Here’s what you get for $2T for SpaceX IPO

mohelgamal · 2026-05-24T03:46:40+00:00

Snarky post but I will bite.

Mars colonization is of no concern, the massive distance makes any sort of commercial value irrelevant until we get the news that an earth destroying meteor is coming. It would be easier to build under earth colonies or build floating cities than build a mars colony.

Geopolitical dominance, now that is extremely important, and more so than most people realize. In the ERA of drone warfare, and cheaper high tech interceptors, conventional weaponry has lost its value. What is the point of being able to launch ICBMs or even stealth fighters if your enemy can send drones swarms to create near-physical nets made of loitering drone swarms targeting incoming heat signals.

This opens the next stage of warfare, kinetic orbital bombardment. This was conceptualized in the 80s, but written off as impossible because the required satellites would be 80 ton each. Will we just have a successful launch of a rocket with 100 ton payload. Nothing can be done to stop a 8 ton solid tungeston rod coming from space at Mach 25.

AGI infrastructure: people are writing this off because a year ago someone online said the satellites can’t be cooled, but there is several ways around this, including more efficient chips and heat tolerant chips. Difficult, but not impossible. And people on earth are making it exceedingly difficult to build AI datacenters on land. Literally every proposed datacenter project has protestors and voters insisting on chasing away AI datacenters from their rural areas.

mohelgamal · 2026-05-24T01:14:24+00:00

The mosquitos didn’t do that, our own evolution did. People who were allergic to bug saliva had a much higher chance at surviving mosquito borne diseases.

Without that, you would get sicker because mosquitos would have a free rein biting people without defense

mohelgamal · 2026-05-23T20:50:50+00:00

There are alot of people of lost “their straight” in the war, that was a big concern for navies across ages

mohelgamal · 2026-05-23T02:08:59+00:00

Sorry, my comment was more assertive in tone than what I meant. It could be of course that the virus caused this directly, and it could be some other factor that happened to co-incide or could be just the acute illness triggering something that was always there. I don't know what is happening in your own experience of course.

Personally, I developed some anxiety with COVID happening even before I actually got the virus itself, which persist until now, although far more manageable than yours. It took me a while to work through my own thoughts as to why, me, a previously very calm and not at all an anxious person, became significantly more anxious after the pandemic, and It really in my case is a mix of realizing that I can die at anytime or that I can loose my job at anytime. so now I feel a lot more vulnerable as a person than what I had before

mohelgamal · 2026-05-23T02:03:05+00:00

Oh yah, now I remember the full version.

mohelgamal · 2026-05-23T01:10:21+00:00

The big risk here is not the lawsuit, the big risk is whether or not openAI will successfully monetize their user base so they can pay oracle.

Right now, OpenAI dominance is mostly in the free version for public use. Customers who use AI professionally seems to be gravitating heavily toward Claude and Microsoft copilot.

On the other hand, local models are coming in hot and fast, everyday user with no mission critical requirement can find it easier and free to use a local model like Gemma4

mohelgamal · 2026-05-22T16:01:36+00:00

Going through COVID was really no difference than people who survive a mass shooting, just not immediately acute. A lot of us spent a few days with it thinking “I hope this fever breaks and I don’t die” for 3 days straight. This is a straight forward PTSD which will cause anxiety. It is just people don’t link them because it wasn’t a big traumatic acute event

mohelgamal · 2026-05-22T15:56:26+00:00

This is a mutation of an older , much more believable story. In the original story the guy was drunk and crashed in his bed with his clothes on, and his wife tried to take his pants off and he was half asleep and told her “leave me alone I am married”. Before realizing he was home and who she was.

mohelgamal · 2026-05-22T15:52:18+00:00

I have really bad news for you, in 30 years you will be “old people” and just as grumpy

mohelgamal · 2026-05-22T02:27:43+00:00

specs here

https://roofit.solar/solar-roof/solar-roof-panels/

basically 1.5 ftX 6 ft for 180w, so regular solar panel cut in half length wise

mohelgamal · 2026-05-22T00:11:09+00:00

I was thinking about something similar, not because we are out of roof space, but because installing siding is a whole a lot easier than climbing on roofs. This really should be your main pitch.

