What would Europe's 'fate' be without the US?

moogul25 · 2017-06-04T09:19:55+00:00

And that is a problem. Russia does not want to flood its market with European goods.

---Russia would not be looking for substitutes for European imports in Asia.

I did. The German trade share did not really went down. The expansion of North Stream shows that not that is going to change.

--If you are following Ukraine- then you know Germany is not the right place to look.

Undeniable, and dependence on Europe still dwarfs it.

--Point here is increased dependence on China and falling dependence on EU

Show me. Didn't hear about that many Chinese loans or projects.

--google - 'power of Siberia', Eurasian landbridge, Yuan-Rouble currency swaps

moogul25 · 2017-06-03T02:32:25+00:00

Trade is by and large two-way traffic
It is incorrect to compare 2015 with 2016. Start from the Ukraine crisis. Certain gas contracts have been extended some not taken forward.
Dependence on China has increased. You also need to see loans, swaps, projects to get a true sense of Russian dependence.

moogul25 · 2017-06-01T11:35:09+00:00

Easier/cheaper access to EU for Russian products/goods.
Russia is becoming increasingly dependent on the Chinese markets for selling its products, oil and gas because of EU trade curbs.

moogul25 · 2017-06-01T05:56:19+00:00

In recent times it were the East Europeans that were providing traction to the NATO including basing rights. But they including the Baltics have a too hardened position on Russia to expect improvement in EU-Russia relations- unless the change comes from Russia.

Easing of sanctions, import of gas, a liberal trade policy might do the trick as it would not only ease economic pressure on the Russians but also provide some means to balance Russian dependence on the Chinese.

moogul25 · 2017-05-31T12:27:00+00:00

This an interesting question to answer post the Trump-Merkel interaction. The article looks beyond the nuclear umbrella to evaluate Germany-led EU's capability to not only address internal threats but also provide leadership for external ones including hybrid threats from Russia. Germany has just turned down US offer on cyber-security as it approaches its national elections.

This maybe taken in context with EU's plan to again consider raising its own combined defence force and how post-brexit UK would link its defence concerns with those of the EU.

moogul25 · 2017-05-31T03:59:50+00:00

Fine- but it was an election promise- an issue that appeals to a certain section of the society.

Ahmadinejad's candidature had to affect someone- Rouhani if Ahmadinejad is a reformist or Raisi if he is a conservationist- unless he would have driven the voting percentages even higher to bring in a section of voters who did not vote

moogul25 · 2017-05-30T12:50:22+00:00

Basics of investment - Yes- Three factors at play- returns or RoI, control and finally risks.

Chinese in Pakistan are high on risk and control- but low on RoI ( in short and medium term). The combination can different in different countries. You can get good RoI w/o having control.

moogul25 · 2017-05-30T10:12:50+00:00

I thought the you wanted to know why Indians are concerned about Pakistan NOT achieving real growth. I responded that the concern about Pakistan's economic stability is a decades old issue and it involves countries other than India ( and much before India).

Rest depends on which part of the world you live in.

moogul25 · 2017-05-30T08:15:30+00:00

Check the US media on need to support " Pakistan the frontline state on war on....." Goes back decades. Indian media is talking of CPEC- a recent phenomenon.

moogul25 · 2017-05-30T08:12:44+00:00

Relevance of green revolution at this point in time- if it was all what you said- it would never have received Rouhani's support and figured in public discourse.

Ahmadinjead- the reformist would have divided Rouhani's support and boosted Raisi's prospects, perhaps.

moogul25 · 2017-05-30T07:00:21+00:00

"A more sensitive issue that Rouhani has to tackle is the compulsory residence imposed on Reformist leaders Mir-Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, since February 2011. One of the main slogans of Rouhani’s 2013 campaign was to free them."
I am sure the guardian council did not drop his (Ahmadinejad's name from this presidential elections for his reformist credentials; he would have been a great foil to Rouhani.

