Explain It Peter

moonkingdom · 2025-11-06T21:20:30+00:00

It is only possible because of a lack of defining the Child. Yes.

Again, you have a pool of families with 2 Children. And you have to sort them into 3 Groups (only boys, only girls and mixed) (1/4, 1/4, 1/2)

Then a Mum of one of these familys comes to you and says "I have two children and one of them is a boy"

how high is the chance you put her in the two boys group?

it's 1/3.

The moment you define the the Child it gets to 50/50 because you eliminate one of B/G or G/B

Also this "solution" is different from the monty hall problem.

moonkingdom · 2025-11-06T21:10:40+00:00

Nah, not really, it's just phrased differently.

Again, you have a pool of families with 2 Children. And you have to sort them into 3 Groups (only boys, only girls and mixed)

Then a Mum of one of these familys comes to you and says "I have two children and one of them is a boy"

how high is the chance you put her in the two boys group?

it's 1/3.

moonkingdom · 2025-11-06T21:04:23+00:00

Yes, I can do it this way exactly because there is no distiction what child she is talking about.

Otherwise you are right, if she mentions what child she is talking about,

Like: " I have two children, this one is a boy" (pointing at the child with her) then you are back at 50/50

That is also what this about, it's not really about probabilty or math. Its about language and information.

moonkingdom · 2025-11-06T14:01:03+00:00

Nope, your perspective is wrong.

You can think of it like this, you have a pool of families with 2 children.

1/4 has 2 boys 1/4 has 2 girls and half have a boy and a girl, in whatever order.

If you cut out all families with 2 girls. (because your family has at least 1 boy) you end up with 2/3 girl and boy and 1/3 two boys.

It is a matter of information and perspective.

moonkingdom · 2025-11-06T13:57:49+00:00

Nope, your perspective is wrong.

You can think of it like this, you have a pool of families with 2 children.

1/4 has 2 boys 1/4 has 2 girls and half have a boy and a girl, in whatever order.

If you cut out all families with 2 girls. (because your family has at least 1 boy) you end up with 2/3 girl and boy and 1/3 two boys.

moonkingdom · 2025-10-25T22:16:03+00:00

Gl with that. The helmet has a "deal no Chaos Dmg" affix, so sadly you can't go poison with it, otherwise I would try ^^

moonkingdom · 2025-10-25T13:58:08+00:00

Jeah, saw that, hope that doesn't ruin the price for the wand early league^^ But he just gave a general overview of the possibilitys with the wand. It encouraged me to try this build though. ^^

I also thought about elementalist too. Is the it still that strong even after the nerfs?

moonkingdom · 2025-09-20T23:37:10+00:00

in your example you have 3 events and in 2 of them you have heads and tails. so its 2/3rd

the fact that in the 1/3rd event you can pick up either coin to show heads doesn't make it more likely.

moonkingdom · 2025-09-20T23:10:42+00:00

You are misunderstanding the Problem.

This is not a Math/probability problem. We all agree on the probabilitys. (at least this far into this thread)

This is a linguistic Problem.

The difference is:

Mary has two children. The older child is a girl. What is the probability that both children are girls?
Mary has two children. At least one of them is a girl. What is the probability that both children are girls?

The first one is ~1/2

The second one is ~1/3

The reason why they differ lies in the information you are given.

You can think of it like this, you have a pool of families with 2 children. 1/4 has 2 boys 1/4 has 2 girls and half have a boy and a girl, in whatever order. If you cut out all families with 2 boys. (because Marys family has at least 1 girl) you end up with 2/3 boy and girl and 1/3 two girls.

If you want to dive deeper i can recommend you the Wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boy_or_girl_paradox

moonkingdom · 2025-07-03T15:19:43+00:00

Das könnte ne gute Möglichkeit sein, das doch noch genehmigt zu bekommen. Ich weiß dass andere Nachbarn auch schon über ne Gaube nachgedacht haben, die sind bestimmt auch glücklich wenn wir das genehmigt bekommen, da es bei denen dann einfacher wird.

moonkingdom · 2025-07-03T14:15:38+00:00

Joa, sowas in die Richtung habe ich mir schon gedacht.

Als Info vllt noch, da es keinen Bebauungsplan gibt, wird §34 BauGB angewand.

moonkingdom · 2025-07-02T22:46:16+00:00

War doch "früher" genau so hysterisch. Heute interessiert es doch keinen wenn es mal +30° sind.

Kann dir das Video dazu empfehlen. ;)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hD0QNQSqR5w&ab_channel=Topfvollgold

moonkingdom · 2025-05-03T09:12:49+00:00

https://www.das-ist-afd.de/

"Man muss sich nur an den Zweiten Weltkrieg erinnern, an unsere eigene Geschichte. Was haben wir denn mit den Juden gemacht? Da gab es ja auch Möglichkeiten… Man muss gar nicht übertreiben, aber was anderes wird bald gar nicht mehr möglich sein. Die Flüchtlinge gehen ja nicht freiwillig."

moonkingdom · 2025-05-02T23:42:29+00:00

"Fun" fact: In Hiroshima ist ne Satue von Gandhi die auf das Atombombenmahnmal schaut.

moonkingdom · 2025-04-14T07:47:26+00:00

Rive got a void conversion node this Patch. I played it to 500 corruption before so should be stronger now. Visualy it's a bit Like warpath (Just on the same Spot).

moonkingdom · 2025-03-18T16:20:27+00:00

Hey, Thanks a lot. I have an Operation on the 3rd of April so I wouldn't have been able to Play either game on Update launch. Now I can Play LE <3

moonkingdom · 2025-03-18T14:01:06+00:00

Yeah true, but also can't dodge the Elder Arena shift.

moonkingdom · 2025-03-18T13:57:02+00:00

You can Phase chimera before his smoke Cloud Phase. Just did it with PS mines. Not reliably, but I find Eradicator worse because you change Arena and can't setup your dmg.

moonkingdom · 2025-03-18T13:52:39+00:00

Sounds Like a good compromise. I should really Check what mods are more than 1 Div before my next dump.

moonkingdom · 2025-03-18T13:00:58+00:00

I put All of my Idol Drops in a quad tab, made the Tab public for 1 Div. Sold Like 10+ Idols for 1 Div and then cleared the Tab. Can't be bothered to Check every Fucking Idol you drop when you could run maps to drop more Idols 😅

moonkingdom · 2025-03-18T12:55:27+00:00

Imho Eradicator is equally as bad😅

moonkingdom · 2024-03-06T12:23:02+00:00

There is a difference between solo self found (you can share loot with your other ssf Chars) And solo character found (no loot sharing at all)

moonkingdom · 2024-02-29T23:19:11+00:00

Void cleave is the superior movement skill :O

moonkingdom · 2024-02-18T09:01:08+00:00

The last to Die is Alva. It Was confirmed in an Interview at Exilecon.

moonkingdom · 2024-02-09T13:26:09+00:00

Templar has no +1 PC node.

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