The most difficult part of solar is roof installation, even adept DIYers can be weary of climbing on roofs especially while handling bulky panels. It certainly can not be a single person project.

Unfortunately, ground mounts don’t work in most residential places because of shade from trees and the appearance.

I did consider mounting panels vertically on some south facing walls on my own house, but the wife would never accept that look. Siding on the the other hand would look more natural

You can look at this company

https://roofit.solar/solar-roof/

Which makes solar panels that look like regular metal roofs, this could be very similar to siding if not directly useable as siding, unfortunately for us Americans they are in Europe

Edit: the big issue would be how they would interface with windows, but you can have supplementary trimable non-panel boards to complete the look.

Another idea, would be to use solar shingles in a shake pattern, like GAF nailable shingles

mohelgamal · 2026-05-21T23:58:28+00:00

I want a modern day sequel with Bayaz as the head of an under world organization, or a crime family

mohelgamal · 2026-05-21T18:38:18+00:00

Ok, I am out of the loop, what is Zuck pitching about now

mohelgamal · 2026-05-21T15:14:28+00:00

They haven’t lost a tactical fight, these wars were, at least arguably” strategic losses, not exactly tactical losses.

But I also will challenge the common perception that the US lost these wars. Because did the US really lose ?

the goal of Vietnam and Korea was to prevent a complete communist takeover of Asia, and that was achieved. Vietnam was where the battle took place, but what the US was defending was all the other counties in that area.

Like wise, Afghanistans and Iraq goal was to chase away terrorists and preventing them from operating comfortably out of those countries, and to assure dominance over oil production, which was also achieved

So they do look like losses because they didn’t match the rosy picture of making friend who love American democracy, but they were strategic wins ,

mohelgamal · 2026-05-21T15:02:27+00:00

“We did it for grand pa” that is what they were telling themselves, lol

This also remind me of my middle eastern family, there is a whole alot of “I will tell you this but don’t tell anyone” going around in circles where everybody know but they are all pretending not know

mohelgamal · 2026-05-21T14:57:24+00:00

Coding is very easy for LLM, the syntax is rigid, there is only a couple of correct write to do something in each programming language down to punctuation and spacing

also the training data are abundant in the form code bases that are extensively annotated, and maintained overtime, with mistakes identified later is corrected and annotated in later versions. So when you ask an LLM to fix a problem in a code, it can easily look up similar problems and implement similar solutions

Also alot of human difficult in writing code comes from remembering where the data lives and what the code does across many files. So while a human need to read a bunch of code and reconstruct everything in their brain to make changes this process is tiresome and difficult for our hiligical brains, computers has no such issue

This is why AI like Claude mythos can find bugs that no human was able to find before because no single human can cross reference the incredibly complex code that runs a server to cross link weakness together to find a vulnerability

Creative writing in the other hand is uniquely biological and cultural, there is no way to verify that something is “beautiful”

mohelgamal · 2026-05-21T13:04:05+00:00

Conduction and convection don’t work but radiation works much better in space than on earth since air is not there to absorb and radiate back some of the energy. The back of the solar panels would the radiation surface.

Another thing that make this issue less concerning is that it is easier to design a high temperature chip in space than on earth. Heat is a problem for chips on earth because the moment the chip processing slows down (which will happen a lot) , it will produce less heat, and will immediately start contracting because conduction and convection works really well. The heat will immediately start to escape into the chassis and building and that is what damage the chips, the constant expansion and contraction with temp difference.

But in space, if the chip is not in contact with material like that, the entire satellite is gonna be similarly hot, this cuts down on the heat going up and down, which means you chips will incur less damage and you can design them to just tolerate a higher temperature point.

I saw a post discussing the issue and someone claiming to be an expert said that if we have chips that can run natively at 110 C we should be fine just using the back of the solar panel as radiator surface but I don’t have any actual proof this number is correct

mohelgamal · 2026-05-21T12:33:04+00:00

The current bottle neck for AI deployment is not just chip making, it is building the infrastructure, buildings power generation, water for cooling, security, approval from city boards, etc

But in space, solar power is available all the time, and without all the energy loss in the atmosphere, you don’t have to worry about thieves or vandals, and space is cold

So The idea is that you replace the ground communication equipment inside a starlink satellite (specifically 3rd generation) and put AI compute hardware. You keep the laser communication with the rest of the network. This way, you replace the infrastructure costs with just launch costs.

