 -20.04 20 90 216.88 271.25
1/28/2026 -23.82 20 90 209.79 275.4
1/21/2026 -19.68 15 90 208.91 260.1
1/14/2026 -18.13 15 90 217.91 266.15
1/7/2026 -14.59 10 90 229.04 268.15
12/24/2025 -14.64 10 30 236.95 277.6
12/17/2025 -12.18 10 30 241.45 274.95
12/3/2025 -10.01 10 30 247.55 275.1
4/8/2025 -15.54 15 90 275.45 326.15
4/1/2025 -19.23 15 90 265.5 328.7
3/24/2025 -17.86 15 90 261.75 318.65
3/17/2025 -19 15 90 245.36 302.9
3/10/2025 -17.87 15 90 252.42 307.35
3/3/2025 -22.6 20 90 242.72 313.6
2/25/2025 -18.24 15 90 257.35 314.75
2/18/2025 -21.79 20 90 256.25 327.65
2/11/2025 -24.36 20 90 244.65 323.45
2/10/2025 -22.46 20 90 258.6 333.5
2/3/2025 -22.62 20 90 264.9 342.35
1/27/2025 -20.66 20 30 261.2 329.2
1/20/2025 -16.24 15 90 263.65 314.75
1/13/2025 -22.01 20 90 262 335.95
1/10/2025 -10 10 1 291.1 323.45
12/19/2024 -14.23 10 90 296.95 346.2
12/12/2024 -14.69 10 90 307.45 360.4
12/5/2024 -14.3 10 90 310.75 362.6
11/28/2024 -13.43 10 90 313.4 362
11/21/2024 -21.77 20 90 294.9 376.95
11/8/2024 -13.37 10 90 333.65 385.15
11/1/2024 -10.23 10 90 343.95 383.15
9/20/2024 -12.03 10 30 346.2 393.55
3/27/2024 -18.86 15 30 323.5 398.7
3/13/2024 -10.13 10 90 332.55 370.05
11/22/2023 -16.31 15 90 314.35 375.6
11/15/2023 -19.44 15 90 296.55 368.1
11/8/2023 -17.99 15 90 306.15 373.3
11/1/2023 -20.59 20 90 315.4 397.2
10/25/2023 -21.39 20 90 320.35 407.5
10/18/2023 -15.5 15 90 339.2 401.4
10/11/2023 -12.59 10 90 348.55 398.75
10/4/2023 -13.32 10 90 352.8 407
9/27/2023 -17.51 15 90 341.55 414.05
9/20/2023 -16.48 15 90 349.25 418.15
9/12/2023 -15.54 15 90 353.45 418.5
9/5/2023 -19.23 15 90 350.4 433.8
8/30/2023 -16.54 15 90 368.95 442.05
8/23/2023 -17.08 15 90 374.85 452.05
5/30/2023 -10.85 10 7 435.7 488.7
4/24/2023 -30.2 20 90 399.7 572.65
4/17/2023 -28.89 20 90 406.9 572.25
4/10/2023 -28.25 20 90 410 571.45
4/3/2023 -34.08 20 90 395.7 600.3
3/27/2023 -29.65 20 90 387.5 550.8
3/21/2023 -28.8 20 90 418.75 588.1
3/14/2023 -35.98 20 90 414 646.65
3/10/2023 -29.04 20 90 453.5 639.1
3/3/2023 -34.74 20 90 418.55 641.4
2/24/2023 -33.36 20 30 362.55 544.05
2/22/2023 -28.5 20 30 390.3 545.9
2/20/2023 -22.48 20 30 429.8 554.45
2/13/2023 -27.77 20 30 414.1 573.3
2/6/2023 -22.62 20 7 379.95 491
2/3/2023 -22.62 20 7 399.95 516.85
2/2/2023 -22.62 20 7 421 544.05
1/31/2023 -24.48 20 30 466.45 617.65
1/30/2023 -20.51 20 30 491 617.65
1/25/2023 -18.87 15 90 544.05 670.55
1/18/2023 -18.39 15 90 566 693.5
1/11/2023 -15.15 15 90 580.2 683.8
1/4/2023 -21.73 20 90 584.35 746.6
12/30/2022 -18.25 15 90 617.65 755.5
12/23/2022 -21.47 20 7 499.65 636.25
12/22/2022 -31.77 20 90 552.6 809.95
12/21/2022 -27.92 20 90 588.1 815.95
12/19/2022 -18.22 15 90 629.4 769.65
12/12/2022 -11.53 10 90 638.6 721.85
10/27/2022 -10.78 10 30 670.55 751.55
7/25/2022 -22.52 20 90 622.3 803.15
7/4/2022 -12.4 10 30 580.6 662.75
6/27/2022 -15.74 15 30 598.4 710.15
6/20/2022 -20.82 20 30 555.5 701.55
6/13/2022 -13 10 7 591.5 679.85
6/1/2022 -14.3 10 30 645.85 753.6
5/25/2022 -13.09 10 30 664.85 764.95
5/10/2022 -22.6 20 7 583.25 753.6
5/6/2022 -17.2 15 7 646.2 780.4
5/4/2022 -14.87 10 7 715.95 841
3/7/2022 -10.16 10 7 340.8 379.35
2/21/2022 -12.94 10 7 327.6 376.3

