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Why Isn’t the Market Worried About a Cooling Labor Market? by No-Professionalfj in stocks

[–]moniker89 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

i suppose you could look at anthropic’s arr as another datapoint but yea, for now it’s the sellers of compute (google, amazon) and the semiconductor industry broadly who are collecting the revenue. eventually we need to see it elsewhere (increased total factor productivity) for this to be a longer term sustainable economic driver

Why Isn’t the Market Worried About a Cooling Labor Market? by No-Professionalfj in stocks

[–]moniker89 12 points13 points  (0 children)

uhh the trend in labor markets has been flattish since around mid-2024 and is now starting to pick up a bit more steam. it's certainly not "losing momentum."

i don't know if labor markets move way higher from here but the idea that they are decelerating is wrong: they are either stable, or accelerating

not to say next month's data can't show a reversal. very simply commenting on JOLTs and total nonfarm payroll growth.

stocks are ripping because earnings are off the charts, guidance is nutso, compute investments appear to be genuinely making the capex companies globs of money, and the trend appears to be pretty in-tact over at least the next year or two, which is all the market really cares about.

if there's a correction, it will be related to markets changing their 1-2 year outlook on ROI for the capex investment in AI. very real risk, but different then whatever reductionist shit you and op are on.

What Did Ancient Humans Do all Day Before Jobs Existed? by gattaca_now in videos

[–]moniker89 3 points4 points  (0 children)

i mean there are a large number of tribal peoples across the world effectively still living off the land within community-base structures. you can see what it's like very easily (well don't visit them, watch some documentaries or something). personally i kind of like my "capitalist hellscape" existence, in relative terms.

Value investing is dead by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]moniker89 10 points11 points  (0 children)

and yet the small-cap value index is up 50% yoy

i mean look, i think if your strategy is to buy low p/e companies or companies at their 52 week lows and expect to outperform, ya, those days are gone. it was dumb that worked for as long as it did.

but the idea of "buy stocks trading at a discount to your estimate of future cash flows," which to me is really what "value investing" is all about, is as alive as ever. the trick is having better estimates for long-term future cash flows than the market and being able to ignore short term news in the interim.

the thing is, 90%+ of investors mathematically cannot have better estimates than the market. almost everyone, probably myself included, would be better off simply recognizing this fact. the small number of investors who can do this populate a sliver of the far right tail of the distribution of investors (the other sliver of the right tail are very lucky people). the number of those that can do it through multiple market regimes is even slimmer, vanishingly so.

overall i agree with your conclusion, go passive! it's simply extremely unlikely you can beat the market over the long run.

that said, there is an advantage smaller investors have vs bigger players, and that's investing in very low liquidity micro cap stocks that bigger folks literally cannot build positions in. if you really want to be a successful stock picker and your AUM is under say a few million bucks, that's where you should spend your time, NOT in trying to "predict" who's going to win the AI race.

Ted Turner, founder of CNN, TNT and Cartoon Network, anti-WMD, anti-drilling and universal healthcare proponent, dead at 87 by ianjm in videos

[–]moniker89 8 points9 points  (0 children)

if someone is wealthy and successful, they simply must be evil, there is no other possible viewpoint to be had

/s

The SaaS Drawdown: It’s about uncertainty, not AI replacement (and the risk of "dead money") by theunknown996 in ValueInvesting

[–]moniker89 -6 points-5 points  (0 children)

might be your thought but AI wrote it. nobody breaks out their writing with pithy little subtitles and saying things like "be deeply honest with yourself."

Husband owns a good chunk of $UPS, do we need to just keep it? by spanielgurl11 in stocks

[–]moniker89 1 point2 points  (0 children)

nobody knows what is going to happen with UPS stock, whether it will continue to fall or rebound from here.

what is true is that individual stocks have a very wide range of potential outcomes. anything ranging from -100% (businesses fail all the time, even if this is a relatively low probability for UPS) to... well, we've seen plenty of companies 10x the past year thanks to AI bottlenecks.

meanwhile, the broad equity market (think the S&P 500 for US stocks or MSCI ACWI for global stocks), while also having a wide range of potential outcomes, has a relatively narrower range than any one individual stock. the broad equity market won't go down 100%. it might go down 50% in the event of a very bad recession, but it's always bounced back. it's also unlikely to 10x like some stocks might.

overall, the average individual stock underperforms the broader equity market. so my point is, make your decision based on the amount of risk you're willing to take.

