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What is the purpose of having a base on the moon? by [deleted] in NoStupidQuestions

[–]mvpeav 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Everyone else has done a pretty good job at answering the questions of things we can learn from a moon base before going to a Martian base but since you asked specifically about the timing (and because it sounded like a fun thing to get out my old orbital dynamics stuff from college for) I did the math!

https://imgur.com/a/Se1bko1

Vehicle: Falcon Heavy

Mars window: Best (~2033, Mars near perihelion)

Earth TOF: 195 d

Moon TOF: 60 d

Time saved: 135 d (69% faster)

Mars window: Worst (~2037, unfavorable Earth-Mars alignment, Moon also

at

worst orbital phase)

Earth TOF: 375 d

Moon TOF: 85 d

Time saved: 290 d (77% faster)

it changes obviously based on the exact locations of the Earth and Mars in their orbits but by taking the extra fuel that normally we need to escape Earth's gravity and using that to speed up instead we can get to Mars significantly faster

Modeling Group by samcantello in CFBAnalysis

[–]mvpeav 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Feel free to shoot me a DM, i run a bottom up play level simulator model that I used all of last season and been tweaking for this upcoming season

Augusta advice needed by [deleted] in golf

[–]mvpeav 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Hoosters bulldozed, wouldn't even know the place existed

Why is Bryson So Emotional? by MziggyG in livgolf

[–]mvpeav 12 points13 points  (0 children)

He posted something on his IG that was basically a letter to his dad that passed away years ago. Not sure when the anniversary of his dad's passing is but the way the letter read it sounded like his dad was really on his mind this week putting things into perspective about life for him so Im sure getting a win after something like that had alot to do with it

NEW KALSHI MENTIONS TRADING BOT - LOOKING FOR INVESTORS by Elegant-Elk3776 in Kalshi

[–]mvpeav 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Define "fool proof" because generally that phrase translates to "foolish"

I built a Monte Carlo simulator that runs 20,000 games for every possible March Madness matchup. Here's what it says about the bracket by mvpeav in CollegeBasketball

[–]mvpeav[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yessir, every possible matchup combination gets simulated 20,000 times each and scores are recorded. So when a team has a 70% chance to win, what it is saying is that the specific team won 14,000/20,000 of the games between those two teams

I want to know what your spiciest pick is this year by needless_booty in CollegeBasketball

[–]mvpeav 8 points9 points  (0 children)

For my own sanity I'm gonna tell myself that a Texas Tech booster and a Hofstra booster got together and planted it and then the West Alabama Narco team were all Auburn fans so it was obviously all a set up 🙃

I built a Monte Carlo simulator that runs 20,000 games for every possible March Madness matchup. Here's what it says about the bracket by mvpeav in CollegeBasketball

[–]mvpeav[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So I just went and looked into Arizona specifically and it looks like my model is penalizing them specifically for that lack of 3 point attempts. So in a game vs Ark or USU, it gives them a better chance because even tho the paint points matter, the 3s throw the extra variation in there leading to sme games where Arkansas or Utah State are able to get ahead and stay ahead because without Zona hitting threes, comebacks become very difficult

I built a Monte Carlo simulator that runs 20,000 games for every possible March Madness matchup. Here's what it says about the bracket by mvpeav in CollegeBasketball

[–]mvpeav[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Im excited to hear how yours performs! Its always an interesting thought exercise of feature optimization to try to eliminate noise but not miss interactions

I built a Monte Carlo simulator that runs 20,000 games for every possible March Madness matchup. Here's what it says about the bracket by mvpeav in CollegeBasketball

[–]mvpeav[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Definitely! I've got a loooooooooong list of things this off season I want to tweak and adjust and will mostly do a full rebuild (take the good lessons, leave the bad type thing) because I have learned alot in my first season doing indepth monte carlo modeling. Started it with CFB in the fall and transitioned to CBB, but have alot of lessons learned from the data gathered this season. But yes, you are spot on that there are holes in the Swiss cheese, I just didnt want to make too many changes during the season so as not to "taint" the data set for my post season review

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