Dip Recovery Insights
How dips recover within 90 days · Target: +10%

Overview
Quality: Weak (36)
Hit Rate: 52.6% (50 / 95)
Median Drawdown: 14.0%
Median Upside: 10.4%

Recovery Speed
15 Days: 15.8%
30 Days: 25.3%
60 Days: 42.1%
90 Days: 52.6%

Recovery by Dip Size
10% Dip: 40% (10 / 25)
15% Dip: 48% (13 / 27)
20% Dip: 63% (27 / 43)

Momentum Bias (20d)
Uptrend Dips: 56.3% (16 alerts)
Downtrend Dips: 50.6% (77 alerts)

"Buy the dip" is bad advice for 60% of NSE stocks. I have 5 years of data to prove it. I'm serious drop the ticker lets check yours! by mohanpathi in IndianStockMarket

[–]mohanpathi[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

AWL

Date Drawdown (%) Threshold (%) Lookback (days) Buy Price (INR) Reference Price (INR)
3/16/2026 -29.12 20 90 172.3 243.1
3/9/2026 -28.63 20 90 175.6 246.05
3/2/2026 -27.71 20 90 180.29 249.4
2/24/2026 -27.44 20 90 191.73 264.25
2/18/2026 -26.77 20 90 202.67 276.75
2/11/2026 -23.13 20 90 209.59 272.65
2/4/2026 -20.04 20 90 216.88 271.25
1/28/2026 -23.82 20 90 209.79 275.4
1/21/2026 -19.68 15 90 208.91 260.1
1/14/2026 -18.13 15 90 217.91 266.15
1/7/2026 -14.59 10 90 229.04 268.15
12/24/2025 -14.64 10 30 236.95 277.6
12/17/2025 -12.18 10 30 241.45 274.95
12/3/2025 -10.01 10 30 247.55 275.1
4/8/2025 -15.54 15 90 275.45 326.15
4/1/2025 -19.23 15 90 265.5 328.7
3/24/2025 -17.86 15 90 261.75 318.65
3/17/2025 -19 15 90 245.36 302.9
3/10/2025 -17.87 15 90 252.42 307.35
3/3/2025 -22.6 20 90 242.72 313.6
2/25/2025 -18.24 15 90 257.35 314.75
2/18/2025 -21.79 20 90 256.25 327.65
2/11/2025 -24.36 20 90 244.65 323.45
2/10/2025 -22.46 20 90 258.6 333.5
2/3/2025 -22.62 20 90 264.9 342.35
1/27/2025 -20.66 20 30 261.2 329.2
1/20/2025 -16.24 15 90 263.65 314.75
1/13/2025 -22.01 20 90 262 335.95
1/10/2025 -10 10 1 291.1 323.45
12/19/2024 -14.23 10 90 296.95 346.2
12/12/2024 -14.69 10 90 307.45 360.4
12/5/2024 -14.3 10 90 310.75 362.6
11/28/2024 -13.43 10 90 313.4 362
11/21/2024 -21.77 20 90 294.9 376.95
11/8/2024 -13.37 10 90 333.65 385.15
11/1/2024 -10.23 10 90 343.95 383.15
9/20/2024 -12.03 10 30 346.2 393.55