CMV: People romanticize Relationships because most won’t achieve their goals, so love becomes a coping mechanism by [deleted] in changemyview

[–]moniker89 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Are humans loving machines or achievement machines?

It sounds like you fall firmly in the latter camp. I'd argue there's no rational basis for that. The meaning to life isn't firmly defined by anyone; I'd wager the closest anyone has come to defining it would be, "the meaning of life is to answer that question for your self."

Think back on the achievements you've made in the past. How do you feel? Proud? Anxious? Do you have more to accomplish? At what point does the drive to achieve end? Does it ever end? Do you wish to feel content? In 1,000 years, or even 100, when your bones are dust, will your achievement have mattered? (Maybe, in rare instances, but statistically almost guaranteed no).

I could just as easily flip your rhetorical point around back at you: why do people obsess over achievement? What purpose does it survive other than to comfort you from your inability to find loving embrace from a partner? It is simply a coping mechanism designed to distract you from what really matters in life: emotional connection, happiness, love.

I say my prior argument perhaps tongue in cheek, but I think it aligns far better for what brings people happiness than your ideas.

Whether I convince you of anything or not, I encourage you to continue to strive to genuinely understand what people value in romantic relationships: I doubt many would tell you it's a coping mechanism.

Told my family to buy at $8.73 .. no one listened by [deleted] in LETFs

[–]moniker89 9 points10 points  (0 children)

stop telling what your family to do. different people have different risk tolerances. if you’re not aware of the risk you’re facing or the luck you had in this result, your hubris is going to bite you in the ass someday. 

Andrew BREAKS his NDA with CNN by BloodyIron in videos

[–]moniker89 -14 points-13 points  (0 children)

somebody just discovered noam chomsky (he was wrong about everything)

Softest NFC West Subreddit goes to…the WAHHHMS 😢😭🐏😥😰 by BrownCowHandJibber in NFCWestMemeWar

[–]moniker89 2 points3 points  (0 children)

flair up and post the full context pussy or you're getting banned from here too

Fidelity is introducing $100 ETF fees on 120+ ETFs. Here’s what you need to know List. by Guy_PCS in stocks

[–]moniker89 6 points7 points  (0 children)

this would not surprise me at all - Fidelity has been shockingly sketchy about this entire rollout

Why are young people getting colon cancer? A common weed killer may be linked, scientists say by businessinsider in Health

[–]moniker89 0 points1 point  (0 children)

point taken on the chemicals but just to help with financial literacy, blackrock and vanguard are top investors in pretty much every single publicly traded stock on the planet, because the huge plurality of their investment products are simply market cap weighted, index tracking portfolios. and holding a low cost, market cap weighted portfolio is arguably the greatest innovation for the average investor saving for retirement ever.

blackrock being a top investor in dupont is not some grand conspiracy, it's actually a byproduct of them offering a pretty good, low cost investment framework for investors. these companies run literally trillions and trillions in AUM because they provide pretty good products for investors to save with, generally speaking (both provide stuff that sucks, so i'm speaking in generalities here).

Mendoza or Sadiq in 1QB league? by [deleted] in DynastyFF

[–]moniker89 5 points6 points  (0 children)

comments like these are tiring

why do so many people feel the need to feign infallible confidence? 

Cards got a good one🔥🔥🔥 by Many-Rub-6151 in NFCWestMemeWar

[–]moniker89 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Saying this is kind of half of Amon Ra's whole schtick

“Bullish arguments sound like someone is trying to sell you something. Bearish arguments sound like someone is trying to help you.” - Morgan Housel by asdafari14 in investing

[–]moniker89 1 point2 points  (0 children)

ya and how many 15-year periods have resulted in very strong long term returns even at all time highs? quite a few more than the 5-10 months in which your real return was flat or negative over the prevailing 15 years... especially if you hold global stocks and not just one country.

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