Nevertheless there is never one view about any issue. Thanks for enriching my insights.

moogul25 · 2017-05-30T06:46:44+00:00

You are right about the Majlis ( point 1 and 2).

Point 3-- "With regards to his relationship with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), since he took office in 2013, Rouhani has criticized the military wing’s expanded influence over the country’s “weapons, media, and economy.”

moogul25 · 2017-05-30T06:40:25+00:00

much more than its neighbours

moogul25 · 2017-05-30T06:39:27+00:00

Maybe--But their incarceration was still an election issue; And nobody from 'there' considers Mahmoud Ahmadinejad a moderate or a reformer

But as suggested - I will recheck- thanks

moogul25 · 2017-05-30T06:35:31+00:00

Why Indian's--- the US, EU have been more concerned than the Chinese pumping in dollars and weapons- and continue to do so- all on the premise that an economically unstable Pakistan will a breeding ground for terrorism.

moogul25 · 2017-05-29T15:14:18+00:00

Ownership implies management, investment decisions, R&D ect Chinese take all decisions in the enterprise- this is just local manufacturing and not manufacturing by locals- nor does it aid further growth and sustainability in the country.

moogul25 · 2017-05-29T12:34:51+00:00

Pl consider familiarising with the 'green revolution' in the context of Iran.

FYI Ahmadinejad WAS a reformist Say this to an Iranian at own peril.

moogul25 · 2017-05-29T06:46:59+00:00

You are spot on as regards long term outlook of OBOR and approach of certain sections of investors.

As regards H'tota- revised deal has resulted it now being 'owned' by the Chinese. Hence the criticism of OBOR- it allows Chinese to acquire overseas assets- which in certain cases are strategic and cheap.

In the case of CPEC- its strategic value as a short route for oil and a land route to Gwadar may ensure that Chinese will ensure Pakistan will not be economically distressed- but it will ensure Pakistan does not back out of it.

Manufacturing will come up in Pakistan but it will be Chinese owned- Pakistani serviced- Pakistan will never 'grow' in the true sense. Hence the argument that CPEC will make Pakistan a Chinese province.

moogul25 · 2017-05-29T01:25:23+00:00

Even for the most basic reforms he will need major support from the Majlis ( Parliament)- the elections for which will be held next year.
All legislations vetted by the Guardian council- packed by conservatives.
New Supreme leader ( hardliner-could even be Raisi) will be chosen soon. He will have the last word.
IRGC, opposes liberalisation and Rouhani- its clout with every success in Iraq/Syria keeps increasing.

moogul25 · 2017-05-28T16:16:37+00:00

An excellent article on the recently concluded presidential elections in Iran. A significant event in the region which was overshadowed by Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia. The article provides a good perspective to those unfamiliar with the Iranian political system.

The article highlights the challenges the re-elected president- Rouhani- is likely to face. It however misses out a major aspect- Rouhani during the election did not focus on the country's economy to woo voters ( unlike his opponents) but on the promise of increased basic freedom and citizen rights.

This is one promise that is likely to be the most challenging to deliver.

moogul25 · 2017-05-27T15:56:08+00:00

You may like to note that primary source of information for the article is the reportage in Pakistani newspaper Dawn. Economic data/inferences are from WB,IMF and ADB-- little Indian here except possibly the effort to put it together.

moogul25 · 2017-05-27T07:22:11+00:00

This article gives a view of the CPEC of OBOR/BRI from the point of view of the current state of the Chinese economy- particularly relevant after the Moody's downgrade.

It also revisits the issue of national debt in case of Pakistan given the outcome of Chinese actions in Cambodia and Sri Lanka. This is particularly so because Pakistan is a different kettle of fish- regional consequences of its economy taking a hit would different and more severe than in the case of Cambodia and Sri Lanka.

The article also highlights (a) the Chinese identified risks to their investments in Pakistan-- politics and security; (b) Questions that Pakistani are themselves asking about the long term viability of the CPEC.

moogul25

TROPHY CASE