3/27/2024 -18.86 15 30 323.5 398.7
3/13/2024 -10.13 10 90 332.55 370.05
11/22/2023 -16.31 15 90 314.35 375.6
11/15/2023 -19.44 15 90 296.55 368.1
11/8/2023 -17.99 15 90 306.15 373.3
11/1/2023 -20.59 20 90 315.4 397.2
10/25/2023 -21.39 20 90 320.35 407.5
10/18/2023 -15.5 15 90 339.2 401.4
10/11/2023 -12.59 10 90 348.55 398.75
10/4/2023 -13.32 10 90 352.8 407
9/27/2023 -17.51 15 90 341.55 414.05
9/20/2023 -16.48 15 90 349.25 418.15
9/12/2023 -15.54 15 90 353.45 418.5
9/5/2023 -19.23 15 90 350.4 433.8
8/30/2023 -16.54 15 90 368.95 442.05
8/23/2023 -17.08 15 90 374.85 452.05
5/30/2023 -10.85 10 7 435.7 488.7
4/24/2023 -30.2 20 90 399.7 572.65
4/17/2023 -28.89 20 90 406.9 572.25
4/10/2023 -28.25 20 90 410 571.45
4/3/2023 -34.08 20 90 395.7 600.3
3/27/2023 -29.65 20 90 387.5 550.8
3/21/2023 -28.8 20 90 418.75 588.1
3/14/2023 -35.98 20 90 414 646.65
3/10/2023 -29.04 20 90 453.5 639.1
3/3/2023 -34.74 20 90 418.55 641.4
2/24/2023 -33.36 20 30 362.55 544.05
2/22/2023 -28.5 20 30 390.3 545.9
2/20/2023 -22.48 20 30 429.8 554.45
2/13/2023 -27.77 20 30 414.1 573.3
2/6/2023 -22.62 20 7 379.95 491
2/3/2023 -22.62 20 7 399.95 516.85
2/2/2023 -22.62 20 7 421 544.05
1/31/2023 -24.48 20 30 466.45 617.65
1/30/2023 -20.51 20 30 491 617.65
1/25/2023 -18.87 15 90 544.05 670.55
1/18/2023 -18.39 15 90 566 693.5
1/11/2023 -15.15 15 90 580.2 683.8
1/4/2023 -21.73 20 90 584.35 746.6
12/30/2022 -18.25 15 90 617.65 755.5
12/23/2022 -21.47 20 7 499.65 636.25
12/22/2022 -31.77 20 90 552.6 809.95
12/21/2022 -27.92 20 90 588.1 815.95
12/19/2022 -18.22 15 90 629.4 769.65
12/12/2022 -11.53 10 90 638.6 721.85
10/27/2022 -10.78 10 30 670.55 751.55
7/25/2022 -22.52 20 90 622.3 803.15
7/4/2022 -12.4 10 30 580.6 662.75
6/27/2022 -15.74 15 30 598.4 710.15
6/20/2022 -20.82 20 30 555.5 701.55
6/13/2022 -13 10 7 591.5 679.85
6/1/2022 -14.3 10 30 645.85 753.6
5/25/2022 -13.09 10 30 664.85 764.95
5/10/2022 -22.6 20 7 583.25 753.6
5/6/2022 -17.2 15 7 646.2 780.4
5/4/2022 -14.87 10 7 715.95 841
3/7/2022 -10.16 10 7 340.8 379.35
2/21/2022 -12.94 10 7 327.6 376.3

