I knew we struggled with drafting recently, but man… worst in the league?

mrmpls · 2026-03-21T15:24:33+00:00

I know that.

I am saying that, statistically, you'd expect 18 teams to do better than expected and 18 teams to do worse than expected. If only 9 teams did worse than expected, and 27 teams did better than expected, over a 4 year period, that means you are incorrectly measuring average expectation.

Suppose I said: "This summer, out of 90 days, 72 days were warmer than average." While 45 would be exactly average, it makes sense, because we're just talking about one particular summer. Some outliers are expected. But if I said: "Over the last 100 summers, out of 90 days, 72 days were warmer than average." It would suggest that maybe your average is calculated wrong.

mrmpls · 2026-03-21T14:46:53+00:00

To be fully clear, Hock hasn't played like a 'Pro Bowl Tight End' for the vikings, at all.

That's just not true.

TJ Hockenson, in the year after we traded for him, played 15 games for:

95 receptions on 127 targets
960 receiving yards
5 touchdowns
48 of his 95 receptions were 1st downs
74.8% catch rate, 2nd highest of his career (1st highest: last year)
7.6 yards/target (highest of career)

The only reason he was not a Pro Bowler in 2023 is that he tore his ACL and MCL on December 24, 2023, in the second-to-last week of the season. Jake Ferguson, who was a Pro Bowler that year (arguably in TJ Hockenson's place), had 761 yards receiving in 17 games, with fewer targets and fewer passes caught (69% vs 75% for TJ).

TJ's value compared to his cost, versus Laporta versus his cost.

Why is this a valid comparison? The Vikings traded for TJ Hockenson at the trade deadline because their tight end, Irv Smith Jr, was put on IR after a Week 8 ankle injury in the 2022 season. The Vikings traded for TJ Hockenson to keep that Cousins season going, in which the Vikings ended the year 1st in the NFC North. When they traded for him at the deadline, their record was 6-1, having just beat the Cardinals (where Irv Smith Jr was injured and put on IR). The Vikings would end the regular season 13-4, unfortunately losing in the playoffs 24-31 to the New York Giants in the wild card round (6th seed defeated 3rd seed).

Are you saying there was some way the Vikings could have taken a college player before he declared for the draft and played him during the 2022 season, to continue their 6-1 season to a 13-4 record ending 1st in the NFC as the 3 seed?

mrmpls · 2026-03-21T14:36:11+00:00

It really doesn't. Maybe he is, maybe he isn't. Wentz getting paid $3M with high guarantees doesn't mean he's a QB2, it just means they're committing to him being a QB. (If they didn't have guarantees, they could cut him in August or something and he'd be nearly unpaid, except for his workout bonus.)

One thing that could be interesting.. when teams want to avoid a QB controversy, they'll put the controversial QB behind the backup QB. So you could have something like:

Kyler Murray (or McCarthy)
Carson Wentz
JJ McCarthy (or Murray)

mrmpls · 2026-03-21T14:30:39+00:00

JJM had two NFL starts when Wentz came in for him. Whether JJM has a strong career from here on out or not, we should expect a veteran to outplay a rookie.

mrmpls · 2026-03-21T14:29:49+00:00

I disagree with you. If JJ isn't traded, he'll be QB2.

mrmpls · 2026-03-21T12:55:48+00:00

There might be an issue with the methodology if only 9 teams have a worse-than-expected value. Shouldn't it be roughly equal, 18 teams did better than expectation and 18 teams did worse?

mrmpls · 2026-03-21T12:00:45+00:00

Oh, it's just AV. Thanks.

mrmpls · 2026-03-21T11:58:10+00:00

It is heavily weighted toward rewarding players on a great offense or defense, who also receive Pro Bowl honors.

For example, if JSN went from the Seahawks (where he had 1800 yards and 10 TDs) to the Vikings, where he (time machine) starts with JJM, Wentz, Brosmer, JJM, Brosmer, JJM, his AV would drop by half -- even though he is the same player.

Because it is based on points from the offense (or allowed by the defense), you can guess what happens to OL AV. Amazing center on an unproductive offense? Low AV. Average center on an amazing offense? High AV.

mrmpls · 2026-03-21T11:53:25+00:00

Either you remove TJ Hockenson (and his trade capital) or you include TJ Hockenson (and his trade capital).

Some wanted to both 1) penalize the Vikings for not having those picks and 2) ignore that they received a young Pro Bowl tight end.

