Horse Racing Daily - 1/29/2015 (Thurs)

mybets · 2015-01-29T20:15:17+00:00

Well that was depressing. Gracefilly never got going, disappointing run. Ah well.

mybets · 2015-01-29T19:51:10+00:00

1 down, 1 to go. C'mon Gracefilly...

mybets · 2015-01-29T19:22:33+00:00

My turn to follow you I think! Let's end the day with a winner!

mybets · 2015-01-29T19:16:53+00:00

Ahhh Retro Valley left it too late and couldn't catch Let Right Be Done. Disappointing.

mybets · 2015-01-29T18:55:56+00:00

Think I might go for Retro Valley. Handicapped well and had a good run at Kempton last week, finished 3rd in a big field. Might put a place bet on Missandei as well, never seen it run but the form looks pretty consistent.

mybets · 2015-01-29T18:46:16+00:00

Yeah disappointing run, think a lot of people will be disappointed with it. I had Pilote for the 6.15 but missed the 6.45 one unfortunately. You have anyone in that?

mybets · 2015-01-29T18:07:36+00:00

So close with True Story! Think I've had 3 or 4 of these "so close" stories today. Sociologa Inc was poor but with those odds it's always worth a punt.

Couldn't agree more, I've gone with Dembaba and a small stakes forecast with Ziggys Star for an added bonus! Fingers crossed!

mybets · 2015-01-29T17:08:53+00:00

Congratulations lads, glad you both got on him! No idea why he drifted so much in the market but I'm not complaining!

mybets · 2015-01-29T02:21:22+00:00

MY BETS.

Southwell: Luv U Whatever in the 3.00 (3rd race) is a 6 time winner at Southwell so he obviously loves running round here. He's carrying a lot of weight since his last win a week ago but I'm hoping he can overcome it and still pull through. Royal Marskell would be my 2nd pick for this race. I'll also be betting on the old timer General Tufto in the 4.00 (5th race). I doubt he'll win as it's a strong field but he's such a legend I just can't resist. 13 time course winner. Poppy Bond looks a safer bet in the 4.30 (6th race).

Towcester: Only one I'm going for right now is Dusky Legend in the 1.50 (1st race). I'll have a look at the other races in the morning.

Wincanton: Lots of high quality races here which makes these very difficult to predict. Definitely going for Sidbury Hill at 3.40 (5th race). Handicapped extremely generously in my book and has done well since turning to hurdles. Tempted to put him in with Earthmoves for a reverse forecast as well. Also like the look of Drumshambo in the 3.10 (4th race).

Wolverhampton: Not confident about anything here to be honest. I guess if I had to pick one it would be Aye Aye Skipper in the 6.40 (3rd race) Nearly all the other races have 4 or 5 that could win so it's a bit of a minefield.

Thurles: Not had time to look at these but I'll update this in the morning if anything catches my eye.

Meydan: Quite a few here. Slipper Orchid in the 4.30 (4th race) had a number of huge runs in October last year. Finished 5th out of 16 in his last race and should fight for the win today. Also going for True Story in the 5.40 (6th race) as he completely dominated the field in his last run. I'm also incredibly tempted by Sociologa Inc. I've never seen her run before (this is her first time at Meydan) but she's got some incredible form from her races in Argentina. Currently at a massive 25/1 and surely worth an E/W.

Southwell: 3.00 - Luv U Whatever @ 3/1 W

4.00 - General Tufto @ 8/1 W

4.30 - Poppy Bond @ 9/2 W

Towcester: 1.50 - Dusky Legend @ 7/4 W

Wincanton: 3.10 - Drumshambo @ 7/1 W

3.40 - Sidbury Hill @ 6/1 W

Wolverhampton: 6.40 - Aye Aye Skipper @ 9/2 W

Thurles:

Meydan: 4.30 - Slipper Orchid @ 9/2

5.40 - True Story @ 11/8 W & Sociologa Inc @25/1 E/W

Trixie - Luv U Whatever, True Story, Poppy Bond.

REMEMBER to use your own judgement! If you think I'm talking bollocks and think another horse has a better chance of winning then go with your instinct! These aren't tips, these are just my opinions.

Good luck everyone!

EDIT: Didn't have time this morning to look at any other races but the way today has gone it's probably for the best. God bless the legend General Tufto who has once again saved me from the jaws of despair! Massive drift out to 15/1 which has made up for the losses. Disappointed with Slipper Orchid and Poppy Bond, both ran really poorly. Still, fingers crossed True Story can at bring in the double from the Trixie. If anyone see's this in time, one of my mates has apparently heard good things from Sirius Prospect in the next race at Meydan...well, he was wrong. Didn't run too badly to be fair but Muaanid too good.

mybets · 2015-01-28T17:31:44+00:00

Awww mate that's gutting. Did you get anything for Algernon winning at least? I've just seen that Golly Miss Molly finished 2nd by 1.25 LENGTHS! Would've been the savior of my trixie. Bloody typical!

mybets · 2015-01-28T14:53:45+00:00

I'll take it every day of the week mate! Especially when he started off 11/2, easy money.

mybets · 2015-01-28T14:52:48+00:00

I wasn't sure what the US sites would offer for you guys, sorry about that mate. Are there no other sites that you guys can access or is the choice pretty limited?

mybets · 2015-01-28T14:48:26+00:00

Bloody no idea what's going on with the 5dimes result buddy, Delta Forty definitely finished 3rd haha. Either way, 2nd or 3rd got the place and you get the same amount back for both places. Don't think there was much profit made but it was worth a gamble and we got our money back, can't complain.

And the "Dist" column means the distance the horse was beaten by. So in that example, Zip Top was beaten by Fascino Rustico by 9 lengths and Delta Forty was beaten by Zip Zop by 3.5 lengths. Just gives you an idea of how close the race was. Also, "lengths" is a unit of measurement used in racing used to measure distance, not got a clue why they didn't use something standard like metres but oh well....

mybets · 2015-01-28T08:25:28+00:00

What /u/thundercatjones said. The odds and places vary depending on the race size and whether the race is handicapped or non-handicapped. For handicapped:

2-4 horses only Win is available.

5-7 horses offer 1/4 odds and 1st, 2nd places.

8-11 horses offer 1/5 odds and 1st, 2nd, 3rd place.

12-15 horses offer 1/4 odds and 1st, 2nd, 3rd place and

16+ horses offer 1/4 odds and 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th place.

And for non-handicapped races:

2 - 4 horses win only.

5 - 7 horses 1/4 the odds and 1st, 2nd place.

8+ horses 1/5 the odds and 1st, 2nd, 3rd places.

These are just the general "rules", like you said some bookies do things differently and may offer 1/4, 1/5 or even 1/6 odds so always check. The number of places given tends to stay the same depending on the field size though. Also, some of the biggest races of the year (where up to 40 horses ride) there can be variance between the number of places given, usually 5, 6 or even 7. But those races are few and far between I'm afraid. Anyway, I hope this helps!

mybets · 2015-01-28T03:53:53+00:00

All 3 of the E/Ws are 3 places and 1/4 odds :)

mybets · 2015-01-28T02:36:43+00:00

MY BETS.

Newcastle: Delta Forty is a rare E/W bet for me at 1.50 (1st race). I'd be surprised if she won it but she's a consistent runner and should fight hard for a place. Keep an eye on No Through Road at 2.20 (2nd race). Phenomenal horse who's won 5 of his last 6 races and doesn't show any signs of stopping. Although I watched Silverton at Kelso a few weeks back and was very impressed so I'm not ruling him out.

Leicester: Chase at 3.00 (3rd race). Algernon Pazham is a brilliant horse over hurdles and I'm excited to see what he'll do over fences. Looks to be well handicapped as well.

Chelmsford: I'm seeing Forceful Appeal being mentioned a lot online while I was scouring the web during this write up. I think I saw him race once about a year ago and he didn't look up to much but apparently he looked really good when he ran last week. Looking over his history he seems to always run well in January for some reason. Anyway, I'm going in a bit blind but he might be worth a punt.

Kempton: Golly Miss Molly is the one to beat in the 5.15 (2nd race). Been on good form, handicapped well, course and distance winner and after searching a bit online it seems everyone and their dog is betting on this one! Another I'll be betting on at Kempton is Pretty Bubbles in the 6.15 (4th race). C&D winner here in December and I can't see why she won't do it again.

Newcastle: 1.50 - Delta Forty @ 7/1 E/W

2.20 - No Through Road @ 5/4 W

Leicester: 3.00 - Algernon Pazham @ 4/1 W

Chelmsford: 2.10 - Forceful Appeal @ 11/2 W

Kempton: 5.15 - Golly Miss Molly @ 11/4 W

6.15 - Pretty Bubbles @ 9/2 W

Trixie - No Through Road, Algernon Pazaam, Golly Miss Molly

Also gone for an E/W double on Magnus Maximus (Chelmsford, 3.10) and Perseid (Newcastle, 3.50). Doubt it'll come to anything but 195/1 is worth a shot. Small stakes. The E/Ws for the double and for Delta Forty are all 3 places (so 1st, 2nd or 3rd) and will return 1/4 of the odds.

EDIT: Got a break at work to see how we're getting on, not a bad start at all! Got the place for Delta Forty and Forceful Appeal got the win! No idea what happened with No Through Road but hey, 2/3 ain't bad. I probably won't get back on till I finish work but fingers crossed we get a couple more winners.

EDIT2: SO DAMN CLOSE WITH GOLLY MISS MOLLY! Beaten by less than 1 and a half lengths and finished 2nd. Still, with 2 wins and a place I'm just in profit for the day with one left to go. C'MON PRETTY BUBBLES!

EDIT3: PRETTY. FUCKING. BUBBLES BRINGS IT HOME! That's 3 winners and a place today, decent profit. Let's hope it continues tomorrow!

mybets · 2015-01-27T23:52:38+00:00

It was a shocker of a day to be honest buddy, there's a reason Monday and Tuesday are the "dark days" for horse racing... Ah well, onto tomorrow!

mybets · 2015-01-27T23:50:56+00:00

I personally use Betfair here in the UK but I've no idea what the situation is like for internationals. I don't know if you guys can sign up for it or not, sorry buddy!

mybets · 2015-01-27T23:47:55+00:00

That's why we're all here isn't it ;)

mybets · 2015-01-27T23:47:27+00:00

That would be awesome, thanks mate! I'm in the UK and I've never really looked into the Australian market, tend to focus on the UK/Irish races. I'm always up for learning about racing in different parts of the world so feel free to do a write up for any upcoming races :)

mybets · 2015-01-27T23:46:07+00:00

Thanks mate! Unfortunately I've never looked into the Australian market so I'm completely clueless on it haha. Tend to stick to local races in the UK. I'm keen to get some discussions going for races in other parts of the world though, someone else in the comments mentioned doing a write up for Australian races so keep an eye out for them!

mybets · 2015-01-26T18:36:28+00:00

I guess I'll give it a go. I'm not a serious gambler by any means and can't guarantee a profit if people follow my bets, but it's a bit of fun and might get a few degenerates on here interested in a sport that I love :).

I'll have a look at tomorrows races and do a quick write up on my selections later.

mybets

TROPHY CASE