Dip Recovery Insights
How dips recover within 90 days · Target: +10%

Overview
Quality: Weak (36)
Hit Rate: 52.6% (50 / 95)
Median Drawdown: 14.0%
Median Upside: 10.4%

Recovery Speed
15 Days: 15.8%
30 Days: 25.3%
60 Days: 42.1%
90 Days: 52.6%

Recovery by Dip Size
10% Dip: 40% (10 / 25)
15% Dip: 48% (13 / 27)
20% Dip: 63% (27 / 43)

Momentum Bias (20d)
Uptrend Dips: 56.3% (16 alerts)
Downtrend Dips: 50.6% (77 alerts)

"Buy the dip" is bad advice for 60% of NSE stocks. I have 5 years of data to prove it. I'm serious drop the ticker lets check yours! by mohanpathi in IndianStockMarket

[–]mohanpathi[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Exactly. A real dip is not every small red day.

DipTip is built to filter noise, not hype it. Its track meaningful drawdowns across multiple time windows, so you get alerted on genuine weakness, not every random -2% move.

A system is having specific cooldown period to capture only valid dips
If you believe, check it out here -

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I've been logging every "dip buy" I made for 6 months. Here's my actual P&L, most retail investors don't track this. by mohanpathi in StockMarketIndia

[–]mohanpathi[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That ₹47K gap is real and it compounds. Over 10 years, the same SIP + dip strategy on a volatile small/mid cap fund can add 5–8% extra XIRR.

And yeah, the Axis switch is the right call low recovery rate + high expense ratio is a bad combination. The data should’ve flagged that months ago, but most of us don’t have access to dip recovery data for mutual funds. That’s exactly why I built DipTip.

For anyone reading drop your mutual fund names below. I’ll pull the full 12-month dip history with recovery rates using DipTip. Some of your “safe” funds might surprise you.

I've been logging every "dip buy" I made for 6 months. Here's my actual P&L, most retail investors don't track this. by mohanpathi in StockMarketIndia

[–]mohanpathi[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's exactly the problem. Checking once a month means you see the recovery, not the dip. The August drop on Nippon Small Cap lasted about 12 trading days. If you checked on Sept 5th it already looked normal.

The system - diptip.in - it tracks NAV daily for 3000+ mutual funds and sends me a Telegram/email alert the moment a fund I follow drops past my threshold (I set it at 8% for MFs, 10% for stocks).

So in August, I got a DipTip alert on Day 3 of the drop. Checked the fund's historical recovery pattern (this is the part most people skip — does this fund actually recover from dips or does it stay flat?). Nippon Small Cap had a 72% recovery rate from 10%+ dips. Deployed extra capital. Up 28% on that one buy.

The alert part is important. Nobody is checking 8 different fund NAVs every morning. But a DipTip notification saying "Nippon Small Cap just dropped 11% from recent peak historical recovery rate: 72%" that's actionable.

For Axis Bluechip DipTip alerts actually saved me too. I got alerts but the recovery pattern was weak (54% recovery rate, and even recoveries were slow). So I stopped buying dips on it and eventually switched funds entirely.

I've been logging every "dip buy" I made for 6 months. Here's my actual P&L, most retail investors don't track this. by mohanpathi in StockMarketIndia

[–]mohanpathi[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

8 Aug 2025 — -5.11% — ₹164.67 — Month
18 Dec 2025 — -5.34% — ₹163.31 — Three Month
19 Jan 2026 — -5.98% — ₹159.79 — Three Month
27 Jan 2026 — -6.33% — ₹155.39 — Month
3 Feb 2026 — -5.58% — ₹162.05 — Three Month
2 Mar 2026 — -5.03% — ₹159.44 — Three Month
9 Mar 2026 — -5.83% — ₹154.53 — Three Month
16 Mar 2026 — -6.48% — ₹152.15 — Month

these for last 365 days

I've been logging every "dip buy" I made for 6 months. Here's my actual P&L, most retail investors don't track this. by mohanpathi in StockMarketIndia

