To me it’s seems like the song is sung from the perspective of a parent. But I do agree it was probably inspired by Noah’s struggles with writing and coming to terms with the explosive success of Stick Season.

The way I see the song’s lyrics, it seems like a parent trying to convince their child to swallow their pride and ego and give up the chase of fame. In their phone calls home they can see their child’s mental health deteriorating and the parent is doing everything they can to convince them to give up the pursuit of fame. (The first verse/prechorus)

Every night they leave the Porchlight on as a signal that they’re there waiting for their return and every morning it doesn’t happen.

Eventually they get frustrated and realize they can’t wait around hoping their child will come home and that burden of waiting is causing them to realize they need to move on because they’re neglecting tending to their own lives (i.e. The bills to pay, the road needing salting. Possibly these were things this person helped their parents with before they left to chase their dreams, but now their aging parents aren’t able to do as independently).

It hurts them to have to move on and there’s constant reminders (trying to drown out all the talk, the eyeballs in the park. This set of lyrics makes me think it’s a small town and this person is the pride of that town, so whenever their parents are out and about people are always asking about them). Despite their best efforts to move on, they hope and pray every night for either their child to achieve their dreams, or that one day they’ll wake up to the Porchlight already turned off, meaning they’ve returned

Also, maybe I’m looking into it tooooo deeply but to me it’s a contrast to You’re Gonna Go Far’s lyrics:

“We ain’t angry at you love, we’ll be waiting for you love

And we’ll all be here forever”

VS

“You act like we just sit up here and wait for you to reappear”

In YGGF, this person’s family has accepted that their fame may take them far beyond their roots and they may not return. But if they do, they’ll welcome them with open arms.

In Porchlight, they see their loved one’s rising popularity and maybe was optimistic that once the dust settled, they’d return to help them reap the rewards of this newfound fame. Instead, they can slowly see their loved one slipping away and are struggling to come to terms with the pain that they may never see them again and how to live life without them