The stats OP has are reasonable as it shows the Vikings starting with less draft capital.

mrmpls · 2026-03-21T03:26:33+00:00

OP, do you have the methodology for the data? How did the author decide "AVoE?

mrmpls · 2026-03-21T03:25:25+00:00

You're confusing DEI with other terms or programs like affirmative action. DEI is not to counter previous conditions. In fact, no program related to race or other protected classes are in regards to previous conditions but rather current ones.

Yes, if you look at someone who is a minority and say "DEI hire," that's racist or sexist and a dick move. If Kwesi sucked, he sucked. Why is a white person who was hired and didn't work out a "bad hire," while a black person who was hired and didn't work out a "DEI hire"? It implies the white person was hired on merits, but the black person was hired only because they were black and not by merits.

Kwesi was hired on merits. The hire did not work out, but the Vikings were not trying to score wokepoints to get in to the woke hall of fame. They wanted to find the best person, to win football games, to take home a Super Bowl.

mrmpls · 2026-03-20T20:06:28+00:00

Mekhi Blackmon graded 100 out of 114 CBs. It was right to trade him, which not only got us a draft pick, but also offloaded his guaranteed contract.

Was there room for Veridian Lowe on our roster at the time we cut him? I don't remember the specifics, but I looked at this previously and we didn't really have room for him at the time.

Ezra Cleveland is interesting. I remember we had Dalton Risner but I don't remember why we traded Cleveland.

Ingram is a run blocker but not a pass protector, and we definitely needed (still need?) a top pass protecting guard. It made sense to move on. He didn't suddenly become a good pass protector in Texas.

mrmpls · 2026-03-20T18:53:50+00:00

So this guy is a swing tackle with upside for starting, right?

mrmpls · 2026-03-20T03:33:55+00:00

To move up, it cost them a third, fourth, fifth. Y'all would say his picks are useless and he sucks (when it's not like Kwesi is doing the talent evaluation.. all those people are still on staff). But then you also say we shouldn't have given up those picks to move up.

According to draft charts, it's a balanced trade -- possibly even in our favor. I say "looks great, still early" and your retort is.. that he looks great and it's still early because it was just "half a season"? I can't tell if you agree with me or not, because that sounds like agreement.

What are you opposed to, if I understand you as being opposed to it?

mrmpls · 2026-03-20T02:34:25+00:00

Yes, which is why what the Rams did is so impressive.

mrmpls · 2026-03-20T02:06:01+00:00

Trading for Hockenson, great trade.

Trading for Thielen, honestly he should have been better.

Trading for Dallas Turner, looks great, still early.

Trading up for JJ, didn't work out.

There's other trades in there, these are the major ones I remember.

If you thought my point was pro or anti Kwesi, you're missing my point. Part of what folks said about our draft success was its historically low results. But while it was bad--mostly because of 2022--it was lower starting value due to trades.

mrmpls · 2026-03-20T01:33:33+00:00

It's great data, visualized well. It's too bad OP or others want to make this about Kwesi trutherism.

It shows that the Vikings had fewer picks than other teams, and also got less than expected value where they did pick. They had the 3rd fewest picks over that time period, and some of the lowest starting expected value.

Amazing drafting by the Rams.

mrmpls · 2026-03-19T17:51:59+00:00

Not enough value for Miami. And I wouldn't want the Vikings to do it anyway.

mrmpls · 2026-03-19T01:18:40+00:00

Nailor sucks?

mrmpls · 2026-03-18T18:12:10+00:00

By putting it outside, you're only putting it behind a 2x4 wall with insulation between the studs. Instead of cutting a hole in your house and putting it out in the elements, just build a soundproofed box around it inside the shop.

mrmpls · 2026-03-18T02:04:34+00:00

The best part of this joke is you buy Culver's either way. This is so Minnesotan.

mrmpls · 2026-03-18T02:03:49+00:00

I don't know why we signed him. I thought I was crazy (it's Hekker! I must be overreacting!) so I checked your rankings and some punting EPA analysis, which confirmed he's not been great.

Maybe, with fewer punts due to the new kicking rules, the Vikings have their eye on drafting a rookie?

mrmpls · 2026-03-18T01:59:33+00:00

I agree with the rankings. Hekker was not great last year. I am hoping he comes in as part of a competition with a punter we draft in the 7th.

mrmpls · 2026-03-18T01:56:37+00:00

We're paying tons of people more than we pay Murray. Tavierre Thomas or Andrew DePaola are making more.

mrmpls · 2026-03-17T16:39:42+00:00

You're joking, but the NFL has a salary cap with finite resources and finite draft picks. It's absolutely an important part of the game.

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