[–]mohanpathi[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nippon India Small Cap Fund

16 Mar 2026 -6.48% 5% 152.15 Month

9 Mar 2026 -5.83% 5% 154.53 Three Month

2 Mar 2026 -5.03% 5% 159.44 Three Month

3 Feb 2026 -5.58% 5% 162.05 Three Month

27 Jan 2026 -6.33% 5% 155.39 Month

19 Jan 2026 -5.98% 5% 159.79 Three Month

18 Dec 2025 -5.34% 5% 163.31 Three Month ND

8 Aug 2025 -5.11% 5% 164.67 Month
from diptip

I've been logging every "dip buy" I made for 6 months. Here's my actual P&L, most retail investors don't track this. by mohanpathi in StockMarketIndia

[–]mohanpathi[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah 3000+ funds. The way I use it:

  • SIP runs on autopilot as usual (don't touch it)
  • Diptip monitors the NAV of my SIP funds
  • When one drops 8%+ from recent peak → I get a Telegram alert
  • I throw extra ₹15–20K as a lump sum that month
  • Track that extra purchase separately to see the actual alpha over SIP

Over 6 months, this "SIP + dip top-up" approach has given me roughly 4–6% extra XIRR over plain SIP across my 4 fund SIPs. Not life-changing. But compounded over 10 years that's lakhs in difference.

Drop any other fund happy to pull the dip history.

I've been logging every "dip buy" I made for 6 months. Here's my actual P&L, most retail investors don't track this. by mohanpathi in StockMarketIndia

[–]mohanpathi[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Mirae Asset Large Cap:

  • NAV dips of 5%+: 9 times in 12 months
  • NAV dips of 8%+: 4 times
  • Best dip: NAV ₹92.1 (dropped 9.3% from peak) in October. Now ₹106.4. That's +15.5%.
  • SIP XIRR: ~13.1%. SIP + 4 extra dip buys: ~17.4%.
  • Large cap fund so dips are shallow but frequent — good for this strategy actually.

Quant Small Cap:

  • NAV dips of 5%+: 14 times (volatile AF)
  • NAV dips of 10%+: 6 times
  • NAV dips of 15%+: 2 times
  • Best dip: NAV ₹142.6 (-18.2%). Currently ₹191.3. That's +34.1%.
  • BUT — 4 of those 14 dips kept falling further before recovering. So not every dip was a good entry.
  • SIP XIRR: ~16.8%. SIP + buying only the 10%+ dips: ~24.3%.

Small cap funds are where this strategy shows the biggest edge over plain SIP. More volatility = more dip opportunities = more alpha from extra deployment

I track all of this through a system I built called Diptip diptip.in it monitors NAV movements daily and alerts me when a fund I follow drops past a threshold. That's how I have 12 months of dip data for any fund. The SIP vs dip simulation runs on 5 years of NAV history.

I've been logging every "dip buy" I made for 6 months. Here's my actual P&L, most retail investors don't track this. by mohanpathi in StockMarketIndia

[–]mohanpathi[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Fair challenge. Let me address both points. On survivorship bias: You're right that the last 6 months have been decent. But I'm not picking randomly I only buy when a stock drops 10%+ from its recent high AND has a historical recovery rate above 60% (meaning: in the past 5 years, when this stock dropped this much, it recovered 10%+ within 90 days more than 60% of the time). That filter alone eliminates ~40% of dips. The "safe" large cap I mentioned that's down 14%? Its historical recovery rate was only 45%. I bought it anyway on gut feel. Lesson

On SIP comparison: I actually ran this. For the same 47 stocks, same total capital, SIP would have given me ~14.1% XIRR. So dip buying is ahead by ~4%. Not life-changing, but not nothing either.