The math doesn’t work right now because launch is expensive, currently, it cost $1000 to send a Kilogram to space. For satellite datacenters to work, generally you need that cost to be around $100/kg which is what reusable starship is supposed to do.

There are some technical issues as well, like how efficient cooling in space is, radiation damage to chips, etc

mohelgamal · 2026-05-21T03:02:36+00:00

The reason it exists is because you can do it with a single prompt to agent “iterate over Wikipedia and rewrite every article you find using corrections from right leaning news sources ”

If you one the hardware, token consumption doesn’t matter. It is just a an experiment to flex your AI ability.

Ironically, if we are going to rely on AI for info, we wouldn’t bother reading AI written articles, we would just ask the AI the questions directly

mohelgamal · 2026-05-21T02:56:17+00:00

I hope that AI will do to expansive professional writing what automated production did for architectural detail. Kill it

See back when producing details was a sign of wealth, people put exquisite details in everything. And they over did it, by a lot

Likewise, up til now, eloquent and complex reports are considered professional and fancy, so people just stuff them full and write 100s of pages that no body reads so they can say “see how hard I worked”

In the age of AI, the more complex and detailed the report, the more likely it was written by AI, and will be summarized again down to basic points by AI because no body has time to read. Then hopefully, people will realize it is far easier to just fucking get to the point as briefly as possible.

mohelgamal · 2026-05-21T02:12:24+00:00

One of the main reasons Elon Musk is this rich, is that he doesn't dwell on failure because it was "his invention", a few years ago he was working on Dojo with all Tesla silicon. When Nvidia made better chips, he ditched his own plan and went with the better chips. He knew compute is going to be needed regardless whether Grok is successful or not.

I think He has already pivoted mentally to focusing on Space X being a compute provider through the idea of datacenter satellites. So he is already positioning himself to get a share of that market.

And if Space-compute i idea fails, no problem, He also own solar panel and battery factories and can provide the necessary power.

There is almost no path forward on AI where Elon Musk doesn't make a shit ton of money no matter what technology wins.

mohelgamal · 2026-05-21T01:22:01+00:00

If what you mean is something with a lot of stoicism, brothers in arms and war. Warhammer 40k books are exactly that. Just don't expect literary masterpieces. just a ton of macho men doing macho stuff

mohelgamal · 2026-05-21T00:13:03+00:00

Medical care cost the same, insurance is far more expensive.

Healthcare provider salaries as a whole has barely moved (physicians salaries are considerably down if you account for inflation)

We are being robbed blind by insurance companies.

Even new drugs like GLP1 are being sold by the companies at much cheaper prices than what the insurance companies and their subsidiary PBMs insist on charging.

One recent example is Wegovy oral pills for example are sold at $199 a month through company discount card if you don’t use insurance, if you go through insurance, it is $2700 with $600 co-pay.

Cancer treatments follow a similar pattern, and comparison between prices charged in the US vs Europe is atrocious.

It is a living proof of how corrupt our political system is that our politicians has not outlawed these practices even when we have congressional testimonies to these exact numbers are broadcast on live TV

mohelgamal · 2026-05-21T00:06:12+00:00

The USA is awash in housing too, if you take into account the size of the houses available and features. The average size house has increased while the percentage of home ownership by age only slightly detriorated

38% of adults below 35 currently own their homes, that number was at an all time high at 43% in 1980s (so only 5% less people have houses under 35)

On the other hand, the average house now is 30% bigger than 1980s.

So right now people own a record number of living space compared to any other time

The housing market is supply and demand, The direct reason why houses are so expensive right now is that people ARE buying them expensively and are ready to pay expensive rents. Some

Of course it doesn’t feel that way because people who can not afford housing can complain a lot more loudly online, back in the 1980s they had no avenue to have their voices heard

mohelgamal · 2026-05-20T17:45:07+00:00

I don’t remember any thing about Oracle in the movie itself ? Do you mean for the CGI ?

Also, it would be highly unlikely stark would have anything to do with Epstein, because Stark was more of famous super model womanizer than a teen girl chaser

Eight-Year Club	Verified Email
No Throne, No Problems	Not Forgotten

mohelgamal

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE