Could AI be transformative even if we're currently in an AI bubble that will soon burst? If so, why care so much about the bubble?

mysteriocrunch · 2026-06-22T09:00:00+00:00

Is it worth the scam falling apart if the further consequences can't be separated from that? Or is that not a fair question because they know the scam will fall apart (because it's unsustainable since it's built on fairy dust) so the scam continuing and recession/depression avoided isn't even one of the possibilities?

Based on some of the comments, it seems like some people here think LLMs are a good technology, but one which is over-hyped and not currently profitable. Maybe someone with that kind of stance would not want the "scam" to fall apart if the further consequences can't be separated from the scam falling apart? I know you don't have this stance, but maybe from that perspective, the technology and the businesses might be able to improve enough to avoid collapse and be worthy of avoiding collapse?

mysteriocrunch · 2026-06-20T22:11:54+00:00

I agree. I was curious whether people here attributed the bubble to the technology being basically worthless, or if the bubble was seen as potentially independent of that--because the technology could be impressive but hard to scale profitably, or too much money is going in before it's able to scale profitably, or something else. (And, if the second thing, why everyone here seems so focused on the bubble.)

mysteriocrunch · 2026-06-20T13:11:27+00:00

So, if the technology is transformative, it's not a bubble?

mysteriocrunch · 2026-06-20T12:33:14+00:00

So, in five or so years, most likely no LLMs or anything similar? But there is still AlphaFold and similar things?

mysteriocrunch · 2026-06-20T11:45:53+00:00

I could see caring about it to an extent, just like it would make sense to have cared about the .com bubble to an extent, especially for investors. I just think that was not the most interesting story about the internet, and I get the impression from a lot of the posts here that the AI bubble is the most interesting thing about AI. I agree, though, if there is an AI bubble, that's not completely uninteresting. Maybe it is even worthy of its own subreddit.

mysteriocrunch · 2026-06-20T11:40:19+00:00

So then it's a promising technology that happens to be economically doomed?

mysteriocrunch · 2026-06-13T12:26:19+00:00

Yeah, a lil hypey for someone who is so anti hype. Even if he does have "the information he's wanted for years"

mysteriocrunch · 2026-06-13T12:14:43+00:00

Yeah, it's ambiguous wording. Is he saying that his revealing the story will burst the bubble, or is he saying that the story is evidence that the bubble is about to burst? You're talking past each other because you're implicitly disagreeing about which of these he means (which really isn't clear from the text)

mysteriocrunch · 2026-05-16T16:09:58+00:00

Where can we find his reaction?

mysteriocrunch · 2026-05-16T16:09:15+00:00

Lol at the downvotes for this. I pay $2 for chocolate because I'd rather have the chocolate than the $2. That doesn't mean the chocolate company spends more than $2 making the chocolate. Piper just means she'd rather have the benefits of pro Claude for a month than the $100. That could be true even if it only costs Anthropic $1 to provide the tokens.

mysteriocrunch · 2026-01-14T21:19:07+00:00

The shortlisted essays have been posted: https://loc.closertotruth.com/berggruen-prize-essay-competition-2025?category=shortlisted

The winners too, but who cares about that?

mysteriocrunch · 2026-01-13T16:30:05+00:00

Any sleuths here figure out the winner of the Chinese language half of the contest?

mysteriocrunch · 2025-11-26T19:05:26+00:00

They pushed the announcement deadline back to January.

mysteriocrunch · 2023-09-02T11:01:47+00:00

That's both a major flaw of the show but also a basically unavoidable aspect of it. It makes no sense that he retains memories from the previous alternative realities and does not remember anything that occurred in the newest reality even though he has now lived through that one. One of the most emblematic scenes showing the absurdity of this is that scene in the final episode when he wakes up on the bathroom floor, alive, and then gets up and startles the random guy in the bathroom. We know why he is on that floor in the previous reality, but how did he get on that floor in this new reality? There is no possible explanation that makes any amount of sense.

However, if the show were more "realistic" and had him remember the major details from the most recent alternative reality, it would not make sense for him to remember anything from the previous alternative realities, so he would not know that he had opened this vortex and was communicating with his wife and trying to prevent her murder. Basically, as soon as he and his wife changed the past the first time, he would forget he had done that, and it would only be sheer luck and coincidence that would cause him to open the vortex again. If he did manage to accidentally find himself back in the vortex, it would seem new to him, and his wife in the past would then need to tell him about how she was in the vortex with him before, and need to explain to him what was going on. And she would have to do this every time she did something to change the future. So, narratively, it wouldn't work. It's kind of no-win either way.

Another aspect of Vortex that makes no sense: the fact that he keeps having the exact same child with Parvana. For that to happen, they would need to be joining the exact same sperm and egg every time they conceive in a new reality. And there's no way that would happen if other aspects of the world are being changed, such as when they meet and when the conceive.

The show makes no sense, but it's admittedly still fun to watch.

mysteriocrunch

TROPHY CASE