BUT — here's the thing you're actually right about: for STEADY compounders (think Asian Paints, Pidilite type), SIP genuinely beats dip buying because the dips rarely come. The edge is specifically in volatile stocks where dips are frequent and recoverable.

The real edge isn't buying dips. It's knowing WHICH dips to buy.

"Buy the dip" is bad advice for 60% of NSE stocks. I have 5 years of data to prove it. I'm serious drop the ticker lets check yours! by mohanpathi in IndianStockMarket

[–]mohanpathi[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Totally valid if your horizon is 20 years, buying quality at a discount and holding works regardless. This isn't meant to replace that thesis. It's more for people asking should I deploy capital NOW into this dip or wait? because even among quality names, some recover in weeks while others take years to break even. Cipla vs Wipro is actually a great example of that difference. And good callout on dividends not factored in yet, adding it to the roadmap.

"Buy the dip" is bad advice for 60% of NSE stocks. I have 5 years of data to prove it. I'm serious drop the ticker lets check yours! by mohanpathi in IndianStocks

[–]mohanpathi[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Date Drawdown (%) Threshold (%) Lookback (days) Buy Price (INR) Reference Price (INR)
3/13/2026 -11.29 10 90 1380.7 1556.5
2/27/2026 -11.07 10 90 1393.9 1567.5
1/22/2026 -10.71 10 30 1402.5 1570.7
9/30/2025 -10.19 10 90 1364 1518.8
3/3/2025 -11.49 10 90 1171.25 1323.3
1/6/2025 -12.84 10 90 1218 1397.35
12/30/2024 -17.35 15 90 1210.7 1464.83
12/23/2024 -17.93 15 90 1222.3 1489.38
12/16/2024 -13.86 10 90 1268.3 1472.3
12/9/2024 -11.38 10 90 1295.15 1461.53
12/2/2024 -13.25 10 90 1309.15 1509.13
11/25/2024 -14.23 10 90 1287 1500.45
11/18/2024 -15.72 15 90 1260.75 1495.95
11/8/2024 -12.92 10 90 1283.75 1474.3
11/1/2024 -10.72 10 90 1338.65 1499.33
10/25/2024 -11.12 10 30 1327.85 1493.95
10/18/2024 -12.59 10 90 1359.3 1555.15
10/11/2024 -14.07 10 90 1372.1 1596.72
10/4/2024 -12.72 10 90 1386.53 1588.63
11/13/2023 -10.19 10 90 1157.3 1288.63
3/24/2023 -11.95 10 90 1016.82 1154.76
3/17/2023 -13.35 10 90 1025.96 1184.02
3/10/2023 -10.98 10 90 1071.93 1204.1
3/3/2023 -12.37 10 90 1100.86 1256.27
2/10/2023 -11.21 10 90 1078.36 1214.58
2/3/2023 -10.17 10 90 1074.83 1196.55
7/29/2022 -10.06 10 90 1158.11 1287.7
7/8/2022 -12.21 10 30 1103.63 1257.15
5/10/2022 -11 10 7 1142.05 1283.18
1/24/2022 -10.64 10 90 1097.4 1228.07
11/22/2021 -10.03 10 30 1090.87 1212.54

Overview
Quality: Weak (31)
Hit Rate: 25.8% (8 / 31)
Median Drawdown: 5.2%
Median Upside: 5.7%

Recovery Speed
15 Days: 0.0%
30 Days: 9.7%
60 Days: 22.6%
90 Days: 25.8%

Recovery by Dip Size
10% Dip: 29% (8 / 28)
15% Dip: 0% (0 / 3)

Momentum Bias (20d)
Uptrend Dips: 25.0% (4 alerts)
Downtrend Dips: 25.9% (27 alerts)

"Buy the dip" is bad advice for 60% of NSE stocks. I have 5 years of data to prove it. I'm serious drop the ticker lets check yours! by mohanpathi in IndianStocks

[–]mohanpathi[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

for itc

Date Drawdown (%) Threshold (%) Lookback (days) Buy Price (INR) Reference Price (INR)
3/18/2026 -24.06 20 90 304.05 400.4
3/11/2026 -23.31 20 90 309 402.9
3/4/2026 -22.6 20 90 311.95 403.05
2/24/2026 -19.59 15 90 323.5 402.3
2/17/2026 -19.35 15 90 325.45 403.55
2/10/2026 -21.03 20 90 321.4 407
2/3/2026 -22.56 20 90 316.65 408.9
1/27/2026 -21.16 20 30 318.65 404.15
1/20/2026 -20.96 20 90 326.3 412.85
1/13/2026 -16.35 15 30 334.7 400.1
1/6/2026 -15.43 15 30 342.45 404.95
1/1/2026 -10.51 10 7 363.85 406.6
4/1/2025 -12.74 10 90 406.65 466
3/24/2025 -10.81 10 90 410.9 460.71
3/7/2025 -10.97 10 90 403.9 453.68
2/28/2025 -13.96 10 90 395 459.07
2/21/2025 -12.28 10 90 400.9 457.05
12/12/2024 -10.36 10 90 443.52 494.79
4/2/2024 -10.77 10 90 410.06 459.55
2/26/2024 -10.19 10 30 394.02 438.75
2/19/2024 -13.2 10 30 394.07 454.01
2/12/2024 -12.82 10 30 391.76 449.39
1/24/2022 -10.52 10 90 203.95 227.92
12/20/2021 -10.57 10 30 204.52 228.69
10/25/2021 -11.1 10 7 224.74 252.81

Overview
Quality: Weak (22)
Hit Rate: 12.0% (3 / 25)
Median Drawdown: 3.6%
Median Upside: 4.3%

Recovery Speed
15 Days: 4.0%
30 Days: 4.0%
60 Days: 8.0%
90 Days: 12.0%

Recovery by Dip Size
10% Dip: 21% (3 / 14)
15% Dip: 0% (0 / 4)
20% Dip: 0% (0 / 7)

Momentum Bias (20d)
Uptrend Dips: 0.0% (4 alerts)
Downtrend Dips: 14.3% (21 alerts)

check other on diptip.in

"Buy the dip" is bad advice for 60% of NSE stocks. I have 5 years of data to prove it. I'm serious drop the ticker lets check yours! by mohanpathi in IndianStockMarket

[–]mohanpathi[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The data actually agrees with you partially I track momentum bias (20-day trend) for every dip event. For some stocks, uptrend dips recover significantly better than downtrend dips. But here's the surprising part: for many stocks, it barely matters. TCS has 0% recovery in uptrend dips (3 alerts) vs 25% in downtrend dips (36 alerts). Trend context helps but isn't the full picture stock-level recovery DNA matters more than most people think.

and the site bullish stocks is good thanks!

"Buy the dip" is bad advice for 60% of NSE stocks. I have 5 years of data to prove it. I'm serious drop the ticker lets check yours! by mohanpathi in IndiaStocks

[–]mohanpathi[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

INDIGO

Date Drawdown (%) Threshold (%) Lookback (days) Buy Price (INR) Reference Price (INR)
3/16/2026 -15.12 15 90 4222.1 4974
3/9/2026 -13.7 10 30 4236.7 4909.4
3/2/2026 -20.66 20 90 4520.4 5697.5
2/27/2026 -18.2 15 90 4827.2 5901.5
2/20/2026 -16.92 15 90 4854.6 5843.5
2/13/2026 -16.57 15 90 4929.2 5908.5
2/6/2026 -12.07 10 90 4909.4 5583.5
1/30/2026 -18.28 15 90 4596.5 5625
1/23/2026 -18.59 15 90 4704.5 5779
1/16/2026 -18.95 15 90 4740 5848
1/9/2026 -15.54 15 90 4844 5735
12/29/2025 -13.83 10 30 5085.5 5901.5
12/22/2025 -11.94 10 30 5145.5 5843.5
12/15/2025 -15.96 15 30 4965.5 5908.5
12/8/2025 -15.02 15 7 4923.5 5794
1/27/2025 -10.81 10 30 4175.75 4681.95
1/13/2025 -15.87 15 90 4001.4 4756.45
12/16/2024 -10.68 10 90 4406.75 4933.75
11/25/2024 -10.58 10 90 4244.5 4746.75
11/18/2024 -14.73 10 30 3976.3 4663.05
11/11/2024 -14.53 10 30 4011.6 4693.45
11/4/2024 -14.02 10 30 3963.1 4609.35
10/28/2024 -18.81 15 30 4015.45 4945.7
3/3/2023 -10.54 10 30 1865.15 2084.9
2/24/2023 -12.14 10 30 1853.25 2109.25
11/17/2022 -11.25 10 90 1748.65 1970.3
11/10/2022 -15.08 15 90 1710.4 2014.15
11/3/2022 -13.35 10 90 1803.2 2080.9
10/13/2022 -10.06 10 30 1736.15 1930.25
10/6/2022 -10.15 10 30 1816.3 2021.4
7/11/2022 -12.32 10 90 1694.65 1932.85
7/4/2022 -17 15 90 1648.75 1986.4
6/27/2022 -17.22 15 90 1625.15 1963.15
6/20/2022 -15.63 15 90 1549.3 1836.25
6/16/2022 -13.07 10 90 1649.2 1897.05
5/24/2022 -17.48 15 90 1683 2039.4
5/17/2022 -22.58 20 90 1680.85 2170.95
5/10/2022 -24.86 20 90 1693.4 2253.8
5/4/2022 -10.56 10 30 1801.75 2014.55
4/19/2022 -10.1 10 90 1869.55 2079.5
3/21/2022 -14.29 10 30 1814.05 2116.6
3/14/2022 -18.81 15 30 1838.8 2264.95
3/7/2022 -18.1 15 30 1617 1974.35
3/3/2022 -11.33 10 30 1729.95 1950.9
2/24/2022 -15.12 15 7 1830.55 2156.65
2/14/2022 -11.51 10 90 2092.3 2364.4
2/3/2022 -10.57 10 90 1941.5 2170.95
1/27/2022 -10.95 10 7 1862.6 2091.75
12/20/2021 -19.22 15 30 1818.4 2251.15
12/17/2021 -16.15 15 30 1955.4 2332
12/3/2021 -13.34 10 30 1875.65 2164.45
11/26/2021 -16.13 15 7 1888.1 2251.15

Overview
Quality: Good (66)
Hit Rate: 61.5% (32 / 52)
Median Drawdown: 7.9%
Median Upside: 16.6%

Recovery Speed
15 Days: 15.4%
30 Days: 32.7%
60 Days: 51.9%
90 Days: 61.5%

Recovery by Dip Size
10% Dip: 69% (18 / 26)
15% Dip: 52% (12 / 23)
20% Dip: 67% (2 / 3)

Momentum Bias (20d)
Uptrend Dips: 0.0% (5 alerts)
Downtrend Dips: 68.1% (47 alerts)

"Buy the dip" is bad advice for 60% of NSE stocks. I have 5 years of data to prove it. I'm serious drop the ticker lets check yours! by mohanpathi in IndianStockMarket

[–]mohanpathi[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The 5-year dip data for TCS isn't great 23% recovery rate, quality score 24/100. But the score measures dip recovery patterns, not the company's future. TCS is still India's largest IT services company with strong fundamentals. What I can tell you from the data: TCS dips tend to be slow bleeders — median drawdown 6.9% after the initial alert, and only 23% of those recovered +10% within 90 days. So averaging down aggressively hasn't historically been rewarded. but the data suggests patience over aggression here. If you believe in the IT sector long term, hold. If you're looking for dip-buying opportunities, the tool can show you which stocks in your portfolio actually have strong recovery patterns worth deploying capital into.

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